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Ottawa SenatorsOTT 1–3 Final Utah MammothUTA

Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 100 1 33
Utah MammothUTA 201 3 21

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:59 UTA Lawson Crouse (10) Clayton Keller (24), Mikhail Sergachev (24) · wrist xG 0.14 0–1 ▶
7:20 UTA John Marino (3) Clayton Keller (25), Nate Schmidt (11) · slap xG 0.25 0–2 ▶
17:41 OTT Ridly Greig (6) Artem Zub (10), Jake Sanderson (23) · wrist xG 0.40 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
5:41 UTA Daniil But (2) Jack McBain (7), Brandon Tanev (2) · wrist xG 0.36 1–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

OTT 54%Deserve to win46% UTA
OTTUTA
3.03Expected goals2.78
1Goals (no shootout)3
1.62Expected goals, 5 on 52.11
71Shot attempts48
49Unblocked attempts34
33Shots on goal21

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
17:41 OTT Deserve to win Deserve to win · OTT takes the lead, 66–34%
UTA had led since 7:20 of the 1st, by as much as 71%
17:50 OTT xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced UTA 1.09–0.04
In xG over 10 minutes, 7:50 to 17:50 of the 1st; goals 1–0
2nd Period
12:20 OTT xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced UTA 1.22–0.19
In xG over 10 minutes, 2:20 to 12:20 of the 2nd; neither team scored
3rd Period
17:50 OTT Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Meriläinen, down 3–1
With 2:10 left
17:53 UTA Goalie Goalie · Vejmelka +2.0 goals saved
1 goal on 3.01 xG, 32 shots on goal
18:33 OTT Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Meriläinen, down 3–1
With 1:27 left

Shot map

OTT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ UTA shoots
Sean Durzi: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:24) Lawson Crouse: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:33) Clayton Keller: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:54) Ridly Greig: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:16) Clayton Keller: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:17) Nick Schmaltz: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:29) Stephen Halliday: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:53) Jack McBain: backhand, 121 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:20) Ridly Greig: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 12:02) Thomas Chabot: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:13) Jake Sanderson: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:46) Mikhail Sergachev: backhand, 166 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:08) Stephen Halliday: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 14:35) David Perron: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:25) Drake Batherson: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 16:23) Artem Zub: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:38) Dylan Cozens: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:50) Michael Carcone: backhand, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:35) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 18:37) Sean Durzi: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:56) Alexander Kerfoot: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:36) Mikhail Sergachev: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:07) Nick Schmaltz: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 1:27) Tim Stützle: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:10) Dylan Cozens: poke, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 3:25) Tim Stützle: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:54) Brady Tkachuk: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 4:13) Jake Sanderson: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:28) Thomas Chabot: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:45) Claude Giroux: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:04) Ridly Greig: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:49) Sean Durzi: slap, 86 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 6:29) Jake Sanderson: snap, 177 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:31) Tim Stützle: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:12) Ridly Greig: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:15) Michael Carcone: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 8:41) Claude Giroux: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 9:10) David Perron: tip-in, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:35) Brandon Tanev: backhand, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:12) Claude Giroux: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 11:45) Brady Tkachuk: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 11:57) Drake Batherson: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:13) Claude Giroux: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:32) Claude Giroux: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:46) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 14:19) Michael Amadio: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 15:28) Claude Giroux: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:31) Daniil But: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 15:55) Daniil But: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:28) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:45) Drake Batherson: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 19:54) Ridly Greig: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 0:32) Shane Pinto: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:33) Artem Zub: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:49) Shane Pinto: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 2:43) Drake Batherson: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:45) Drake Batherson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:46) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:12) Brandon Tanev: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:35) Daniil But: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:37) Jack McBain: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:37) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 6:52) Clayton Keller: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 7:07) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 177 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:11) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:06) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:18) Artem Zub: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:00) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:03) Alexander Kerfoot: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:43) Jack McBain: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:03) Michael Amadio: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:39) Lawson Crouse: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 13:38) Lawson Crouse: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:39) Drake Batherson: backhand, 91 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:15) Sean Durzi: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:58) Artem Zub: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:40) Lawson Crouse: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 17:23) Jake Sanderson: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:53) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:59) Lawson Crouse: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 3:59) John Marino: GOAL, slap, 17 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 7:20) Ridly Greig: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.40 (P1 17:41) Daniil But: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 5:41)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Tim Stützle 000 0 30.18 2024:29
28 Claude Giroux 000 +1 80.49 1118:59
19 Drake Batherson 000 0 70.31 0018:13
24 Dylan Cozens 000 -1 30.25 3017:49
8 Brady Tkachuk 000 -3 40.38 6117:38
71 Ridly Greig 101 +1 60.66 1017:13
12 Shane Pinto 000 -3 20.13 0216:24
22 Michael Amadio 000 +1 30.09 1013:57
20 Fabian Zetterlund 000 -2 10.01 1011:24
16 David Perron 000 0 20.04 2009:37
21 Nick Cousins 000 0 00.00 1007:53
34 Stephen Halliday 000 0 20.20 2007:16
Defense
85 Jake Sanderson 011 0 110.12 0326:12
72 Thomas Chabot 000 -2 90.11 0122:18
2 Artem Zub 011 0 70.05 0319:25
4 Nick Jensen 000 -2 00.00 0117:01
10 Jordan Spence 000 0 10.00 2014:55
43 Tyler Kleven 000 0 20.00 4113:43
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Leevi Meriläinen 21318 .857 2.78 -0.22

