| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 25 | |
| 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 26 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:24 | Boone Jenner (7) Zach Werenski (30), Sean Monahan (15) · tip-in xG 0.08 | 1–0 ▶ | |
| 10:41 | Kent Johnson (4) Sean Monahan (16), Boone Jenner (14) · snap xG 0.18 | 2–0 ▶ | |
| 12:20 | Reilly Smith (7) Ben Hutton (7), Mitch Marner (34) · tip-in xG 0.10 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 5:19 | Reilly Smith (8) Mitch Marner (35), Mark Stone (22) · wrist xG 0.10 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 13:07 | Jack Eichel (13) Ivan Barbashev (19), Mark Stone (23) · wrist xG 0.06 | 2–3 ▶ | |
| 18:44 | Mark Stone (14)PP Tomas Hertl (17), Jack Eichel (32) · snap xG 0.20 | 2–4 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 14:28 | Kirill Marchenko (16) Ivan Provorov (12), Adam Fantilli (15) · wrist xG 0.15 | 3–4 ▶ | |
| 16:14 | Brett Howden (9) Keegan Kolesar (7), Tomas Hertl (18) · wrist xG 0.16 | 3–5 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| CBJ | VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.17 | Expected goals | 3.04 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 5 |
| 2.67 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.85 |
| 64 | Shot attempts | 51 |
| 44 | Unblocked attempts | 38 |
| 25 | Shots on goal | 26 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:24 | VGK | Goalie change | Goalie change · Schmid in for Hart
8:24 of the 1st; Hart had allowed 1 goal on 1 shots (0.55 xG) |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 18:44 | CBJ | Goalie | Goalie · Greaves −2.5 goals saved
4 goals on 1.53 xG, 15 shots on goal |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 4:17 | VGK | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · VGK takes the lead, 62–38%
CBJ had led since 8:18 of the 1st, by as much as 72% |
| 7:30 | VGK | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced CBJ 1.32–0.17
In xG over 10 minutes, 17:50 of the 2nd to 7:50 of the 3rd; goals 1–0 |
| 16:30 | CBJ | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Greaves, down 5–3
With 3:30 left |
| 19:05 | CBJ | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Greaves, down 5–3
With 0:55 left |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 86 | Kirill Marchenko | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 8 | 0.31 | 0 | 2 | 19:35 |
| 19 | Adam Fantilli | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.03 | 4 | 0 | 18:12 |
| 22 | Boone Jenner | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0.44 | 3 | 0 | 17:57 |
| 3 | Charlie Coyle | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.10 | 2 | 0 | 17:17 |
| 23 | Sean Monahan | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0 | 17:11 |
| 91 | Kent Johnson | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 8 | 0.34 | 1 | 2 | 16:41 |
| 10 | Dmitri Voronkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | 2 | 1 | 16:29 |
| 4 | Cole Sillinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 0 | 13:57 |
| 24 | Mathieu Olivier | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.09 | 5 | 0 | 13:40 |
| 50 | Brendan Gaunce | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.09 | 2 | 0 | 11:06 |
| 21 | Zachary Aston-Reese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 6 | 1 | 10:26 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 8 | Zach Werenski | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.16 | 0 | 1 | 28:00 |
| 9 | Ivan Provorov | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.23 | 0 | 2 | 24:13 |
| 78 | Damon Severson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.98 | 0 | 1 | 23:21 |
| 5 | Denton Mateychuk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 19:14 |
| 15 | Dante Fabbro | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 12:58 |
| 6 | Egor Zamula | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 11:12 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves | 26 | 5 | 21 | .808 | 3.04 | -1.96 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 9 | Jack Eichel | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 | 0.18 | 0 | 1 | 22:40 |
| 61 | Mark Stone | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 7 | 0.65 | 0 | 3 | 22:32 |
| 49 | Ivan Barbashev | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 |
| 93 | Mitch Marner | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 |
| 48 | Tomas Hertl | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 0.65 | 2 | 1 | 16:09 |
| 19 | Reilly Smith | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.27 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 |
| 20 | Brandon Saad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 13:40 |
| 55 | Keegan Kolesar | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.05 | 1 | 0 | 12:02 |
| 16 | Pavel Dorofeyev | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 0 | 11:35 |
| 21 | Brett Howden | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.50 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 |
