| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
 |
1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Scoring
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1:49 | |
Nikita Kucherov (21) Brayden Point (17) · snap xG 0.20 | 1–0 ▶ |
| 4:15 | |
Garnet Hathaway (1) Noah Juulsen (5), Rodrigo Abols (7) · tip-in xG 0.07 | 1–1 ▶ |
| 6:05 | |
Nikita Kucherov (22) Brayden Point (18), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (12) · snap xG 0.06 | 2–1 ▶ |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 13:37 | |
Nick Paul (5) Charle-Edouard D'Astous (13), Anthony Cirelli (14) · snap xG 0.34 | 3–1 ▶ |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 2:03 | |
Gage Goncalves (5) Nikita Kucherov (42), Darren Raddysh (25) · snap xG 0.29 | 4–1 ▶ |
| 3:37 | |
Brandon Hagel (21) Jake Guentzel (26), Anthony Cirelli (15) · snap xG 0.26 | 5–1 ▶ |
| 4:45 | |
Owen Tippett (14)PP Christian Dvorak (19) · slap xG 0.05 | 5–2 ▶ |
| 9:00 | |
Yanni Gourde (6) Zemgus Girgensons (3) · snap xG 0.14 | 6–2 ▶ |
| 11:00 | |
Gage Goncalves (6) Nikita Kucherov (43), Brayden Point (19) · snap xG 0.14 | 7–2 ▶ |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| TBL | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.49 | Expected goals | 2.13 |
| 7 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 2.85 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.13 |
| 52 | Shot attempts | 39 |
| 37 | Unblocked attempts | 31 |
| 23 | Shots on goal | 20 |
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 13:57 | PHI | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · PHI takes the lead, 65–35%
TBL had led since 1:49 of the 1st, by as much as 60% |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 3:37 | TBL | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 63–37%
PHI had led since 13:57 of the 1st, by as much as 75% |
| 3:37 | PHI | Goalie | Goalie · Ersson −2.4 goals saved
5 goals on 2.64 xG, 17 shots on goal |
| 11:20 | TBL | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced PHI 1.20–0.19
In xG over 10 minutes, 1:20 to 11:20 of the 3rd; goals 4–1 |
Shot map
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
Box score
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 59 | Jake Guentzel | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 |
| 20 | Nick Paul | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.39 | 2 | 0 | 17:02 |
| 37 | Yanni Gourde | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.24 | 2 | 1 | 16:19 |
| 38 | Brandon Hagel | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.34 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 |
| 29 | Pontus Holmberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.36 | 1 | 0 | 15:28 |
| 71 | Anthony Cirelli | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 1 | 15:24 |
| 93 | Gage Goncalves | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 0 | 15:05 |
| 86 | Nikita Kucherov | 2 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 1 | 14:24 |
| 28 | Oliver Bjorkstrand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 1 | 0 | 14:04 |
| 21 | Brayden Point | 0 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 |
| 28 | Zemgus Girgensons | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 0 | 13:28 |
| 17 | Dominic James | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 12:11 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 43 | Darren Raddysh | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 4 | 0.05 | 2 | 0 | 21:57 |
| 90 | J.J. Moser | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | 21:29 |
| 51 | Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 0 | 20:28 |
| 24 | Max Crozier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.04 | 3 | 0 | 18:47 |
| 81 | Erik Cernak | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 2 | 18:17 |
| 72 | Declan Carlile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 1 | 1 | 15:39 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | 20 | 2 | 18 | .900 | 2.13 | +0.13 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 22 | Christian Dvorak | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 0.47 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 |
| 46 | Trevor Zegras | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 1 | 17:11 |
| 39 | Matvei Michkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 1 | 17:10 |
| 14 | Sean Couturier | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 0 | 15:59 |
| 74 | Owen Tippett | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 4 | 0.35 | 2 | 1 | 15:56 |
| 17 | Nikita Grebenkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.19 | 5 | 0 | 15:40 |
| 27 | Noah Cates | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.03 | 1 | 0 | 15:22 |
| 86 | Denver Barkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 14:30 |
| 91 | Carl Grundstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.13 | 2 | 1 | 13:49 |
| 21 | Garnet Hathaway | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.09 | 5 | 0 | 11:37 |
| 18 | Rodrigo Abols | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.07 | 1 | 0 | 11:10 |
