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Colorado AvalancheCOL 1–2 Final Florida PanthersFLA

Sunday, January 4, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL 100 1 28
Florida PanthersFLA 110 2 25

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
6:27 FLA Sam Bennett (14) Unassisted · backhand xG 0.07 0–1 ▶
11:51 COL Artturi Lehkonen (15) Josh Manson (13), Brock Nelson (15) · tip-in xG 0.06 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
18:12 FLA Aaron Ekblad (3) Unassisted · slap xG 0.09 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 53%Deserve to win47% FLA
COLFLA
2.66Expected goals2.49
1Goals (no shootout)2
1.99Expected goals, 5 on 52.05
61Shot attempts48
51Unblocked attempts40
28Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
19:10 COL No shift No shift · Landeskog, 27:06 on the bench
No shift after 1:22 of the 2nd; 9 shifts (5:58) before that
3rd Period
3:50 FLA No shift No shift · Studnicka, 11:11 on the bench
No shift from 8:48 of the 2nd to 4:54 of the 3rd; 6 shifts (4:01) before that
17:34 COL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Wedgewood, down 2–1
With 2:26 left
17:40 FLA No shift No shift · Studnicka, 10:42 on the bench
No shift after 5:26 of the 3rd; 7 shifts (4:33) before that

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ FLA shoots
Brent Burns: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:11) Sam Bennett: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:24) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:48) Jack Drury: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:49) Parker Kelly: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:29) Brock Nelson: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 2:59) Brock Nelson: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:00) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:31) A.J. Greer: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:40) Cale Makar: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:25) Brad Marchand: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:47) Brad Marchand: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:13) Sam Bennett: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 6:26) Uvis Balinskis: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:14) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:18) Mackie Samoskevich: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:43) Evan Rodrigues: backhand, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:42) Mackie Samoskevich: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:01) Eetu Luostarinen: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 10:27) Anton Lundell: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 10:29) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:39) Gavin Brindley: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:01) Cale Makar: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:05) Jeff Petry: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:19) Josh Manson: wrist, 122 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:54) Brock Nelson: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 12:08) Josh Manson: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:47) Artturi Lehkonen: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:49) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 14:03) Sam Reinhart: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 14:17) Valeri Nichushkin: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 15:29) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:39) Sam Bennett: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:53) Sam Bennett: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 17:04) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:21) Sam Reinhart: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:48) Evan Rodrigues: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 0:58) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 1:49) Niko Mikkola: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:42) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:07) Cale Makar: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:43) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:54) Victor Olofsson: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:09) Brent Burns: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:16) Brock Nelson: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 7:15) Mackie Samoskevich: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:41) Sam Malinski: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:15) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:45) Cale Makar: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:23) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:32) Brent Burns: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:25) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:05) Valeri Nichushkin: poke, 4 ft, xG 0.31 (P2 12:15) Cale Makar: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:32) Brad Marchand: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:47) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:06) Gavin Brindley: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 13:21) Ilya Solovyov: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:32) Gavin Brindley: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:48) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:55) Brad Marchand: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:56) Evan Rodrigues: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 16:13) Uvis Balinskis: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 16:31) Josh Manson: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:04) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:16) Cale Makar: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:30) Brent Burns: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:35) Parker Kelly: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:34) Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:03) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:38) Valeri Nichushkin: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 2:40) Anton Lundell: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:25) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:33) Zakhar Bardakov: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:08) Josh Manson: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:43) Brad Marchand: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:50) Anton Lundell: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 6:43) Jeff Petry: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:14) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:51) Anton Lundell: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:47) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:24) Mackie Samoskevich: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 11:47) Jack Drury: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 15:31) Brent Burns: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:52) Sam Malinski: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:05) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:21) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:52) Nathan MacKinnon: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 19:49) Sam Bennett: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:27) Artturi Lehkonen: GOAL, tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:51) Aaron Ekblad: GOAL, slap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 18:12)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
11 Brock Nelson 011 0 50.52 1125:15
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 0 50.74 3023:28
29 Nathan MacKinnon 000 -1 80.34 1023:12
88 Martin Necas 000 -1 00.00 0022:26
62 Artturi Lehkonen 101 -1 40.07 0018:34
18 Jack Drury 000 0 20.16 0113:34
17 Parker Kelly 000 0 20.06 2112:49
95 Victor Olofsson 000 0 40.05 0012:34
79 Ross Colton 000 0 10.00 1012:13
54 Gavin Brindley 000 0 30.19 1009:31
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 0 20.07 3006:40
92 Gabriel Landeskog 000 0 10.05 1005:58
Defense
8 Cale Makar 000 -1 80.16 1129:07
84 Brent Burns 000 0 50.11 0020:57
49 Samuel Girard 000 0 10.00 0020:05
42 Josh Manson 011 0 50.09 1116:22
70 Sam Malinski 000 -1 20.02 0214:23
7 Ilya Solovyov 000 0 30.01 0109:40
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 25223 .920 2.49 +0.49

