Anaheim DucksANA 3–5 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Saturday, January 10, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Anaheim DucksANA	0	0	3	3	36
Buffalo SabresBUF	1	1	3	5	32

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:03	BUF	Jack Quinn (8) Ryan McLeod (17), Zach Benson (14) · wrist xG 0.11	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
7:22	BUF	Tage Thompson (22) Peyton Krebs (12), Josh Doan (16) · tip-in xG 0.16	0–2 ▶
3rd Period
7:09	BUF	Bowen Byram (10) Tage Thompson (19), Peyton Krebs (13) · snap xG 0.19	0–3 ▶
15:16	ANA	Olen Zellweger (6) Jackson LaCombe (22), Mikael Granlund (10) · backhand xG 0.11	1–3 ▶
16:00	BUF	Jack Quinn (9) Zach Benson (15), Owen Power (11) · snap xG 0.07	1–4 ▶
18:02	ANA	Leo Carlsson (18) Ian Moore (5) · wrist xG 0.02	2–4 ▶
19:12	ANA	Mason McTavish (11) Leo Carlsson (26), Beckett Sennecke (20) · wrist xG 0.11	3–4 ▶
19:49	BUF	Josh Norris (6)EN Alex Tuch (22) · backhand xG 0.66	3–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

ANA 38%Deserve to win62% BUF

ANA		BUF
2.45	Expected goals	3.92
3	Goals (no shootout)	5
1.89	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.17
76	Shot attempts	54
52	Unblocked attempts	43
36	Shots on goal	32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
12:10	BUF	Goalie	Goalie · Luukkonen +2.0 goals saved 0 goals on 2.05 xG, 28 shots on goal
18:17	ANA	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Dostal, down 4–2 With 1:43 left

Shot map

ANA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Anaheim Ducks

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
91	Leo Carlsson	1	1	2	0	8	0.48	1	0	20:03
64	Mikael Granlund	0	1	1	0	8	0.29	0	0	19:34
45	Beckett Sennecke	0	1	1	0	3	0.07	2	0	19:25
17	Alex Killorn	0	0	0	0	5	0.43	4	0	18:54
83	Mason McTavish	1	0	1	-2	5	0.31	2	0	16:57
22	Chris Kreider	0	0	0	0	3	0.00	2	0	15:29
61	Cutter Gauthier	0	0	0	-1	9	0.11	1	0	15:03
25	Ryan Poehling	0	0	0	0	6	0.10	0	0	13:55
22	Ryan Strome	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	2	0	12:31
13	Nikita Nesterenko	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	1	0	10:47
49	Ross Johnston	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	5	0	09:33
Defense
2	Jackson LaCombe	0	1	1	+2	2	0.01	0	3	21:05
98	Pavel Mintyukov	0	0	0	-3	4	0.07	1	0	20:58
8	Olen Zellweger	1	0	1	0	8	0.28	0	2	19:51
6	Radko Gudas	0	0	0	-1	7	0.16	4	0	19:29
14	Drew Helleson	0	0	0	-3	2	0.04	2	1	18:58
3	Ian Moore	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	0	0	14:24

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Lukas Dostal	31	4	27	.871	3.15	-0.85

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
72	Tage Thompson	1	1	2	0	4	0.37	2	0	19:49
89	Alex Tuch	0	1	1	-1	4	0.18	1	2	19:10
71	Ryan McLeod	0	1	1	+2	2	0.00	0	0	17:18
17	Jason Zucker	0	0	0	-1	3	0.32	1	0	16:39
19	Peyton Krebs	0	2	2	+1	2	0.13	0	0	15:48
9	Josh Norris	1	0	1	0	6	1.04	0	3	15:12
91	Josh Doan	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	0	1	15:09
6	Zach Benson	0	2	2	0	5	0.87	0	0	13:51
22	Jack Quinn	2	0	2	+2	6	0.49	0	0	13:41
12	Jordan Greenway	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	2	3	11:04
86	Noah Ostlund	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	1	1	10:32
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	2	1	10:00
Defense
24	Bowen Byram	1	0	1	+3	3	0.33	0	2	26:01
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	0	0	-1	5	0.07	0	5	25:37
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	1	0	23:54
25	Owen Power	0	1	1	+1	6	0.03	0	1	22:03
78	Jacob Bryson	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	2	10:07
73	Zach Metsa	0	0	0	+2	2	0.02	0	0	10:05

