| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 26 |
 |
1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 43 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Scoring
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:53 | |
Connor McDavid (26)PP Evan Bouchard (31), Leon Draisaitl (38) · wrist xG 0.17 | 0–1 ▶ |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 15:53 | |
Connor McDavid (27)PS Unassisted · wrist xG 0.29 | 0–2 ▶ |
| 16:15 | |
Curtis Lazar (3) Matt Savoie (7), Mattias Janmark (6) · backhand xG 0.40 | 0–3 ▶ |
| 18:52 | |
Kasperi Kapanen (1) Leon Draisaitl (39), Vasily Podkolzin (8) · wrist xG 0.15 | 0–4 ▶ |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 3:48 | |
Ryan O'Reilly (12) Nicolas Hague (9), Luke Evangelista (25) · snap xG 0.12 | 1–4 ▶ |
| 4:03 | |
Nick Blankenburg (5) Reid Schaefer (1), Michael Bunting (14) · snap xG 0.02 | 2–4 ▶ |
| 13:46 | |
Leon Draisaitl (21) Kasperi Kapanen (3), Vasily Podkolzin (9) · snap xG 0.27 | 2–5 ▶ |
| 19:03 | |
Connor McDavid (28) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (23), Mattias Ekholm (16) · snap xG 0.21 | 2–6 ▶ |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| NSH | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.12 | Expected goals | 5.76 |
| 2 | Goals (no shootout) | 6 |
| 1.95 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 4.19 |
| 60 | Shot attempts | 75 |
| 41 | Unblocked attempts | 58 |
| 26 | Shots on goal | 43 |
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 16:20 | EDM | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.72–0.04
In xG over 10 minutes, 9:00 to 19:00 of the 2nd; goals 3–0 |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 13:50 | EDM | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.51–0.10
In xG over 10 minutes, 4:10 to 14:10 of the 3rd; goals 1–0 |
Shot map
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
Box score
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 77 | Luke Evangelista | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.15 | 0 | 1 | 20:18 |
| 9 | Filip Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 6 | 0.35 | 2 | 1 | 18:58 |
| 58 | Michael Bunting | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.21 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 |
| 90 | Ryan O'Reilly | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 2 | 17:47 |
| 22 | Cole Smith | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.12 | 2 | 0 | 16:35 |
| 56 | Erik Haula | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0 | 16:10 |
| 91 | Steven Stamkos | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | 15:41 |
| 47 | Michael McCarron | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.05 | 5 | 2 | 14:52 |
| 9 | Fedor Svechkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.29 | 3 | 0 | 14:48 |
| 49 | Reid Schaefer | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 0.17 | 2 | 0 | 13:26 |
| 17 | Tyson Jost | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 5 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 59 | Roman Josi | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 22:13 |
| 41 | Nicolas Hague | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | 1 | 2 | 19:53 |
| 76 | Brady Skjei | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | 18:14 |
| 3 | Nick Blankenburg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 | 1 | 16:59 |
| 48 | Nick Perbix | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 15:49 |
| 2 | Adam Wilsby | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 |
| 72 | Justin Barron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | 10:07 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros | 43 | 6 | 37 | .860 | 5.76 | -0.24 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 97 | Connor McDavid | 3 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 12 | 1.72 | 0 | 0 | 22:28 |
| 93 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 |
| 18 | Zach Hyman | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 0.68 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 |
| 29 | Leon Draisaitl | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 |
| 92 | Vasily Podkolzin | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 3 | 0 | 16:40 |
| 96 | Jack Roslovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.32 | 0 | 1 | 15:48 |
| 42 | Kasperi Kapanen | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0.21 | 5 | 0 | 14:33 |
| 22 | Matt Savoie | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 |
| 13 | Mattias Janmark | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.13 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 |
| 53 | Isaac Howard | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.36 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 |
| 20 | Curtis Lazar | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.66 | 1 | 0 | 08:44 |
| 19 | Adam Henrique | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 02:26 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 2 | Evan Bouchard | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 0.23 | 0 | 1 | 25:52 |