| 15 | Colton Sissons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 2 | 2 | 10:34 |
| 42 | Braeden Bowman | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.19 | 2 | 2 | 09:24 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 15 | Noah Hanifin | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 24:54 |
| 28 | Zach Whitecloud | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 0.02 | 4 | 3 | 22:52 |
| 6 | Kaedan Korczak | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.02 | 2 | 1 | 18:22 |
| 5 | Jeremy Lauzon | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.07 | 3 | 4 | 17:16 |
| 17 | Ben Hutton | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 |
| 52 | Dylan Coghlan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 3 | 15:58 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | 0.55 | -0.45 |
| Akira Schmid | 24 | 2 | 22 | .917 | 2.61 | +0.61 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sean Monahan C | +2.12 | +1.25 | +0.10 | +0.71 | 0.00 | +0.09 | -0.02 | — | 17:11 |
| 38 Boone Jenner C | +2.03 | +1.30 | +0.29 | +0.45 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 17:57 |
| 86 Kirill Marchenko R | +1.92 | +0.75 | +0.20 | +0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 19:35 |
| 19 Adam Fantilli C | +1.59 | +0.55 | +0.02 | +0.90 | +0.15 | +0.03 | -0.06 | — | 18:12 |
| 91 Kent Johnson C | +1.52 | +0.75 | +0.22 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 16:41 |
| 8 Zach Werenski D | +1.42 | +0.70 | +0.11 | +0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 28:00 |
| 78 Damon Severson D | +1.25 | 0.00 | +0.64 | +0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 23:21 |
| 10 Dmitri Voronkov L | +1.09 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 16:29 |
| 5 Denton Mateychuk D | +0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 19:14 |
| 9 Ivan Provorov D | +0.89 | +0.70 | +0.15 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 24:13 |
| 15 Dante Fabbro D | -0.02 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:58 |
| 4 Cole Sillinger C | -0.09 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.21 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.04 | — | 13:57 |
| 3 Charlie Coyle C | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.23 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.02 | — | 17:17 |
| 82 Mikael Pyyhtia L | -0.22 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 9:27 |
| 6 Egor Zamula D | -0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 11:12 |
| 27 Zachary Aston-Reese L | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 10:26 |
| 24 Mathieu Olivier R | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.21 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:40 |
| 16 Brendan Gaunce C | -0.58 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.48 | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 11:06 |
| 73 Jet Greaves G | -1.96 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -1.96 | 56:48 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 Tomas Hertl C | +2.88 | +1.25 | +0.42 | +1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 16:09 |
| 21 Brett Howden C | +1.81 | +0.75 | +0.33 | +0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 11:04 |
| 61 Mark Stone R | +1.41 | +1.85 | +0.42 | -0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 22:32 |
| 55 Keegan Kolesar R | +1.22 | +0.70 | +0.03 | +0.63 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:02 |
| 9 Jack Eichel C | +1.16 | +1.30 | +0.12 | -0.23 | 0.00 | -0.06 | +0.03 | — | 22:40 |
| 19 Reilly Smith R | +0.62 | +1.50 | +0.18 | -0.97 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.06 | — | 14:21 |
| 40 Akira Schmid G | +0.61 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.61 | 51:29 |
| 42 Braeden Bowman R | +0.44 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.07 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 9:24 |
| 93 Mitch Marner R | +0.41 | +1.25 | +0.01 | -0.75 | 0.00 | -0.06 | -0.04 | — | 17:40 |
| 2 Zach Whitecloud D | +0.26 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 22:52 |
| 17 Ben Hutton D | +0.19 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:17 |
| 15 Noah Hanifin D | +0.12 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 24:54 |
| 16 Pavel Dorofeyev R | +0.11 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 11:35 |
| 49 Ivan Barbashev L | -0.16 | +0.70 | +0.13 | -0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 20:47 |
| 5 Jeremy Lauzon D | -0.23 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | — | 17:16 |
| 52 Dylan Coghlan D | -0.34 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 15:58 |
| 79 Carter Hart G | -0.45 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.45 | 8:24 |
| 6 Kaedan Korczak D | -0.45 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 18:22 |
| 10 Colton Sissons C | -0.61 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.72 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.10 | — | 10:34 |
| 20 Brandon Saad L | -0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:40 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.