| 44 | Nicolas Deslauriers | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 1 | 10:28 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 55 | Rasmus Ristolainen | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 20:36 |
| 6 | Travis Sanheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 20:26 |
| 36 | Emil Andrae | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.09 | 2 | 2 | 20:22 |
| 8 | Cam York | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 |
| 47 | Noah Juulsen | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 3 | 19:05 |
| 24 | Nick Seeler | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 0.02 | 3 | 1 | 18:33 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson | 23 | 7 | 16 | .696 | 3.49 | -3.51 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86 Nikita Kucherov R | +4.16 | +2.90 | +0.21 | +1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 14:24 |
| 21 Brayden Point C | +3.09 | +1.95 | +0.11 | +1.01 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.04 | — | 13:35 |
| 51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | +2.93 | +1.25 | +0.07 | +1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 20:28 |
| 71 Anthony Cirelli C | +2.69 | +1.10 | +0.20 | +1.33 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.03 | — | 15:24 |
| 43 Darren Raddysh D | +2.65 | +0.55 | +0.04 | +2.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 21:57 |
| 93 Gage Goncalves C | +2.58 | +1.50 | +0.28 | +0.96 | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 15:05 |
| 59 Jake Guentzel C | +2.12 | +0.70 | +0.11 | +1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 17:41 |
| 20 Nick Paul L | +1.73 | +0.75 | +0.25 | +0.68 | 0.00 | +0.05 | 0.00 | — | 17:02 |
| 38 Brandon Hagel L | +1.56 | +0.75 | +0.22 | +0.74 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:10 |
| 37 Yanni Gourde C | +1.44 | +0.75 | +0.15 | +0.35 | +0.15 | -0.03 | +0.07 | — | 16:19 |
| 28 Zemgus Girgensons C | +1.27 | +0.70 | +0.16 | +0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:28 |
| 90 J.J. Moser D | +1.12 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 21:29 |
| 81 Erik Cernak D | +0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 18:17 |
| 29 Pontus Holmberg R | +0.58 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:28 |
| 67 Declan Carlile D | +0.36 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.07 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 15:39 |
| 22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R | +0.16 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:04 |
| 88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G | +0.13 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.13 | 60:00 |
| 17 Dominic James C | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.02 | — | 12:11 |
| 24 Max Crozier D | -0.11 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:47 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Christian Dvorak C | +0.54 | +0.70 | +0.31 | -0.45 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 18:11 |
| 19 Garnet Hathaway R | +0.41 | +0.75 | +0.06 | -0.25 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:37 |
| 18 Rodrigo Abols C | +0.22 | +0.55 | +0.04 | -0.34 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 11:10 |
| 47 Noah Juulsen D | +0.15 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 19:05 |
| 44 Nicolas Deslauriers L | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 10:28 |
| 36 Emil Andrae D | -0.02 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 20:22 |
| 91 Carl Grundstrom R | -0.22 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 13:49 |
| 27 Noah Cates L | -0.22 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.21 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.04 | — | 15:22 |
| 29 Nikita Grebenkin R | -0.33 | 0.00 | +0.13 | -0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 15:40 |
| 46 Trevor Zegras C | -0.47 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.55 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.03 | — | 17:11 |
| 55 Rasmus Ristolainen D | -0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 20:36 |
| 52 Denver Barkey C | -0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:30 |
| 74 Owen Tippett R | -0.93 | +0.75 | +0.23 | -1.95 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 15:56 |
| 39 Matvei Michkov R | -1.07 | 0.00 | +0.21 | -1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 17:10 |
| 6 Travis Sanheim D | -1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 20:26 |
| 24 Nick Seeler D | -1.18 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -1.37 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 18:33 |
| 8 Cam York D | -1.29 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -1.13 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 19:55 |
| 14 Sean Couturier C | -1.65 | 0.00 | +0.12 | -1.71 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.00 | — | 15:59 |
| 33 Samuel Ersson G | -3.51 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -3.51 | 60:00 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.