hockeystats.io

Ottawa SenatorsOTT 2–8 Final Colorado AvalancheCOL

Thursday, January 8, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 011 2 31
Colorado AvalancheCOL 260 8 34

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
10:11 COL Josh Manson (3) Ross Colton (12), Brock Nelson (16) · wrist xG 0.03 0–1 ▶
17:14 COL Nathan MacKinnon (36) Martin Necas (35), Sam Malinski (20) · wrist xG 0.12 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
2:35 COL Cale Makar (13) Nathan MacKinnon (40), Josh Manson (14) · wrist xG 0.03 0–3 ▶
5:08 OTT Shane Pinto (13) Claude Giroux (21), Jake Sanderson (24) · wrist xG 0.04 1–3 ▶
11:46 COL Martin Necas (20)PP Nathan MacKinnon (41), Cale Makar (37) · slap xG 0.10 1–4 ▶
12:03 COL Brent Burns (6) Josh Manson (15), Ross Colton (13) · wrist xG 0.01 1–5 ▶
14:23 COL Brock Nelson (20)PP Nathan MacKinnon (42), Cale Makar (38) · slap xG 0.14 1–6 ▶
16:48 COL Josh Manson (4) Jack Drury (7), Zakhar Bardakov (6) · slap xG 0.05 1–7 ▶
18:04 COL Brock Nelson (21) Ilya Solovyov (2), Ross Colton (14) · slap xG 0.11 1–8 ▶
3rd Period
7:03 OTT Brady Tkachuk (8)SH Tyler Kleven (6) · snap xG 0.29 2–8 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

OTT 38%Deserve to win62% COL
OTTCOL
2.24Expected goals2.88
2Goals (no shootout)8
1.68Expected goals, 5 on 51.50
66Shot attempts63
42Unblocked attempts47
31Shots on goal34

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
20:00 OTT Goalie change Goalie change · Meriläinen in for Sogaard
The start of the 2nd; Sogaard had allowed 5 goals on 16 shots (1.27 xG)
2nd Period
2:35 OTT Goalie Goalie · Meriläinen −2.3 goals saved
3 goals on 0.73 xG, 12 shots on goal
2:35 OTT Goalie change Goalie change · Sogaard in for Meriläinen
2:35 of the 2nd; Meriläinen had allowed 3 goals on 12 shots (0.73 xG)
14:23 OTT Goalie Goalie · Sogaard −2.2 goals saved
3 goals on 0.79 xG, 11 shots on goal
16:00 COL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced OTT 1.03–0.03
In xG over 10 minutes, 6:00 to 16:00 of the 2nd; goals 3–0

Shot map

OTT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots
Sam Malinski: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:49) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:07) Michael Amadio: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:08) Dylan Cozens: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:15) Ivan Ivan: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:12) Brent Burns: slap, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:17) Brent Burns: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:31) Brady Tkachuk: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 3:42) Jack Drury: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 4:47) Sam Malinski: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:13) Artturi Lehkonen: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:15) Martin Necas: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:16) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:18) Martin Necas: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:01) Ross Colton: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:17) Gavin Brindley: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:51) Brent Burns: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:01) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:27) Jordan Spence: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:49) Tyler Kleven: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:56) Jordan Spence: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:04) Claude Giroux: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 12:06) Jake Sanderson: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:16) Ross Colton: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 15:22) Ridly Greig: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:55) Ridly Greig: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:56) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:30) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:33) Jack Drury: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:47) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:12) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:19) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:21) Drake Batherson: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 5:43) Drake Batherson: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:46) Dylan Cozens: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 5:59) Ross Colton: wrist, 156 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 6:01) Artturi Lehkonen: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:17) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:50) Parker Kelly: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 7:38) Ross Colton: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:47) Valeri Nichushkin: tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:58) Ross Colton: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:05) Valeri Nichushkin: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:16) Shane Pinto: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:00) Jordan Spence: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:34) Zakhar Bardakov: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:02) Parker Kelly: tip-in, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:23) Artturi Lehkonen: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 14:42) Brent Burns: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:27) David Perron: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:04) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 17:22) Nikolas Matinpalo: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:45) David Perron: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:04) Jordan Spence: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:31) Brady Tkachuk: backhand, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:33) Thomas Chabot: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:01) Shane Pinto: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:18) Jordan Spence: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:08) Jordan Spence: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:18) Lars Eller: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 5:50) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:59) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:52) Fabian Zetterlund: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 9:02) Brent Burns: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:30) Brent Burns: wrist, 174 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:26) Josh Manson: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:56) Ross Colton: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 12:06) Ross Colton: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 12:46) Josh Manson: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:51) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:12) Artturi Lehkonen: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 13:48) Gavin Brindley: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:23) Josh Manson: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:42) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 15:31) Dylan Cozens: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 16:18) Drake Batherson: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:21) Shane Pinto: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 18:27) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:34) Drake Batherson: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:54) Josh Manson: GOAL, wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:11) Nathan MacKinnon: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 17:14) Cale Makar: GOAL, wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:35) Shane Pinto: GOAL, wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:08) Martin Necas: GOAL, slap, 25 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 11:46) Brent Burns: GOAL, wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:03) Brock Nelson: GOAL, slap, 26 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:23) Josh Manson: GOAL, slap, 57 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:48) Brock Nelson: GOAL, slap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 18:04) Brady Tkachuk: GOAL, snap, 10 ft, xG 0.29 (P3 7:03)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
12 Shane Pinto 101 -1 50.31 0018:10
28 Claude Giroux 011 -1 40.07 1017:26
18 Tim Stützle 000 -2 00.00 1017:07
71 Ridly Greig 000 0 20.17 2016:30
19 Drake Batherson 000 -1 40.26 0015:15
8 Brady Tkachuk 101 -1 80.48 5015:04
24 Dylan Cozens 000 -1 90.41 4014:02
22 Michael Amadio 000 -1 20.01 1113:54
16 David Perron 000 -1 40.04 3113:41
20 Fabian Zetterlund 000 -1 20.18 5012:46
20 Lars Eller 000 -1 20.12 1111:10
21 Nick Cousins 000 -2 20.00 2110:44
Defense
85 Jake Sanderson 011 -2 30.02 3220:29
72 Thomas Chabot 000 -3 60.06 2119:47
33 Nikolas Matinpalo 000 +1 10.02 2119:40
43 Tyler Kleven 011 +1 30.05 5319:01
2 Artem Zub 000 -3 10.00 0218:30
10 Jordan Spence 000 -2 80.04 1117:20
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Leevi Meriläinen 18315 .833 1.61 -1.39
Mads Sogaard 16511 .688 1.27 -3.73

