hockeystats.io

Florida PanthersFLA 1–4 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 001 1 32
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 121 4 23

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
19:36 TOR Easton Cowan (5) Nick Robertson (12), Nicolas Roy (12) · snap xG 0.22 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
0:42 TOR Matthew Knies (12) Troy Stecher (6), John Tavares (23) · tip-in xG 0.08 0–2 ▶
4:01 TOR Auston Matthews (21) Matthew Knies (26), Matias Maccelli (10) · snap xG 0.20 0–3 ▶
3rd Period
11:38 FLA Carter Verhaeghe (12) Unassisted · snap xG 0.08 1–3 ▶
19:52 TOR Bobby McMann (13)EN Nicolas Roy (13) · backhand xG 0.92 1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 45%Deserve to win55% TOR
FLATOR
2.72Expected goals4.36
1Goals (no shootout)4
1.16Expected goals, 5 on 51.76
75Shot attempts48
56Unblocked attempts37
32Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
2:50 FLA xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.25–0.09
In xG over 10 minutes, 13:40 of the 2nd to 3:40 of the 3rd; neither team scored
6:33 TOR Goalie Goalie · Woll +2.1 goals saved
0 goals on 2.12 xG, 22 shots on goal
15:58 FLA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Bobrovsky, down 3–1
With 4:02 left; TOR scored at 19:52 of the 3rd (1–4)

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Brad Marchand: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:43) Donovan Sebrango: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:35) Evan Rodrigues: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:38) A.J. Greer: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:43) Donovan Sebrango: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:48) Philippe Myers: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:20) Philippe Myers: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:17) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:38) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:46) Nick Robertson: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:17) Auston Matthews: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 5:42) Anton Lundell: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:52) Auston Matthews: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 5:58) Nick Robertson: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 7:14) Scott Laughton: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:28) Max Domi: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:06) Auston Matthews: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:07) Bobby McMann: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:25) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:07) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:16) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 144 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:38) Auston Matthews: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 15:56) John Tavares: tip-in, 82 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:42) A.J. Greer: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:19) Sam Bennett: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:13) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:30) Steven Lorentz: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:51) John Tavares: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 3:26) Troy Stecher: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:38) Brad Marchand: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:15) Simon Benoit: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:43) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 6:19) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:01) Matthew Knies: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:20) Jesper Boqvist: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:41) Philippe Myers: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:08) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:32) A.J. Greer: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 10:41) Sam Bennett: wrist, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:09) Auston Matthews: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 11:26) John Tavares: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 12:12) Luke Kunin: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:53) Jeff Petry: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:54) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:16) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:28) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:41) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:04) Sam Bennett: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:58) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:13) A.J. Greer: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:23) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 17:06) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:13) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 1:23) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.44 (P3 1:26) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 1:59) Aaron Ekblad: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:30) Anton Lundell: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 2:32) Sam Bennett: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 2:45) Anton Lundell: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:09) Sam Reinhart: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 3:31) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 3:55) Noah Gregor: backhand, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:38) Jesper Boqvist: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:42) Uvis Balinskis: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 5:02) Luke Kunin: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:08) A.J. Greer: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:40) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 6:17) Aaron Ekblad: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 6:33) Auston Matthews: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 6:40) John Tavares: tip-in, 3 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 7:10) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 7:15) Simon Benoit: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:40) Bobby McMann: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:09) Anton Lundell: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 11:51) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 12:04) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:23) Jesper Boqvist: backhand, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:55) Eetu Luostarinen: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 15:57) Anton Lundell: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:06) Sam Bennett: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:07) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:29) A.J. Greer: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 17:44) Gustav Forsling: tip-in, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:30) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:45) Simon Benoit: wrist, 149 ft, xG 0.43 (P3 19:06) Gustav Forsling: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:20) Anton Lundell: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:29) Evan Rodrigues: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:42) Easton Cowan: GOAL, snap, 7 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 19:36) Matthew Knies: GOAL, tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 0:42) Auston Matthews: GOAL, snap, 19 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 4:01) Carter Verhaeghe: GOAL, snap, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 11:38) Bobby McMann: GOAL, backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.92 (P3 19:52)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Sam Reinhart 000 -3 80.20 2022:44
15 Anton Lundell 000 -3 70.33 2021:56
9 Sam Bennett 000 0 60.28 1121:15
17 Evan Rodrigues 000 -2 100.11 3120:05
23 Carter Verhaeghe 101 0 50.57 2020:02
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 -2 20.17 1016:59
11 Mackie Samoskevich 000 -1 40.07 5014:39
18 A.J. Greer 000 0 70.32 2014:04
63 Brad Marchand 000 0 20.03 0011:41
70 Jesper Boqvist 000 0 30.11 2109:43
71 Luke Kunin 000 0 20.02 3208:51
73 Noah Gregor 000 0 10.01 2005:40
Defense
42 Gustav Forsling 000 -3 60.15 0224:43
5 Aaron Ekblad 000 0 20.14 0020:16
2 Jeff Petry 000 -1 10.03 1119:14
77 Niko Mikkola 000 0 20.03 2018:51
26 Uvis Balinskis 000 -1 20.13 1216:58
73 Donovan Sebrango 000 0 50.03 2012:13
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky 22319 .864 3.01 +0.01

