hockeystats.io

New York IslandersNYI 1–2 Final/SO Nashville PredatorsNSH

Thursday, January 8, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
New York IslandersNYI 01000 1 31
Nashville PredatorsNSH 01001 2 27

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
12:14 NYI Simon Holmstrom (10) Scott Mayfield (6), Mathew Barzal (25) · wrist xG 0.10 1–0 ▶
19:19 NSH Ryan O'Reilly (13)SH Cole Smith (2) · wrist xG 0.13 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
NSH Ryan O'Reilly vs David Rittich Saved
NYI Mathew Barzal vs Juuse Saros Saved
NSH Filip Forsberg vs David Rittich Goal
NYI Simon Holmstrom vs Juuse Saros Missed
NSH Steven Stamkos vs David Rittich Missed
NYI Emil Heineman vs Juuse Saros Saved

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NYI 49%Deserve to win51% NSH
NYINSH
2.81Expected goals2.89
1Goals (no shootout)1
1.49Expected goals, 5 on 51.99
59Shot attempts71
42Unblocked attempts47
31Shots on goal27

Shot map

NYI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots
Anders Lee: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:06) Simon Holmstrom: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 1:25) Scott Mayfield: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:35) Reid Schaefer: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 1:52) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:40) Nick Perbix: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:44) Anthony Duclair: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:29) Calum Ritchie: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:44) Adam Wilsby: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:25) Roman Josi: wrist, 114 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:49) Calum Ritchie: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:05) Anders Lee: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:34) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:39) Brady Skjei: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:02) Roman Josi: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:26) Michael McCarron: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:08) Michael Bunting: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:40) Roman Josi: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:51) Nick Blankenburg: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 15:37) Cole Smith: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:28) Cole Smith: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:33) Casey Cizikas: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:55) Michael Bunting: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:05) Matthew Schaefer: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 18:24) Ryan Pulock: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:45) Emil Heineman: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:29) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:36) Anders Lee: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 19:42) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:40) Emil Heineman: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 0:51) Adam Pelech: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:36) Maxim Shabanov: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:48) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:30) Tony DeAngelo: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 3:34) Filip Forsberg: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:01) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:09) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:11) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:12) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 5:28) Adam Wilsby: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:37) Brady Skjei: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:42) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:48) Steven Stamkos: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 8:06) Maxim Shabanov: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 10:46) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:06) Cole McWard: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:45) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:58) Adam Pelech: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 12:37) Matthew Wood: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:55) Fedor Svechkov: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:20) Anders Lee: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:40) Steven Stamkos: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:13) Calum Ritchie: wrap-around, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:04) Brady Skjei: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 19:59) Cole Smith: wrist, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:02) Emil Heineman: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 0:22) Cole Smith: wrist, 160 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:19) Emil Heineman: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 3:15) Anders Lee: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:44) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:03) Anders Lee: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:06) Brady Skjei: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:24) Emil Heineman: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:03) Roman Josi: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:28) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 8:23) Nick Blankenburg: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 8:31) Nick Perbix: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:37) Brady Skjei: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:25) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 12:21) Mathew Barzal: bat, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:22) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:25) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:36) Casey Cizikas: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:49) Reid Schaefer: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 14:23) Ryan O'Reilly: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 15:10) Reid Schaefer: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:09) Michael Bunting: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 17:58) Adam Wilsby: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:28) Filip Forsberg: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:32) Emil Heineman: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 0:18) Jonathan Drouin: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 1:27) Erik Haula: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 2:28) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 2:58) Roman Josi: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.19 (OT 3:38) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 3:53) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 4:03) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 4:40) Simon Holmstrom: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 12:14) Ryan O'Reilly: GOAL, wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 19:19)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Mathew Barzal 011 0 60.36 1024:51
51 Emil Heineman 000 -1 80.48 2222:45
92 Jonathan Drouin 000 -1 20.10 2017:50
72 Anders Lee 000 +1 70.42 2016:27
92 Simon Holmstrom 101 +1 60.46 0016:10
49 Maxim Shabanov 000 0 20.16 0015:48
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 000 0 10.00 2315:42
53 Casey Cizikas 000 0 20.07 3213:57
11 Anthony Duclair 000 0 20.01 0113:39
32 Kyle MacLean 000 0 10.00 0009:52
17 Marc Gatcomb 000 0 00.00 5109:03
64 Calum Ritchie 000 -1 40.18 0008:52
Defense
48 Matthew Schaefer 000 -1 40.22 0128:53
77 Tony DeAngelo 000 0 50.26 0022:34
3 Adam Pelech 000 0 40.03 0321:44
6 Ryan Pulock 000 0 20.02 1520:42
24 Scott Mayfield 011 +1 20.04 2217:01
0 Cole McWard 000 +1 10.01 0311:10
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
David Rittich 27126 .963 2.89 +1.89