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 Martin Necas 112 +2 40.15 1018:33
29 Nathan MacKinnon 134 0 60.41 0117:14
62 Artturi Lehkonen 000 -1 40.47 0017:14
17 Parker Kelly 000 0 20.27 1217:06
18 Jack Drury 011 +1 30.12 0216:16
11 Brock Nelson 213 +1 20.25 0016:09
79 Ross Colton 033 +3 70.53 2015:14
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 +2 50.14 0115:03
95 Victor Olofsson 000 0 10.00 0014:02
54 Gavin Brindley 000 0 20.08 0113:53
93 Zakhar Bardakov 011 +1 10.01 1111:43
49 Ivan Ivan 000 +1 10.04 0009:37
Defense
84 Brent Burns 101 +2 90.16 1320:23
8 Cale Makar 123 0 50.03 1119:50
42 Josh Manson 224 +5 50.18 3419:25
49 Samuel Girard 000 +1 20.00 0318:09
7 Ilya Solovyov 011 +2 00.00 3117:50
70 Sam Malinski 011 0 40.05 0016:19
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 31229 .935 2.24 +0.24

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
28 Claude Giroux R +0.73 +0.70 +0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 17:26
12 Shane Pinto C +0.73 +0.75 +0.20 +0.12 -0.30 0.00 -0.04 — 18:10
43 Tyler Kleven D +0.70 +0.70 +0.03 -0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.19 — 19:01
10 Jordan Spence D +0.68 0.00 +0.03 +0.60 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:20
7 Brady Tkachuk L +0.67 +0.75 +0.31 -0.38 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 15:04
24 Dylan Cozens C +0.60 0.00 +0.26 +0.37 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 14:02
19 Drake Batherson R +0.56 0.00 +0.17 +0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:15
72 Thomas Chabot D +0.30 0.00 +0.04 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:47
57 David Perron L +0.26 0.00 +0.03 +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:41
85 Jake Sanderson D +0.25 +0.55 +0.01 -0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 20:29
20 Fabian Zetterlund L +0.04 0.00 +0.12 -0.22 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:46
89 Lars Eller C -0.14 0.00 +0.08 -0.29 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 11:10
71 Ridly Greig C -0.28 0.00 +0.11 -0.25 -0.15 -0.01 +0.02 — 16:30
22 Michael Amadio R -0.42 0.00 +0.01 -0.33 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 13:54
18 Tim Stützle C -0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.61 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 17:07
2 Artem Zub D -0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 18:30
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D -0.58 0.00 +0.01 -0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 19:40
21 Nick Cousins C -0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.61 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 10:44
1 Leevi Meriläinen G -1.39 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.39 42:35
40 Mads Sogaard G -3.73 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -3.73 17:25

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
42 Josh Manson D +3.28 +2.75 +0.11 +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.24 — 19:25
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +3.24 +2.85 +0.26 +0.06 0.00 +0.03 +0.03 — 17:14
11 Brock Nelson C +2.61 +2.05 +0.16 +0.18 +0.15 +0.07 0.00 — 16:09
20 Ross Colton C +2.34 +1.80 +0.34 +0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:14
88 Martin Necas C +2.11 +1.45 +0.10 +0.43 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:33
8 Cale Makar D +1.92 +1.85 +0.02 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:50
18 Jack Drury C +1.35 +0.70 +0.08 +0.32 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 16:16
84 Brent Burns D +1.22 +0.75 +0.10 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 20:23
28 Ilya Solovyov D +1.00 +0.70 0.00 +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:49
49 Samuel Girard D +1.00 0.00 0.00 +1.00 -0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 18:09
93 Zakhar Bardakov C +0.59 +0.55 0.00 -0.06 0.00 +0.01 +0.08 — 11:43
41 Scott Wedgewood G +0.39 0.00 — — +0.15 — — +0.24 60:00
17 Parker Kelly C +0.38 0.00 +0.17 +0.11 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 17:06
95 Victor Olofsson L +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:03
70 Sam Malinski D +0.19 +0.55 +0.03 -0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:19
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +0.18 0.00 +0.31 -0.11 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 17:14
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +0.11 0.00 +0.09 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:03
54 Gavin Brindley C +0.07 0.00 +0.05 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 13:53
82 Ivan Ivan C -0.02 0.00 +0.03 -0.01 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 9:37

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.