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Dallas StarsDAL 4–5 Final/OT San Jose SharksSJS

Saturday, January 10, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Dallas StarsDAL 2110 4 20
San Jose SharksSJS 0221 5 31

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
7:33 DAL Justin Hryckowian (7) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.27 1–0 ▶
19:03 DAL Jason Robertson (26) Mikko Rantanen (43), Roope Hintz (21) · wrist xG 0.24 2–0 ▶
2nd Period
4:44 SJS Alexander Wennberg (9)PP Macklin Celebrini (44), Tyler Toffoli (18) · wrist xG 0.14 2–1 ▶
14:49 SJS Jeff Skinner (6)PP Igor Chernyshov (6), Adam Gaudette (7) · wrist xG 0.14 2–2 ▶
19:01 DAL Kyle Capobianco (2) Mavrik Bourque (8), Jason Robertson (28) · wrist xG 0.07 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
7:53 DAL Mikko Rantanen (18) Sam Steel (10), Nils Lundkvist (3) · backhand xG 0.14 4–2 ▶
9:28 SJS Tyler Toffoli (12)PP Macklin Celebrini (45), Dmitry Orlov (21) · backhand xG 0.03 4–3 ▶
15:01 SJS Adam Gaudette (10) Sam Dickinson (4), Collin Graf (12) · tip-in xG 0.10 4–4 ▶
Overtime
1:58 SJS Tyler Toffoli (13)PP William Eklund (18), Macklin Celebrini (46) · slap xG 0.18 4–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DAL 43%Deserve to win57% SJS
DALSJS
2.79Expected goals3.23
4Goals (no shootout)5
1.96Expected goals, 5 on 52.30
42Shot attempts60
31Unblocked attempts45
20Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
18:40 SJS Shortened bench Shortened bench · 3 forwards sat
Reaves, Goodrow and Ostapchuk: no shift after 7:53 of the 3rd

Shot map

DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SJS shoots
Alexander Wennberg: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:08) Roope Hintz: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:15) Thomas Harley: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:19) Roope Hintz: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 0:21) Jason Robertson: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 0:22) Jason Robertson: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 0:22) Jeff Skinner: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 1:29) Adam Erne: wrist, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:19) Igor Chernyshov: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:12) Macklin Celebrini: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:43) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:44) Igor Chernyshov: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 3:50) Mario Ferraro: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:40) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 5:42) Mario Ferraro: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:50) Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:20) Colin Blackwell: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 12:49) Pavol Regenda: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:19) Jason Robertson: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 14:48) Radek Faksa: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:59) Adam Gaudette: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:20) Igor Chernyshov: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 16:34) Mario Ferraro: slap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:43) Pavol Regenda: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:50) Pavol Regenda: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 17:52) Roope Hintz: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:22) Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 19:00) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:38) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:45) Roope Hintz: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:54) Miro Heiskanen: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:15) Dmitry Orlov: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:40) Pavol Regenda: wrist, 87 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:53) Adam Gaudette: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 6:56) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:43) Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:50) Justin Hryckowian: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 10:51) Thomas Harley: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:58) William Eklund: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:41) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:56) Barclay Goodrow: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 16:59) Tyler Toffoli: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:18) William Eklund: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 19:30) Macklin Celebrini: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:31) Oskar Bäck: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 19:59) Wyatt Johnston: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 0:57) Jason Robertson: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:35) Ryan Reaves: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:19) Adam Erne: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:42) Roope Hintz: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:29) Adam Gaudette: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:50) Dmitry Orlov: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:54) Nils Lundkvist: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:40) Nils Lundkvist: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:49) Pavol Regenda: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:03) Vincent Iorio: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:18) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:09) Thomas Harley: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:09) Adam Gaudette: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:08) Alexander Wennberg: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:57) Alexander Wennberg: slap, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:58) Jeff Skinner: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 14:27) Pavol Regenda: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 19:20) Wyatt Johnston: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 19:26) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (OT 1:17) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 1:47) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 1:52) Justin Hryckowian: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.27 (P1 7:33) Jason Robertson: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 19:03) Alexander Wennberg: GOAL, wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 4:44) Jeff Skinner: GOAL, wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:49) Kyle Capobianco: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:01) Mikko Rantanen: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 7:53) Tyler Toffoli: GOAL, backhand, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:28) Adam Gaudette: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 15:01) Tyler Toffoli: GOAL, slap, 32 ft, xG 0.18 (OT 1:58)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
53 Wyatt Johnston 000 +2 50.44 1022:06
96 Mikko Rantanen 112 +2 30.37 2121:35
21 Jason Robertson 112 +2 70.67 1018:24
18 Sam Steel 011 +1 10.00 0117:35
24 Roope Hintz 011 +2 60.30 0016:43
22 Mavrik Bourque 011 +1 00.00 0015:59
95 Matt Duchene 000 0 10.00 0014:54
49 Justin Hryckowian 101 0 20.34 2012:53
10 Oskar Bäck 000 0 20.12 0211:04
12 Radek Faksa 000 0 10.01 2111:01
15 Colin Blackwell 000 0 10.24 0008:08
73 Adam Erne 000 0 20.03 1108:01
Defense
4 Miro Heiskanen 000 +1 20.01 1429:54
23 Esa Lindell 000 +1 20.00 0226:24
55 Thomas Harley 000 0 40.09 0022:53
46 Ilya Lyubushkin 000 +1 00.00 1116:04
5 Nils Lundkvist 011 +2 20.07 1014:16
20 Kyle Capobianco 101 +1 10.07 0110:38
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Casey DeSmith 31526 .839 3.23 -1.77

