Florida PanthersFLA 4–3 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Monday, January 12, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Florida PanthersFLA	2	0	2	4	32
Buffalo SabresBUF	1	1	1	3	23

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:35	FLA	Sam Reinhart (24)PP Uvis Balinskis (7), Carter Verhaeghe (19) · tip-in xG 0.12	1–0 ▶
10:19	BUF	Jacob Bryson (2) Ryan McLeod (18), Zach Metsa (1) · snap xG 0.01	1–1 ▶
15:11	FLA	A.J. Greer (8) Sam Bennett (18), Carter Verhaeghe (20) · snap xG 0.05	2–1 ▶
2nd Period
17:57	BUF	Zach Benson (5) Tage Thompson (20) · wrist xG 0.57	2–2 ▶
3rd Period
11:07	FLA	Anton Lundell (14) Eetu Luostarinen (15), Gustav Forsling (15) · wrist xG 0.59	3–2 ▶
18:46	FLA	A.J. Greer (9)EN Carter Verhaeghe (21), Sam Bennett (19) · wrist xG 0.63	4–2 ▶
19:46	BUF	Alex Tuch (15) Bowen Byram (15), Rasmus Dahlin (26) · backhand xG 0.05	4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 55%Deserve to win45% BUF

FLA		BUF
3.42	Expected goals	2.53
4	Goals (no shootout)	3
2.46	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.23
70	Shot attempts	57
50	Unblocked attempts	43
32	Shots on goal	23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
11:07	FLA	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · FLA takes the lead, 60–40% BUF had led since 1:21 of the 1st, by as much as 64%
11:10	FLA	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.25–0.19 In xG over 10 minutes, 1:50 to 11:50 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
15:50	FLA	Shortened bench	Shortened bench · 3 forwards sat Boqvist, Studnicka and Kunin: no shift after 5:48 of the 3rd
18:15	BUF	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Ellis, down 3–2 With 1:45 left; FLA scored at 18:46 of the 3rd (4–2)
18:20	BUF	Shortened bench	Shortened bench · 3 forwards sat Dunne, Greenway and Malenstyn: no shift after 8:24 of the 3rd
19:04	BUF	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Ellis, down 4–2 With 0:56 left; BUF scored at 19:46 of the 3rd (4–3)

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
13	Sam Reinhart	1	0	1	0	10	0.60	1	1	20:55
23	Carter Verhaeghe	0	3	3	+1	5	0.18	1	1	20:39
9	Sam Bennett	0	2	2	+1	11	0.26	2	0	19:29
15	Anton Lundell	1	0	1	0	7	0.83	1	1	18:53
27	Eetu Luostarinen	0	1	1	0	1	0.09	1	3	18:29
18	A.J. Greer	2	0	2	+1	3	0.76	1	0	17:35
17	Evan Rodrigues	0	0	0	0	4	0.09	0	1	16:40
11	Mackie Samoskevich	0	0	0	0	6	0.09	3	0	13:46
95	Sandis Vilmanis	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	3	0	12:03
71	Luke Kunin	0	0	0	-1	1	0.16	1	1	06:25
70	Jesper Boqvist	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	06:14
23	Jack Studnicka	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	05:31
Defense
77	Niko Mikkola	0	0	0	+1	4	0.03	1	0	25:16
42	Gustav Forsling	0	1	1	-1	7	0.15	1	0	24:12
5	Aaron Ekblad	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	0	3	23:58
26	Uvis Balinskis	0	1	1	+2	1	0.03	0	0	22:19
2	Jeff Petry	0	0	0	-1	2	0.07	2	1	13:15
73	Donovan Sebrango	0	0	0	-1	3	0.05	0	0	10:44

