Sunday, January 11, 2026
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
CBJ 76%Deserve to win 24% UTA
CBJ UTA
3.81 Expected goals 2.18
3 Goals (no shootout) 2
2.54 Expected goals, 5 on 5 1.68
74 Shot attempts 66
53 Unblocked attempts 41
36 Shots on goal 27
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
2nd Period
18:40
CBJ
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced UTA 1.29–0.15
In xG over 10 minutes, 10:20 of the 2nd to 0:20 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
Shot map
CBJ shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → UTA shoots
Jack McBain: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:10)
Daniil But: poke, 15 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 0:32)
Kirill Marchenko: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 1:27)
Mathieu Olivier: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:29)
Dante Fabbro: slap, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:40)
Egor Zamula: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:35)
Cole Sillinger: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:29)
Cole Sillinger: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 6:38)
Kirill Marchenko: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:51)
Mikael Pyyhtia: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:40)
Dante Fabbro: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:27)
Mathieu Olivier: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 9:35)
Brendan Gaunce: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:17)
Dylan Guenther: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:05)
Dylan Guenther: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:43)
Brendan Gaunce: snap, 90 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:50)
Daniil But: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:17)
Zach Werenski: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:07)
Brandon Tanev: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:16)
Sean Durzi: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:42)
Brendan Gaunce: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 13:52)
Mathieu Olivier: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:21)
Adam Fantilli: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:05)
Cole Sillinger: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 15:07)
Clayton Keller: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:05)
Nate Schmidt: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:38)
Barrett Hayton: slap, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:00)
Barrett Hayton: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 17:14)
Zach Werenski: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:58)
JJ Peterka: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:10)
Nate Schmidt: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:07)
Kailer Yamamoto: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 3:22)
JJ Peterka: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:42)
JJ Peterka: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 4:59)
Cole Sillinger: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:15)
Kirill Marchenko: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:32)
Cole Sillinger: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:38)
Boone Jenner: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:51)
Boone Jenner: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:02)
Kailer Yamamoto: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:47)
Zach Werenski: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:27)
Jack McBain: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:34)
Dylan Guenther: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:05)
Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:12)
Mikael Pyyhtia: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:55)
Dmitri Voronkov: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 12:21)
Charlie Coyle: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:58)
Clayton Keller: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:31)
Kent Johnson: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 13:56)
Kent Johnson: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 14:17)
Ivan Provorov: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:29)
Kevin Stenlund: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 17:15)
Daniil But: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:22)
Charlie Coyle: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:10)
Charlie Coyle: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 18:27)
Adam Fantilli: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:29)
Adam Fantilli: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 18:30)
Lawson Crouse: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:28)
JJ Peterka: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 2:40)
Clayton Keller: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:53)
Dylan Guenther: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:57)
Barrett Hayton: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:06)
Ivan Provorov: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 4:17)
John Marino: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:39)
Nick Schmaltz: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:35)
Cole Sillinger: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:39)
Lawson Crouse: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:07)