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 101 +1 70.84 2119:48
74 Bobby McMann 101 0 30.96 3119:14
21 Scott Laughton 000 0 10.05 3317:52
89 Matthew Knies 112 +2 40.12 0015:59
91 John Tavares 011 +1 50.61 0014:57
10 Nicolas Roy 022 +2 00.00 2014:51
11 Max Domi 000 -1 20.01 2114:25
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 60.66 1114:05
63 Matias Maccelli 011 +2 20.18 0012:45
14 Nick Robertson 011 +1 20.12 1112:01
53 Easton Cowan 101 +1 10.22 1011:15
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 0 10.01 1110:16
Defense
28 Troy Stecher 011 0 20.03 0124:09
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 +1 30.00 0123:09
44 Morgan Rielly 000 +2 10.06 0219:50
44 Simon Benoit 000 +1 30.45 2218:00
25 Brandon Carlo 000 +2 10.00 1117:41
51 Philippe Myers 000 0 40.05 2213:43
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 32131 .969 2.72 +1.72

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
23 Carter Verhaeghe C +1.33 +0.75 +0.37 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 20:02
9 Sam Bennett C +0.37 0.00 +0.18 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 21:15
71 Luke Kunin C +0.28 0.00 +0.01 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 +0.10 — 8:51
70 Jesper Boqvist C +0.25 0.00 +0.07 +0.14 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 9:43
10 A.J. Greer L +0.24 0.00 +0.21 +0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:04
18 Noah Gregor L +0.12 0.00 +0.01 +0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 5:40
26 Uvis Balinskis D +0.10 0.00 +0.09 -0.21 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 16:58
11 Mackie Samoskevich R +0.03 0.00 +0.05 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:39
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G +0.01 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.01 56:06
77 Niko Mikkola D -0.07 0.00 +0.02 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 18:51
63 Brad Marchand L -0.11 0.00 +0.02 -0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:41
5 Aaron Ekblad D -0.14 0.00 +0.09 -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:16
6 Donovan Sebrango D -0.23 0.00 +0.02 -0.10 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:13
2 Jeff Petry D -0.32 0.00 +0.02 -0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:14
17 Evan Rodrigues C -0.36 0.00 +0.07 -0.29 -0.15 -0.04 +0.05 — 20:05
15 Anton Lundell C -0.73 0.00 +0.21 -1.11 +0.15 +0.04 -0.02 — 21:56
42 Gustav Forsling D -0.75 0.00 +0.10 -0.94 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 24:43
27 Eetu Luostarinen C -0.92 0.00 +0.11 -0.99 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:59
13 Sam Reinhart C -0.99 0.00 +0.13 -1.13 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 22:44

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
23 Matthew Knies L +2.26 +1.45 +0.08 +0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:59
60 Joseph Woll G +1.72 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.72 60:00
34 Auston Matthews C +1.48 +0.75 +0.55 +0.10 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 19:48
63 Matias Maccelli L +1.40 +0.55 +0.11 +0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:45
55 Nicolas Roy C +1.36 +1.25 0.00 +0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:51
91 John Tavares C +1.25 +0.55 +0.40 +0.36 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 — 14:57
74 Bobby McMann C +1.23 +0.75 +0.62 -0.36 +0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 19:14
89 Nick Robertson L +1.23 +0.70 +0.07 +0.25 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 12:01
53 Easton Cowan R +1.07 +0.75 +0.14 +0.33 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:15
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.97 0.00 +0.04 +1.00 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 19:50
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.87 0.00 +0.43 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:05
2 Simon Benoit D +0.85 0.00 +0.29 +0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 18:00
28 Troy Stecher D +0.80 +0.70 +0.02 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 24:09
25 Brandon Carlo D +0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 17:41
24 Scott Laughton C +0.55 0.00 +0.03 +0.36 0.00 +0.01 +0.15 — 17:52
19 Calle Jarnkrok C +0.51 0.00 +0.01 +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:16
51 Philippe Myers D +0.14 0.00 +0.03 +0.17 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 13:43
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 23:09
11 Max Domi C -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:25

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.