Florida PanthersFLA 3–2 Final Ottawa SenatorsOTT

Saturday, January 10, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Florida PanthersFLA	1	1	1	3	21
Ottawa SenatorsOTT	1	0	1	2	19

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:03	OTT	Fabian Zetterlund (11) Shane Pinto (10), Claude Giroux (22) · wrist xG 0.06	0–1 ▶
11:34	FLA	Evan Rodrigues (9)PP Aaron Ekblad (14) · wrist xG 0.07	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
13:13	FLA	Carter Verhaeghe (13)PP Gustav Forsling (14), Anton Lundell (19) · wrist xG 0.07	2–1 ▶
3rd Period
3:48	FLA	Gustav Forsling (2) Aaron Ekblad (15), Carter Verhaeghe (18) · slap xG 0.04	3–1 ▶
18:18	OTT	Drake Batherson (17) Claude Giroux (23), Jake Sanderson (25) · tip-in xG 0.08	3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 24%Deserve to win76% OTT

FLA		OTT
1.82	Expected goals	3.34
3	Goals (no shootout)	2
1.09	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.59
47	Shot attempts	51
32	Unblocked attempts	44
21	Shots on goal	19

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
17:04	FLA	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · FLA takes the lead, 62–38% OTT had led since 5:10 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
2nd Period
8:03	OTT	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · OTT takes the lead, 67–33% FLA had led since 17:04 of the 1st, by as much as 63%
9:10	OTT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced FLA 1.37–0.33 In xG over 10 minutes, 19:10 of the 1st to 9:10 of the 2nd; neither team scored
3rd Period
17:36	OTT	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Meriläinen, down 3–1 With 2:24 left; OTT scored at 18:18 of the 3rd (3–2)
18:00	FLA	Goalie	Goalie · Bobrovsky +2.2 goals saved 1 goal on 3.18 xG, 18 shots on goal

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ OTT shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
13	Sam Reinhart	0	0	0	-1	8	0.33	2	0	21:59
15	Anton Lundell	0	1	1	0	4	0.16	0	0	20:55
9	Sam Bennett	0	0	0	0	5	0.25	2	1	20:08
17	Evan Rodrigues	1	0	1	-2	2	0.10	1	0	18:00
27	Eetu Luostarinen	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	0	0	17:04
23	Carter Verhaeghe	1	1	2	-1	5	0.13	0	0	16:50
18	A.J. Greer	0	0	0	+1	2	0.00	0	1	12:22
11	Mackie Samoskevich	0	0	0	0	6	0.34	3	0	12:21
95	Sandis Vilmanis	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	0	11:48
70	Jesper Boqvist	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	08:13
71	Luke Kunin	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	07:38
23	Jack Studnicka	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	1	0	06:37
Defense
77	Niko Mikkola	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	2	1	24:27
42	Gustav Forsling	1	1	2	0	2	0.10	2	0	22:55
5	Aaron Ekblad	0	2	2	0	2	0.13	1	1	22:27
26	Uvis Balinskis	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	1	1	21:55
2	Jeff Petry	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	15:10
73	Donovan Sebrango	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	3	0	09:11

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky	19	2	17	.895	3.34	+1.34

Ottawa Senators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
18	Tim Stützle	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	0	24:01
28	Claude Giroux	0	2	2	+2	2	0.14	1	0	19:15
12	Shane Pinto	0	1	1	+2	2	0.30	3	2	19:04
8	Brady Tkachuk	0	0	0	0	4	0.70	2	0	18:59
19	Drake Batherson	1	0	1	0	8	0.53	0	0	18:25
24	Dylan Cozens	0	0	0	0	2	0.16	2	0	16:34
20	Fabian Zetterlund	1	0	1	+1	6	0.52	0	1	15:09
22	Michael Amadio	0	0	0	0	3	0.38	0	0	13:36
71	Ridly Greig	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	3	1	12:14
16	David Perron	0	0	0	+1	1	0.05	1	0	10:24
21	Nick Cousins	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	09:53
20	Lars Eller	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	07:00
Defense
85	Jake Sanderson	0	1	1	0	8	0.28	0	3	28:07
72	Thomas Chabot	0	0	0	+1	4	0.03	3	4	21:31
10	Jordan Spence	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	1	0	18:05
4	Nick Jensen	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	0	0	15:14
43	Tyler Kleven	0	0	0	0	3	0.03	4	1	14:26
2	Artem Zub	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	0	1	12:55

