Colorado AvalancheCOL 2–4 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL	0	2	0	2	33
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	1	1	2	4	28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
19:48	TBL	Jake Guentzel (19)PP Nikita Kucherov (40), Darren Raddysh (23) · wrist xG 0.11	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:22	COL	Parker Kelly (8) Zakhar Bardakov (5), Ilya Solovyov (1) · wrist xG 0.16	1–1 ▶
9:31	COL	Brock Nelson (19) Cale Makar (36) · snap xG 0.04	2–1 ▶
17:22	TBL	Zemgus Girgensons (6) Yanni Gourde (9), Pontus Holmberg (7) · tip-in xG 0.10	2–2 ▶
3rd Period
8:31	TBL	Brandon Hagel (20) Max Crozier (9), Nikita Kucherov (41) · snap xG 0.13	2–3 ▶
18:35	TBL	Anthony Cirelli (12)EN Brandon Hagel (18), Darren Raddysh (24) · snap xG 0.57	2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 60%Deserve to win40% TBL

COL		TBL
2.98	Expected goals	3.29
2	Goals (no shootout)	4
1.94	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.80
67	Shot attempts	67
46	Unblocked attempts	48
33	Shots on goal	28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
18:38	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 61–39% COL had led since 6:07 of the 1st, by as much as 62%
3rd Period
6:10	COL	No shift	No shift · Makar, 14:18 on the bench No shift from 13:27 of the 2nd to 10:20 of the 3rd; 7 shifts (4:59) before that
17:44	COL	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Wedgewood, down 3–2 With 2:16 left; TBL scored at 18:35 of the 3rd (2–4)
19:49	COL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · COL takes the lead, 60–40% TBL had led since 18:38 of the 1st, by as much as 68%
19:50	COL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TBL 1.16–0.16 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:50 to 19:50 of the 3rd; goals 0–1

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
29	Nathan MacKinnon	0	0	0	-2	6	0.11	3	0	22:37
11	Brock Nelson	1	0	1	-1	6	0.23	0	1	22:14
88	Martin Necas	0	0	0	-2	10	0.72	4	0	21:54
43	Valeri Nichushkin	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	0	19:30
62	Artturi Lehkonen	0	0	0	-2	4	0.25	1	1	18:55
18	Jack Drury	0	0	0	+1	4	0.22	0	1	15:54
54	Gavin Brindley	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	0	14:49
79	Ross Colton	0	0	0	0	5	0.28	1	2	12:34
95	Victor Olofsson	0	0	0	0	2	0.26	0	0	11:54
17	Parker Kelly	1	0	1	+1	3	0.44	2	0	11:20
93	Zakhar Bardakov	0	1	1	+2	1	0.01	1	1	07:23
16	Taylor Makar	0	0	0	+1	2	0.07	0	1	05:29
Defense
8	Cale Makar	0	1	1	-2	7	0.17	0	5	26:04
42	Josh Manson	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	3	2	19:02
70	Sam Malinski	0	0	0	+1	6	0.06	2	2	18:51
49	Samuel Girard	0	0	0	-1	3	0.06	0	2	18:42
84	Brent Burns	0	0	0	0	6	0.07	0	1	18:19
7	Ilya Solovyov	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	2	0	12:53

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Scott Wedgewood	27	3	24	.889	2.42	-0.58

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
59	Jake Guentzel	1	0	1	-1	8	0.67	0	1	18:38
38	Brandon Hagel	1	1	2	+2	7	0.28	0	1	17:39
21	Brayden Point	0	0	0	+1	3	0.34	0	0	16:50
86	Nikita Kucherov	0	2	2	+1	4	0.15	0	0	16:20
37	Yanni Gourde	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	2	3	16:15
28	Zemgus Girgensons	1	0	1	+1	2	0.10	2	0	14:40
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	1	1	+1	3	0.06	1	1	14:27
71	Anthony Cirelli	1	0	1	+1	3	0.69	0	0	14:05
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	0	0	-2	4	0.18	0	0	13:43
20	Nick Paul	0	0	0	-1	5	0.10	3	1	12:12
17	Dominic James	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	4	0	12:08
93	Gage Goncalves	0	0	0	0	3	0.24	1	0	11:47
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	0	2	2	+2	8	0.14	1	0	24:39
90	J.J. Moser	0	0	0	+2	4	0.14	2	2	24:06
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	0	5	21:10
81	Erik Cernak	0	0	0	-1	3	0.07	4	1	20:18
24	Max Crozier	0	1	1	0	3	0.04	0	1	15:33
72	Declan Carlile	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	1	0	11:30