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	36	3	33	.917	2.45	-0.55

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Anaheim Ducks

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
91 Leo Carlsson C	+2.10	+1.45	+0.31	+0.38	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	20:03
51 Olen Zellweger D	+1.54	+0.75	+0.18	+0.68	-0.15	0.00	+0.08	—	19:51
64 Mikael Granlund C	+1.43	+0.55	+0.19	+0.74	0.00	-0.05	0.00	—	19:34
2 Jackson LaCombe D	+1.28	+0.70	+0.01	+0.27	+0.15	0.00	+0.15	—	21:05
23 Mason McTavish C	+0.63	+0.75	+0.20	-0.33	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	16:57
17 Alex Killorn L	+0.55	0.00	+0.28	+0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:54
74 Ian Moore D	+0.50	+0.70	0.00	-0.03	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	14:24
45 Beckett Sennecke R	+0.45	+0.55	+0.04	-0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	19:25
7 Radko Gudas D	+0.37	0.00	+0.11	+0.45	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	19:29
61 Cutter Gauthier L	+0.09	0.00	+0.07	0.00	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	15:03
20 Chris Kreider L	-0.22	0.00	0.00	-0.23	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	15:29
25 Ryan Poehling C	-0.25	0.00	+0.07	-0.29	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	13:55
44 Ross Johnston L	-0.25	0.00	0.00	-0.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:33
16 Ryan Strome C	-0.37	0.00	+0.02	-0.57	+0.15	+0.05	-0.02	—	12:31
42 Tim Washe C	-0.62	0.00	+0.04	-0.71	0.00	+0.02	+0.03	—	10:18
13 Nikita Nesterenko C	-0.68	0.00	+0.01	-0.70	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	10:47
1 Lukas Dostal G	-0.85	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.85	58:46
98 Pavel Mintyukov D	-1.28	0.00	+0.05	-1.29	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	20:58
14 Drew Helleson D	-1.32	0.00	+0.03	-1.34	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	18:58

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
22 Jack Quinn R	+2.38	+1.50	+0.32	+0.63	0.00	0.00	-0.08	—	13:41
72 Tage Thompson C	+2.23	+1.45	+0.24	+0.22	+0.30	+0.02	0.00	—	19:49
6 Zach Benson L	+2.10	+1.25	+0.57	+0.13	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	13:51
4 Bowen Byram D	+1.94	+0.75	+0.21	+0.88	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	25:56
19 Peyton Krebs C	+1.70	+1.25	+0.09	+0.42	0.00	-0.02	-0.04	—	15:48
71 Ryan McLeod C	+1.46	+0.70	0.00	+0.75	0.00	+0.03	-0.02	—	17:18
9 Josh Norris C	+1.44	+0.75	+0.67	-0.13	0.00	-0.01	+0.15	—	15:12
25 Owen Power D	+1.37	+0.55	+0.02	+0.77	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	22:03
89 Alex Tuch R	+0.97	+0.70	+0.11	+0.10	0.00	-0.02	+0.08	—	19:10
73 Zach Metsa D	+0.97	0.00	+0.01	+0.99	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	10:05
91 Josh Doan R	+0.91	+0.55	0.00	+0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	15:09
78 Jacob Bryson D	+0.47	0.00	+0.01	+0.36	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	10:07
12 Jordan Greenway L	+0.24	0.00	0.00	+0.12	0.00	-0.01	+0.13	—	11:04
17 Jason Zucker L	+0.09	0.00	+0.20	-0.07	0.00	+0.01	-0.06	—	16:39
29 Beck Malenstyn L	-0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	10:00
86 Noah Ostlund C	-0.51	0.00	+0.01	-0.52	0.00	-0.05	+0.05	—	10:32
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G	-0.55	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.55	60:00
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	-0.84	0.00	+0.05	-0.99	-0.15	0.00	+0.25	—	25:37
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	-0.94	0.00	+0.02	-0.86	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	23:59

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.