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Leevi Meriläinen	21	3	18	.857	1.82	-1.18

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
5 Aaron Ekblad D	+1.61	+1.40	+0.08	+0.08	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	22:27
42 Gustav Forsling D	+1.36	+1.45	+0.07	-0.13	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	22:55
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G	+1.34	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.34	60:00
23 Carter Verhaeghe C	+0.72	+1.30	+0.08	-0.31	-0.30	-0.01	-0.04	—	16:50
17 Evan Rodrigues C	+0.67	+0.75	+0.07	+0.02	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	18:00
11 Mackie Samoskevich R	+0.59	0.00	+0.22	+0.22	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	12:21
15 Anton Lundell C	+0.54	+0.55	+0.10	-0.11	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	20:55
95 Sandis Vilmanis L	+0.20	0.00	+0.03	+0.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:48
26 Uvis Balinskis D	+0.07	0.00	+0.01	+0.17	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	21:55
53 Jack Studnicka C	+0.02	0.00	+0.03	-0.04	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	—	6:37
9 Sam Bennett C	0.00	0.00	+0.16	-0.14	0.00	-0.07	+0.05	—	20:08
27 Eetu Luostarinen C	-0.02	0.00	+0.04	-0.22	+0.15	-0.01	+0.02	—	17:04
77 Niko Mikkola D	-0.09	0.00	+0.06	-0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	24:27
13 Sam Reinhart C	-0.18	0.00	+0.21	-0.38	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	21:59
70 Jesper Boqvist C	-0.24	0.00	0.00	-0.23	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	8:13
71 Luke Kunin C	-0.30	0.00	0.00	-0.32	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	7:38
10 A.J. Greer L	-0.31	0.00	0.00	-0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	12:22
6 Donovan Sebrango D	-0.39	0.00	+0.03	-0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:11
2 Jeff Petry D	-0.55	0.00	0.00	-0.60	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:10

Ottawa Senators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
28 Claude Giroux R	+1.92	+1.25	+0.09	+0.48	0.00	+0.10	0.00	—	19:15
12 Shane Pinto C	+1.68	+0.70	+0.20	+0.82	-0.15	+0.03	+0.08	—	19:04
20 Fabian Zetterlund L	+1.23	+0.75	+0.34	+0.09	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:09
19 Drake Batherson R	+1.17	+0.75	+0.35	-0.05	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	18:25
72 Thomas Chabot D	+0.85	0.00	+0.02	+0.76	-0.15	0.00	+0.22	—	21:31
22 Michael Amadio R	+0.74	0.00	+0.25	+0.49	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:36
89 Lars Eller C	+0.61	0.00	0.00	+0.46	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	7:00
85 Jake Sanderson D	+0.55	+0.55	+0.18	-0.33	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	28:07
24 Dylan Cozens C	+0.52	0.00	+0.11	+0.31	+0.15	-0.01	-0.04	—	16:34
43 Tyler Kleven D	+0.27	0.00	+0.02	+0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	14:26
2 Artem Zub D	+0.21	0.00	+0.06	+0.25	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	12:55
7 Brady Tkachuk L	+0.20	0.00	+0.45	-0.23	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	18:59
10 Jordan Spence D	+0.20	0.00	+0.03	+0.19	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:05
57 David Perron L	+0.08	0.00	+0.03	+0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:24
21 Nick Cousins C	+0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.02	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	9:53
3 Nick Jensen D	-0.13	0.00	+0.01	-0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:14
71 Ridly Greig C	-0.23	0.00	+0.01	-0.24	0.00	-0.01	+0.01	—	12:14
18 Tim Stützle C	-0.34	0.00	+0.03	-0.30	0.00	-0.04	-0.02	—	24:01
1 Leevi Meriläinen G	-1.18	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.18	57:48

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.