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Clayton Keller 022 +2 40.14 0022:31
8 Nick Schmaltz 000 +2 60.40 0120:29
67 Lawson Crouse 101 +2 60.54 2217:51
11 Dylan Guenther 000 -1 20.19 1116:50
14 Alexander Kerfoot 000 0 20.05 0315:57
22 Jack McBain 011 +1 40.03 4114:30
27 Barrett Hayton 000 -1 00.00 1113:57
50 Daniil But 101 +1 60.59 0113:32
53 Michael Carcone 000 0 30.19 0011:53
56 Kailer Yamamoto 000 0 00.00 1011:36
10 JJ Peterka 000 -1 20.00 0110:59
13 Brandon Tanev 011 +1 20.07 7310:12
Defense
98 Mikhail Sergachev 011 +1 40.28 0125:20
5 Sean Durzi 000 +1 50.05 2123:12
6 John Marino 101 +2 10.25 0020:14
28 Ian Cole 000 -1 00.00 0117:53
88 Nate Schmidt 011 +2 10.00 1217:36
57 Nick DeSimone 000 -1 00.00 1109:28
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Karel Vejmelka 33132 .970 3.03 +2.03

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
71 Ridly Greig C +2.12 +0.75 +0.43 +0.75 +0.15 +0.06 -0.02 — 17:13
2 Artem Zub D +1.52 +0.70 +0.04 +0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 19:25
28 Claude Giroux R +1.18 0.00 +0.32 +0.80 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 18:59
85 Jake Sanderson D +1.06 +0.55 +0.08 +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 26:12
22 Michael Amadio R +0.96 0.00 +0.06 +0.75 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:57
83 Stephen Halliday C +0.34 0.00 +0.13 +0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:16
57 David Perron L +0.13 0.00 +0.03 +0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:37
19 Drake Batherson R +0.13 0.00 +0.20 -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:13
21 Nick Cousins C +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 7:53
43 Tyler Kleven D -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.11 +0.15 0.00 -0.05 — 13:43
18 Tim Stützle C -0.08 0.00 +0.12 -0.06 -0.15 +0.03 -0.02 — 24:29
1 Leevi Meriläinen G -0.22 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.22 57:34
24 Dylan Cozens C -0.23 0.00 +0.16 -0.42 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 17:49
10 Jordan Spence D -0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.31 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 14:55
72 Thomas Chabot D -0.91 0.00 +0.07 -1.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:18
3 Nick Jensen D -1.09 0.00 0.00 -1.14 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:01
12 Shane Pinto C -1.36 0.00 +0.08 -1.48 0.00 -0.04 +0.08 — 16:24
20 Fabian Zetterlund L -1.47 0.00 +0.01 -1.43 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 11:24
7 Brady Tkachuk L -1.62 0.00 +0.25 -1.79 -0.15 +0.02 +0.05 — 17:38

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
6 John Marino D +2.05 +0.75 +0.16 +1.11 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 20:14
70 Karel Vejmelka G +2.03 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.03 60:00
67 Lawson Crouse L +2.02 +0.75 +0.35 +0.81 0.00 -0.01 +0.12 — 17:51
9 Clayton Keller R +1.99 +1.40 +0.09 +0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:31
19 Daniil But L +1.79 +0.75 +0.38 +0.63 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 13:32
98 Mikhail Sergachev D +1.57 +0.55 +0.18 +0.79 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 25:20
22 Jack McBain C +1.51 +0.70 +0.02 +0.76 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 14:30
88 Nate Schmidt D +1.49 +0.55 0.00 +0.90 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 17:36
13 Brandon Tanev L +1.33 +0.55 +0.05 +0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 10:12
50 Sean Durzi D +0.80 0.00 +0.03 +0.57 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 23:12
8 Nick Schmaltz C +0.79 0.00 +0.26 +0.56 0.00 -0.04 +0.01 — 20:29
15 Alexander Kerfoot C +0.39 0.00 +0.04 +0.30 0.00 -0.05 +0.11 — 15:57
53 Michael Carcone L +0.17 0.00 +0.12 +0.06 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 11:53
56 Kailer Yamamoto R -0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 11:36
27 Barrett Hayton C -0.30 0.00 0.00 -0.34 0.00 +0.03 +0.01 — 13:57
11 Dylan Guenther R -0.49 0.00 +0.13 -0.51 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 16:50
28 Ian Cole D -0.72 0.00 0.00 -0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:53
77 JJ Peterka R -0.81 0.00 0.00 -0.85 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 10:59
57 Nick DeSimone D -0.89 0.00 0.00 -0.94 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:28

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.