Tampa Bay LightningTBL 2–1 Final/SO Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Final/SO	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	SO	T	SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	0	0	1	0	2	2	31
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	0	0	1	0	1	1	27

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
14:13	TBL	J.J. Moser (5) Yanni Gourde (11), Zemgus Girgensons (5) · backhand xG 0.28	1–0 ▶
17:44	PIT	Evgeni Malkin (10) Kris Letang (20) · wrist xG 0.10	1–1 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
	PIT	Rickard Rakell vs Andrei Vasilevskiy	Saved
	TBL	Gage Goncalves vs Arturs Silovs	Goal
	PIT	Sidney Crosby vs Andrei Vasilevskiy	No shot
	TBL	Jake Guentzel vs Arturs Silovs	Saved
	PIT	Egor Chinakhov vs Andrei Vasilevskiy	Goal
	TBL	Nikita Kucherov vs Arturs Silovs	Goal

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 31%Deserve to win69% PIT

TBL		PIT
2.79	Expected goals	3.99
1	Goals (no shootout)	1
1.84	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.66
61	Shot attempts	52
45	Unblocked attempts	43
31	Shots on goal	27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
3:50	PIT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TBL 1.11–0.10 In xG over 10 minutes, 14:10 of the 1st to 4:10 of the 2nd; neither team scored
15:34	TBL	Goalie	Goalie · Vasilevskiy +2.0 goals saved 0 goals on 2.01 xG, 16 shots on goal
3rd Period
9:02	PIT	Goalie	Goalie · Silovs +2.0 goals saved 0 goals on 2.04 xG, 23 shots on goal
16:43	PIT	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Silovs, down 1–0 With 3:17 left; PIT scored at 17:44 of the 3rd (1–1)

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Nikita Kucherov	0	0	0	-1	8	0.31	0	0	26:22
38	Brandon Hagel	0	0	0	0	7	0.32	0	1	24:39
59	Jake Guentzel	0	0	0	-1	7	0.33	2	0	22:38
37	Yanni Gourde	0	1	1	+1	2	0.11	0	0	18:48
20	Nick Paul	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	0	0	15:41
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	2	0	15:28
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	0	0	+1	3	0.13	0	1	13:44
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	0	1	12:52
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	0	0	0	2	0.26	1	1	11:18
17	Dominic James	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	1	0	10:35
93	Gage Goncalves	0	0	0	0	3	0.37	0	0	10:07
37	Jack Finley	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	6	1	06:50
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	0	0	0	0	8	0.19	0	1	28:00
90	J.J. Moser	1	0	1	0	6	0.42	0	1	25:54
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	0	4	0.03	3	0	21:06
24	Max Crozier	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	0	15:59
81	Erik Cernak	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	1	14:31
72	Declan Carlile	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	0	0	12:59

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	27	1	26	.963	3.99	+2.99

Pittsburgh Penguins

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
87	Sidney Crosby	0	0	0	0	3	0.15	0	1	22:37
17	Bryan Rust	0	0	0	0	8	1.36	0	2	22:14
67	Rickard Rakell	0	0	0	0	4	0.47	0	3	21:31
71	Evgeni Malkin	1	0	1	+1	6	0.54	0	1	20:20
18	Tommy Novak	0	0	0	0	4	0.41	0	0	15:38
46	Blake Lizotte	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	0	0	14:01
19	Connor Dewar	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	1	13:45
59	Egor Chinakhov	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	0	0	13:05
52	Noel Acciari	0	0	0	0	3	0.23	1	0	12:38
81	Ben Kindel	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	0	0	12:32
39	Anthony Mantha	0	0	0	+1	4	0.12	0	0	10:50
16	Justin Brazeau	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	1	09:28
Defense
27	Brett Kulak	0	0	0	-1	3	0.10	0	2	25:56
58	Kris Letang	0	1	1	0	4	0.17	3	1	25:13
6	Jack St. Ivany	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5	1	19:58
29	Parker Wotherspoon	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	18:15
6	Ryan Shea	0	0	0	0	3	0.08	1	1	16:05
75	Connor Clifton	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	3	1	13:08