| 14 | Mattias Ekholm | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 0.09 | 1 | 0 | 23:36 |
| 25 | Darnell Nurse | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 0.01 | 3 | 7 | 21:52 |
| 24 | Spencer Stastney | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 16:34 |
| 75 | Alec Regula | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 0.04 | 0 | 3 | 16:08 |
| 49 | Ty Emberson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 2 | 13:55 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram | 26 | 2 | 24 | .923 | 2.12 | +0.12 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77 Luke Evangelista R | +1.12 | +0.55 | +0.10 | +0.27 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 20:18 |
| 90 Ryan O'Reilly C | +0.85 | +0.75 | +0.26 | -0.17 | 0.00 | -0.07 | +0.08 | — | 17:47 |
| 37 Nick Blankenburg D | +0.36 | +0.75 | +0.05 | -0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 16:59 |
| 58 Michael Bunting L | +0.28 | +0.55 | +0.14 | -0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 18:24 |
| 9 Filip Forsberg L | +0.26 | 0.00 | +0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 18:58 |
| 41 Nicolas Hague D | +0.16 | +0.70 | +0.01 | -0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 19:53 |
| 20 Justin Barron D | +0.14 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 10:07 |
| 74 Juuse Saros G | -0.24 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.24 | 60:00 |
| 49 Reid Schaefer L | -0.31 | +0.70 | +0.11 | -1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:26 |
| 56 Erik Haula L | -0.32 | 0.00 | +0.10 | -0.41 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 16:10 |
| 40 Fedor Svechkov C | -0.49 | 0.00 | +0.19 | -0.70 | 0.00 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 14:48 |
| 48 Nick Perbix D | -0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 15:49 |
| 59 Roman Josi D | -1.05 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -1.19 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 22:13 |
| 91 Steven Stamkos C | -1.20 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -1.23 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.03 | — | 15:41 |
| 83 Adam Wilsby D | -1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.06 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:34 |
| 76 Brady Skjei D | -1.39 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -1.28 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 18:14 |
| 36 Cole Smith R | -1.46 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:35 |
| 47 Michael McCarron C | -1.56 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -1.57 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 14:52 |
| 17 Tyson Jost C | -1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.54 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 12:38 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97 Connor McDavid C | +4.66 | +2.25 | +1.12 | +1.15 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 22:28 |
| 2 Evan Bouchard D | +2.55 | +0.70 | +0.15 | +1.51 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 25:52 |
| 22 Matt Savoie C | +2.53 | +0.70 | +0.44 | +1.57 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 13:32 |
| 14 Mattias Ekholm D | +2.49 | +0.55 | +0.06 | +1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 23:36 |
| 29 Leon Draisaitl C | +2.36 | +2.00 | +0.31 | -0.03 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.02 | — | 19:12 |
| 20 Curtis Lazar C | +2.13 | +0.75 | +0.43 | +0.95 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 8:44 |
| 93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | +1.87 | +0.70 | +0.10 | +1.06 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 20:15 |
| 13 Mattias Janmark C | +1.68 | +0.55 | +0.09 | +1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 12:35 |
| 18 Zach Hyman L | +1.63 | 0.00 | +0.44 | +1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 19:21 |
| 42 Kasperi Kapanen R | +1.54 | +1.45 | +0.14 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 14:33 |
| 92 Vasily Podkolzin R | +1.40 | +1.10 | +0.02 | +0.29 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 16:40 |
| 24 Spencer Stastney D | +1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 16:34 |
| 49 Ty Emberson D | +1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | — | 13:55 |
| 53 Isaac Howard L | +0.91 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 12:34 |
| 28 Jack Roslovic C | +0.88 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.62 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.03 | — | 15:48 |
| 25 Darnell Nurse D | +0.67 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.31 | — | 21:52 |
| 39 Connor Ingram G | +0.27 | 0.00 | — | — | +0.15 | — | — | +0.12 | 59:55 |
| 19 Adam Henrique C | -0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.20 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 2:26 |
| 75 Alec Regula D | -0.60 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.63 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 16:08 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.