Zach Werenski: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:48)
Boone Jenner: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:14)
Sean Durzi: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:37)
Nick Schmaltz: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:48)
Kirill Marchenko: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:58)
Clayton Keller: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:05)
Brendan Gaunce: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:56)
Danton Heinen: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 10:58)
Damon Severson: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:42)
Dmitri Voronkov: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 11:44)
Sean Monahan: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 12:16)
Ivan Provorov: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:05)
Brandon Tanev: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:00)
Michael Carcone: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:20)
Charlie Coyle: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:30)
Nick Schmaltz: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 15:18)
Mikhail Sergachev: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:39)
Clayton Keller: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:05)
Zach Werenski: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:39)
Zach Werenski: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 0:21)
Kirill Marchenko: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 0:36)
Zach Werenski: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 0:49)
Mikael Pyyhtia: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:47)
Jack McBain: GOAL, deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 16:20)
Mikhail Sergachev: GOAL, snap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:02)
Charlie Coyle: GOAL, wrist, 1 ft, xG 0.36 (P2 18:31)
Dmitri Voronkov: GOAL, tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (OT 1:01)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Columbus Blue Jackets
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Jet Greaves
27 2 25
.926
2.18
+0.18
Utah Mammoth
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
8 Zach Werenski D
+1.52
+0.70
+0.15
+0.47
+0.15
0.00
+0.05
—
28:19
86 Kirill Marchenko R
+1.43
+1.10
+0.18
+0.06
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
18:11
9 Ivan Provorov D
+1.42
+0.55
+0.07
+0.69
0.00
0.00
+0.11
—
25:07
10 Dmitri Voronkov L
+1.38
+0.75
+0.29
+0.24
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
14:03
19 Adam Fantilli C
+1.34
+0.70
+0.16
+0.38
+0.15
-0.03
-0.02
—
18:56
3 Charlie Coyle C
+1.15
+0.75
+0.48
-0.10
0.00
+0.02
0.00
—
17:29
43 Danton Heinen L
+1.10
+0.70
+0.07
+0.30
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
10:13
82 Mikael Pyyhtia L
+1.01
+0.75
+0.05
+0.22
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
11:54
4 Cole Sillinger C
+0.98
0.00
+0.44
+0.46
0.00
+0.01
+0.07
—
15:06
16 Brendan Gaunce C
+0.59
0.00
+0.10
+0.38
0.00
+0.01
+0.10
—
14:32
91 Kent Johnson C
+0.48
0.00
+0.15
+0.32
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
14:24
78 Damon Severson D
+0.44
0.00
+0.02
+0.24
0.00
0.00
+0.18
—
21:16
6 Egor Zamula D
+0.36
0.00
+0.01
+0.32
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
22:21
24 Mathieu Olivier R
+0.32
0.00
+0.13
+0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
16:53
23 Sean Monahan C
+0.26
0.00
+0.10
+0.14
0.00
-0.03
+0.05
—
12:58
73 Jet Greaves G
+0.18
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.18
61:01
5 Denton Mateychuk D
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
0:41
15 Dante Fabbro D
-0.06
0.00
+0.01
-0.13
0.00
0.00
+0.06
—
20:43
38 Boone Jenner C
-0.25
0.00
+0.07
-0.21
-0.15
0.00
+0.04
—
16:58
Utah Mammoth
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
9 Clayton Keller R
+1.54
+1.40
+0.12
+0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
21:00
57 Nick DeSimone D
+0.91
+0.55
0.00
+0.31
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
12:06
41 Vitek Vanecek G
+0.81
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.81
61:01
22 Jack McBain C
+0.58
+0.75
+0.17
-0.10
-0.30
+0.08
-0.02
—
11:48
8 Nick Schmaltz C
+0.38
+0.55
+0.09
-0.37
+0.15
-0.06
+0.02
—
20:49
98 Mikhail Sergachev D
+0.30
+0.75
+0.05
-0.78
+0.15
0.00
+0.13
—
25:20
28 Ian Cole D
+0.23
0.00
0.00
+0.24
0.00
0.00
-0.01
—
18:52
77 JJ Peterka R
+0.09
0.00
+0.24
-0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
15:59
19 Daniil But L
+0.09
0.00
+0.10
+0.10
-0.15
-0.02
+0.05
—
12:44
53 Michael Carcone L
0.00
0.00
+0.02
-0.08
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
12:32
11 Dylan Guenther R
-0.05
0.00
+0.16
-0.20
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
16:04
27 Barrett Hayton C
-0.10
0.00
+0.14
-0.30
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
13:49
82 Kevin Stenlund C
-0.18
0.00
+0.05
-0.33
0.00
+0.03
+0.08
—
16:29
6 John Marino D
-0.19
0.00
+0.01
-0.32
0.00
0.00
+0.12
—
20:10
13 Brandon Tanev L
-0.21
0.00
+0.07
-0.35
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
9:50
56 Kailer Yamamoto R
-0.23
0.00
+0.06
-0.34
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
10:59
67 Lawson Crouse L
-0.23
0.00
+0.07
-0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
19:14
88 Nate Schmidt D
-0.29
0.00
+0.04
-0.43
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
19:48
50 Sean Durzi D
-0.40
0.00
+0.02
-0.61
0.00
0.00
+0.18
—
22:04
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.