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Arturs Silovs	31	1	30	.968	2.79	+1.79

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G	+2.99	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.99	64:29
90 J.J. Moser D	+1.66	+0.75	+0.27	+0.63	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	25:54
37 Yanni Gourde C	+0.92	+0.70	+0.07	+0.22	0.00	-0.03	-0.04	—	18:48
38 Brandon Hagel L	+0.89	0.00	+0.21	+0.55	+0.11	-0.01	+0.03	—	24:39
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+0.87	0.00	+0.04	+0.66	+0.11	0.00	+0.05	—	12:52
43 Darren Raddysh D	+0.80	0.00	+0.13	+0.65	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	28:00
93 Gage Goncalves C	+0.69	0.00	+0.24	+0.45	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:07
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	+0.66	+0.55	+0.03	+0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:28
59 Jake Guentzel C	+0.35	0.00	+0.21	+0.03	+0.15	-0.03	-0.02	—	22:38
29 Pontus Holmberg R	+0.30	0.00	+0.09	+0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	13:44
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+0.14	0.00	+0.20	+0.26	-0.30	0.00	-0.02	—	26:22
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.01	0.00	+0.02	-0.16	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	21:06
20 Nick Paul L	-0.05	0.00	+0.04	-0.06	0.00	+0.01	-0.04	—	15:41
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	-0.10	0.00	+0.17	-0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	11:18
67 Declan Carlile D	-0.14	0.00	+0.04	-0.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:59
81 Erik Cernak D	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	-0.07	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	14:31
24 Max Crozier D	-0.18	0.00	0.00	-0.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:59
17 Dominic James C	-0.46	0.00	+0.04	-0.51	0.00	+0.03	-0.02	—	10:35
62 Jack Finley C	-0.53	0.00	0.00	-0.55	0.00	-0.03	+0.05	—	6:50

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
71 Evgeni Malkin C	+1.82	+0.75	+0.35	+0.53	+0.15	+0.01	+0.03	—	20:20
37 Arturs Silovs G	+1.79	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.79	63:59
58 Kris Letang D	+0.89	+0.70	+0.11	+0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	25:13
18 Tommy Novak C	+0.58	0.00	+0.26	+0.30	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	15:38
59 Egor Chinakhov R	+0.58	0.00	+0.05	+0.38	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	13:05
17 Bryan Rust R	+0.57	0.00	+0.89	-0.40	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	22:14
5 Ryan Shea D	+0.34	0.00	+0.05	+0.08	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	16:05
55 Noel Acciari C	+0.17	0.00	+0.15	-0.03	0.00	+0.03	+0.02	—	12:38
3 Jack St. Ivany D	+0.17	0.00	0.00	+0.20	0.00	0.00	-0.03	—	19:58
67 Rickard Rakell R	+0.04	0.00	+0.31	-0.42	0.00	+0.01	+0.15	—	21:57
19 Connor Dewar C	+0.03	0.00	+0.01	-0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:06
46 Blake Lizotte C	0.00	0.00	+0.07	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	14:01
77 Brett Kulak D	-0.12	0.00	+0.06	-0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	25:56
28 Parker Wotherspoon D	-0.13	0.00	+0.01	-0.17	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	18:15
81 Ben Kindel C	-0.13	0.00	+0.06	-0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	12:32
39 Anthony Mantha R	-0.20	0.00	+0.08	-0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:50
16 Justin Brazeau R	-0.34	0.00	+0.01	-0.41	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	9:28
87 Sidney Crosby C	-0.35	0.00	+0.10	-0.38	-0.15	+0.01	+0.07	—	22:37
75 Connor Clifton D	-0.97	0.00	+0.01	-0.65	-0.38	0.00	+0.05	—	13:08

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.