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Sam Reinhart 000 +1 50.32 1023:29
15 Anton Lundell 000 +1 40.34 0019:41
17 Evan Rodrigues 000 0 70.29 2019:32
9 Sam Bennett 101 +1 60.49 3219:25
63 Brad Marchand 000 0 50.10 0019:09
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 +1 10.09 1118:58
23 Carter Verhaeghe 000 0 10.02 1113:43
11 Mackie Samoskevich 000 0 70.38 0013:24
18 A.J. Greer 000 0 10.01 2112:25
71 Luke Kunin 000 -1 10.00 1106:18
70 Jesper Boqvist 000 0 00.00 1006:14
23 Jack Studnicka 000 0 00.00 0004:33
Defense
5 Aaron Ekblad 101 +1 30.15 3026:57
42 Gustav Forsling 000 +1 00.00 3024:51
77 Niko Mikkola 000 0 20.06 3121:11
26 Uvis Balinskis 000 0 20.16 0117:05
2 Jeff Petry 000 0 30.08 1013:42
73 Donovan Sebrango 000 0 00.00 3111:23
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Daniil Tarasov 28127 .964 2.66 +1.66

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Brock Nelson C +1.92 +0.55 +0.34 +0.98 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 25:15
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +1.37 0.00 +0.48 +0.87 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 23:28
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +1.01 +0.75 +0.05 +0.10 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 18:34
42 Josh Manson D +0.82 +0.70 +0.06 +0.20 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 16:22
17 Parker Kelly C +0.57 0.00 +0.04 +0.37 +0.15 -0.02 +0.03 — 12:49
41 Scott Wedgewood G +0.49 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.49 57:12
28 Ilya Solovyov D +0.44 0.00 +0.01 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:40
93 Zakhar Bardakov C +0.39 0.00 +0.05 +0.19 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 6:40
54 Gavin Brindley C +0.34 0.00 +0.13 +0.20 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 9:31
84 Brent Burns D 0.00 0.00 +0.07 -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:57
95 Victor Olofsson L -0.04 0.00 +0.03 -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:34
18 Jack Drury C -0.11 0.00 +0.10 -0.33 0.00 +0.06 +0.05 — 13:34
49 Samuel Girard D -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 20:05
70 Sam Malinski D -0.32 0.00 +0.01 -0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 14:23
8 Cale Makar D -0.36 0.00 +0.10 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 29:07
20 Ross Colton C -0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:13
29 Nathan MacKinnon C -0.59 0.00 +0.22 -0.79 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:12
92 Gabriel Landeskog L -0.59 0.00 +0.04 -0.46 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 5:58
88 Martin Necas C -1.28 0.00 0.00 -1.24 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:26

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
40 Daniil Tarasov G +1.66 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.66 60:00
15 Anton Lundell C +1.27 0.00 +0.22 +0.91 +0.15 +0.05 -0.06 — 19:41
13 Sam Reinhart C +1.15 0.00 +0.21 +0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 23:29
5 Aaron Ekblad D +1.10 +0.75 +0.10 +0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 26:57
27 Eetu Luostarinen C +0.98 0.00 +0.06 +0.88 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 18:58
9 Sam Bennett C +0.97 +0.75 +0.32 -0.14 0.00 -0.06 +0.10 — 19:25
10 A.J. Greer L +0.68 0.00 +0.01 +0.45 +0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 12:25
2 Jeff Petry D +0.36 0.00 +0.05 +0.45 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:42
11 Mackie Samoskevich R +0.30 0.00 +0.25 +0.20 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:24
42 Gustav Forsling D +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 24:51
17 Evan Rodrigues C +0.24 0.00 +0.19 +0.15 0.00 -0.07 -0.02 — 19:32
6 Donovan Sebrango D +0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 11:23
70 Jesper Boqvist C -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.29 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 6:14
53 Jack Studnicka C -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 4:33
77 Niko Mikkola D -0.38 0.00 +0.04 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:11
26 Uvis Balinskis D -0.38 0.00 +0.10 -0.36 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 17:05
71 Luke Kunin C -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.48 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 6:18
23 Carter Verhaeghe C -0.68 0.00 +0.01 -0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:43
63 Brad Marchand L -0.82 0.00 +0.06 -0.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:09

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.