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Macklin Celebrini 033 0 120.32 1127:39
27 William Eklund 011 0 30.31 1024:58
21 Alexander Wennberg 101 -1 50.27 0123:59
92 Igor Chernyshov 011 0 30.31 0019:34
73 Tyler Toffoli 213 -1 70.41 2019:28
84 Pavol Regenda 000 -1 60.43 3017:04
51 Collin Graf 011 0 00.00 6015:19
53 Jeff Skinner 101 0 30.33 1011:30
81 Adam Gaudette 112 0 60.48 0111:01
23 Barclay Goodrow 000 -2 20.20 0007:39
63 Zack Ostapchuk 000 -2 00.00 0006:43
75 Ryan Reaves 000 -2 10.07 1004:35
Defense
27 Timothy Liljegren 000 0 20.00 0122:38
9 Dmitry Orlov 011 0 30.06 2122:07
38 Mario Ferraro 000 -2 40.04 0120:24
4 Nick Leddy 000 -2 10.00 0319:11
6 Sam Dickinson 011 -1 00.00 4016:40
6 Vincent Iorio 000 -1 20.01 0212:26
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Nedeljkovic 20416 .800 2.79 -1.21

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
21 Jason Robertson L +2.29 +1.30 +0.44 +0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:24
96 Mikko Rantanen R +1.92 +1.45 +0.24 +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:35
5 Nils Lundkvist D +1.40 +0.55 +0.05 +0.83 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:16
20 Kyle Capobianco D +1.22 +0.75 +0.05 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:38
24 Roope Hintz C +1.18 +0.55 +0.20 +0.38 0.00 +0.05 0.00 — 16:43
22 Mavrik Bourque C +1.08 +0.70 0.00 +0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:59
18 Sam Steel C +0.95 +0.70 0.00 +0.05 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 17:35
49 Justin Hryckowian C +0.62 +0.75 +0.22 -0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 12:53
10 Oskar Bäck C +0.15 0.00 +0.08 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 11:04
53 Wyatt Johnston C +0.06 0.00 +0.29 -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:06
95 Matt Duchene C -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.10 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:54
15 Colin Blackwell C -0.14 0.00 +0.16 +0.03 -0.30 -0.03 0.00 — 8:08
4 Miro Heiskanen D -0.15 0.00 +0.01 -0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 29:54
12 Radek Faksa C -0.18 0.00 +0.01 -0.22 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 11:01
55 Thomas Harley D -0.21 0.00 +0.06 -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:53
23 Esa Lindell D -0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.35 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 26:24
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D -0.52 0.00 0.00 -0.36 -0.15 0.00 -0.01 — 16:04
73 Adam Erne L -0.98 0.00 +0.02 -0.88 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 8:01
1 Casey DeSmith G -1.77 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.77 61:53

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
71 Macklin Celebrini C +2.92 +1.95 +0.21 +0.38 +0.30 +0.07 +0.01 — 27:39
73 Tyler Toffoli C +2.45 +2.05 +0.27 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 19:28
81 Adam Gaudette R +1.94 +1.30 +0.31 +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:01
21 Alexander Wennberg C +1.41 +0.75 +0.18 +0.18 +0.30 -0.06 +0.07 — 23:59
92 Igor Chernyshov L +1.30 +0.70 +0.20 +0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:34
53 Jeff Skinner L +1.20 +0.75 +0.22 +0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 11:30
72 William Eklund L +1.04 +0.70 +0.20 +0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 24:58
9 Dmitry Orlov D +0.96 +0.55 +0.04 +0.47 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 22:07
84 Pavol Regenda L +0.82 0.00 +0.28 +0.41 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 17:04
37 Timothy Liljegren D +0.60 0.00 0.00 +0.74 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 22:38
51 Collin Graf R +0.58 +0.55 0.00 +0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:19
6 Sam Dickinson D +0.40 +0.70 0.00 -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:40
22 Vincent Iorio D -0.07 0.00 +0.01 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 12:26
4 Nick Leddy D -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 19:11
23 Barclay Goodrow C -0.29 0.00 +0.13 -0.57 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 7:39
75 Ryan Reaves R -0.53 0.00 +0.05 -0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 4:35
38 Mario Ferraro D -0.55 0.00 +0.02 -0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:24
63 Zack Ostapchuk C -0.77 0.00 0.00 -0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 6:43
33 Alex Nedeljkovic G -1.21 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.21 61:58

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.