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	33	2	31	.939	2.98	+0.98

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
17 Parker Kelly C	+1.66	+0.75	+0.29	+0.61	0.00	+0.03	-0.02	—	11:20
93 Zakhar Bardakov C	+1.44	+0.70	0.00	+0.83	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	7:23
28 Ilya Solovyov D	+1.15	+0.55	0.00	+0.62	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:53
70 Sam Malinski D	+1.06	0.00	+0.04	+0.92	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	18:51
88 Martin Necas C	+0.87	0.00	+0.47	+0.34	+0.08	0.00	-0.02	—	21:54
8 Cale Makar D	+0.78	+0.70	+0.11	-0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.23	—	26:04
16 Taylor Makar L	+0.53	0.00	+0.04	+0.44	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	5:29
18 Jack Drury C	+0.49	0.00	+0.15	+0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:54
62 Artturi Lehkonen L	+0.39	0.00	+0.16	+0.13	+0.08	0.00	+0.03	—	18:55
29 Nathan MacKinnon C	+0.38	0.00	+0.07	+0.11	+0.15	+0.07	-0.02	—	22:37
11 Brock Nelson C	+0.35	+0.75	+0.15	-0.69	0.00	+0.11	+0.03	—	22:14
20 Ross Colton C	+0.25	0.00	+0.18	-0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	12:34
95 Victor Olofsson L	+0.10	0.00	+0.17	-0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:54
42 Josh Manson D	-0.05	0.00	+0.03	-0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	19:02
49 Samuel Girard D	-0.15	0.00	+0.04	-0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	18:42
13 Valeri Nichushkin R	-0.47	0.00	0.00	-0.62	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	19:30
41 Scott Wedgewood G	-0.58	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.58	58:02
84 Brent Burns D	-0.77	0.00	+0.05	-0.65	-0.15	0.00	-0.01	—	18:19
54 Gavin Brindley C	-0.84	0.00	0.00	-0.84	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:49

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
38 Brandon Hagel L	+2.31	+1.45	+0.18	+0.65	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	17:39
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+1.49	+0.75	+0.45	+0.36	0.00	-0.05	-0.02	—	14:05
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+1.25	+1.25	+0.10	-0.20	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	16:20
59 Jake Guentzel C	+1.01	+0.75	+0.43	-0.21	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	18:38
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	+0.99	+0.75	+0.07	+0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:40
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G	+0.98	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.98	60:00
37 Yanni Gourde C	+0.98	+0.70	0.00	+0.19	0.00	-0.08	+0.17	—	16:15
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.96	0.00	+0.03	+0.93	-0.22	0.00	+0.23	—	21:10
43 Darren Raddysh D	+0.96	+1.10	+0.09	-0.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	24:39
29 Pontus Holmberg R	+0.83	+0.55	+0.04	+0.19	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:27
24 Max Crozier D	+0.65	+0.70	+0.02	-0.12	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:33
21 Brayden Point C	+0.34	0.00	+0.22	+0.14	0.00	-0.04	+0.02	—	16:50
81 Erik Cernak D	+0.21	0.00	+0.04	+0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	20:18
93 Gage Goncalves C	+0.18	0.00	+0.16	+0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:47
90 J.J. Moser D	-0.20	0.00	+0.09	-0.37	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	24:06
20 Nick Paul L	-0.49	0.00	+0.07	-0.51	-0.08	-0.02	+0.05	—	12:12
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	-0.51	0.00	+0.12	-0.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:43
17 Dominic James C	-0.61	0.00	+0.02	-0.59	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	12:08
67 Declan Carlile D	-0.71	0.00	0.00	-0.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:30

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.