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky	23	3	20	.870	2.53	-0.47

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
72	Tage Thompson	0	1	1	0	8	0.42	0	2	22:08
91	Josh Doan	0	0	0	0	5	0.46	0	1	19:14
89	Alex Tuch	1	0	1	-1	3	0.15	0	0	18:51
6	Zach Benson	1	0	1	+2	1	0.57	1	0	18:17
22	Jack Quinn	0	0	0	+1	7	0.26	0	0	18:03
71	Ryan McLeod	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	0	2	17:55
17	Jason Zucker	0	0	0	-1	5	0.27	2	0	16:53
9	Josh Norris	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	1	16:43
19	Peyton Krebs	0	0	0	-1	3	0.19	1	0	15:47
12	Jordan Greenway	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	08:07
44	Josh Dunne	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	3	0	07:13
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5	0	06:41
Defense
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	1	1	0	6	0.06	0	3	25:27
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	-1	7	0.08	6	3	24:27
24	Bowen Byram	0	1	1	0	5	0.04	2	1	24:16
25	Owen Power	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	0	1	23:46
73	Zach Metsa	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	0	2	10:07
78	Jacob Bryson	1	0	1	+1	1	0.01	1	0	08:18

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Colten Ellis	31	3	28	.903	2.79	-0.21

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
10 A.J. Greer L	+2.26	+1.50	+0.50	+0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:35
23 Carter Verhaeghe C	+2.25	+1.80	+0.12	+0.24	0.00	+0.01	+0.09	—	20:39
42 Gustav Forsling D	+1.50	+0.55	+0.10	+0.91	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	24:12
15 Anton Lundell C	+1.46	+0.75	+0.54	+0.09	0.00	+0.05	+0.03	—	18:53
9 Sam Bennett C	+1.27	+1.25	+0.17	+0.10	-0.15	-0.10	0.00	—	19:29
13 Sam Reinhart C	+1.18	+0.75	+0.39	+0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	20:55
27 Eetu Luostarinen C	+1.00	+0.70	+0.06	+0.10	0.00	-0.01	+0.15	—	18:29
5 Aaron Ekblad D	+0.78	0.00	+0.01	+0.64	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	23:58
17 Evan Rodrigues C	+0.41	0.00	+0.06	+0.27	0.00	+0.02	+0.07	—	16:40
11 Mackie Samoskevich R	+0.40	0.00	+0.06	+0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:46
26 Uvis Balinskis D	+0.35	+0.70	+0.02	-0.35	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	22:19
95 Sandis Vilmanis L	+0.28	0.00	+0.01	+0.12	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	12:03
77 Niko Mikkola D	+0.22	0.00	+0.02	+0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	25:16
71 Luke Kunin C	-0.05	0.00	+0.10	-0.22	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	6:25
70 Jesper Boqvist C	-0.17	0.00	0.00	-0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	6:14
6 Donovan Sebrango D	-0.20	0.00	+0.03	-0.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:44
53 Jack Studnicka C	-0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.37	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	5:31
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G	-0.47	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.47	59:37
2 Jeff Petry D	-0.76	0.00	+0.05	-0.69	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	13:15

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
72 Tage Thompson C	+2.13	+0.70	+0.27	+0.73	+0.30	+0.03	+0.10	—	22:08
6 Zach Benson L	+1.45	+0.75	+0.37	+0.35	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:17
91 Josh Doan R	+0.94	0.00	+0.30	+0.76	-0.15	-0.01	+0.05	—	19:14
71 Ryan McLeod C	+0.90	+0.70	0.00	+0.12	0.00	-0.02	+0.10	—	17:55
4 Bowen Byram D	+0.80	+0.70	+0.03	+0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.03	—	24:16
78 Jacob Bryson D	+0.72	+0.75	+0.01	-0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:18
73 Zach Metsa D	+0.58	+0.55	0.00	-0.12	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	10:07
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+0.39	+0.55	+0.04	-0.32	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	25:27
19 Peyton Krebs C	+0.38	0.00	+0.12	+0.28	0.00	+0.02	-0.04	—	15:47
22 Jack Quinn R	+0.28	0.00	+0.17	+0.13	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:03
25 Owen Power D	+0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	23:46
12 Jordan Greenway L	+0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	8:07
44 Josh Dunne C	-0.02	0.00	+0.01	-0.07	0.00	+0.04	0.00	—	7:13
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	-0.04	0.00	+0.05	-0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.11	—	24:27
29 Beck Malenstyn L	-0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	6:41
89 Alex Tuch R	-0.18	+0.75	+0.10	-0.98	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	18:51
92 Colten Ellis G	-0.21	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.21	57:28
17 Jason Zucker L	-0.78	0.00	+0.18	-0.94	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:53
9 Josh Norris C	-1.00	0.00	0.00	-1.02	0.00	-0.03	+0.05	—	16:43

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.