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 101 0 20.32 0123:52
91 Steven Stamkos 000 -1 100.41 3020:24
9 Filip Forsberg 000 -1 30.09 1018:48
56 Erik Haula 000 0 20.07 0217:18
77 Luke Evangelista 000 0 20.04 0016:35
58 Michael Bunting 000 0 40.16 0016:24
22 Cole Smith 011 +1 60.06 3015:17
47 Michael McCarron 000 0 20.05 6114:18
9 Fedor Svechkov 000 0 40.37 0111:46
49 Reid Schaefer 000 0 30.23 1011:04
71 Matthew Wood 000 0 20.04 1007:26
17 Tyson Jost 000 0 30.00 1007:22
Defense
59 Roman Josi 000 +1 80.26 0323:11
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 0 40.43 0121:55
76 Brady Skjei 000 -1 80.25 1221:00
41 Nicolas Hague 000 +1 20.00 1119:51
2 Adam Wilsby 000 -1 30.07 0119:22
48 Nick Perbix 000 0 30.03 1319:07
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 31130 .968 2.81 +1.81

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
33 David Rittich G +1.89 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.89 65:00
13 Mathew Barzal C +1.26 +0.55 +0.24 +0.61 0.00 -0.06 -0.08 — 24:51
10 Simon Holmstrom R +1.02 +0.75 +0.30 +0.15 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:10
24 Scott Mayfield D +0.78 +0.70 +0.03 -0.20 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 17:01
3 Adam Pelech D +0.63 0.00 +0.02 +0.33 +0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 21:44
27 Anders Lee L +0.53 0.00 +0.27 +0.30 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 16:27
51 Emil Heineman L +0.37 0.00 +0.31 -0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:45
77 Tony DeAngelo D +0.21 0.00 +0.17 +0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 22:34
49 Max Shabanov R +0.18 0.00 +0.10 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:48
53 Casey Cizikas C +0.03 0.00 +0.04 -0.11 0.00 +0.04 +0.06 — 13:57
4 Cole McWard D +0.03 0.00 +0.01 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 11:10
64 Calum Ritchie C -0.05 0.00 +0.12 -0.13 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 8:52
11 Anthony Duclair L -0.19 0.00 +0.01 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:39
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.40 0.00 +0.04 +0.15 — 15:42
16 Marc Gatcomb C -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 9:03
48 Matthew Schaefer D -0.31 0.00 +0.14 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 28:53
32 Kyle MacLean C -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.28 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 9:52
29 Jonathan Drouin L -0.44 0.00 +0.06 -0.48 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 17:50
6 Ryan Pulock D -0.52 0.00 +0.01 -0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.23 — 20:42

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
74 Juuse Saros G +1.81 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.81 65:00
40 Fedor Svechkov C +1.43 0.00 +0.24 +1.10 0.00 +0.04 +0.05 — 11:46
36 Cole Smith R +1.21 +0.70 +0.04 +0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:17
37 Nick Blankenburg D +1.11 0.00 +0.28 +0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 21:55
41 Nicolas Hague D +0.81 0.00 0.00 +0.78 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:51
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +0.78 +0.75 +0.21 -0.31 0.00 +0.08 +0.05 — 23:52
77 Luke Evangelista R +0.63 0.00 +0.03 +0.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:35
58 Michael Bunting L +0.54 0.00 +0.10 +0.42 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 16:24
59 Roman Josi D +0.48 0.00 +0.17 +0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 23:11
48 Nick Perbix D +0.32 0.00 +0.02 +0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 19:07
49 Reid Schaefer L +0.14 0.00 +0.15 -0.19 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 11:04
71 Matthew Wood R +0.13 0.00 +0.03 +0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 7:26
56 Erik Haula L -0.01 0.00 +0.04 -0.07 0.00 -0.08 +0.10 — 17:18
17 Tyson Jost C -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.12 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 7:22
91 Steven Stamkos C -0.26 0.00 +0.27 -0.46 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 — 20:24
9 Filip Forsberg L -0.26 0.00 +0.06 -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:48
76 Brady Skjei D -0.29 0.00 +0.16 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 21:00
47 Michael McCarron C -0.39 0.00 +0.03 -0.32 -0.15 -0.01 +0.05 — 14:18
83 Adam Wilsby D -0.47 0.00 +0.04 -0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:22

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.