| Final/OT | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 31 |
 |
1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 27 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Scoring
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2:45 | |
Steven Stamkos (20) Michael Bunting (15) · wrist xG 0.10 | 0–1 ▶ |
| 17:06 | |
Zach Hyman (15)PP Leon Draisaitl (41), Connor McDavid (51) · wrist xG 0.16 | 1–1 ▶ |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 3:03 | |
Erik Haula (8) Matthew Wood (7), Adam Wilsby (6) · backhand xG 0.14 | 1–2 ▶ |
| 7:20 | |
Leon Draisaitl (25) Kasperi Kapanen (6), Vasily Podkolzin (10) · snap xG 0.12 | 2–2 ▶ |
| 13:12 | |
Zach Hyman (16)PP Leon Draisaitl (42), Connor McDavid (52) · poke xG 0.62 | 3–2 ▶ |
| 13:50 | |
Roman Josi (7) Nick Blankenburg (14) · slap xG 0.04 | 3–3 ▶ |
| 3rd Period | |||
| No scoring | |||
| Overtime | |||
| 3:43 | |
Roman Josi (8) Brady Skjei (13), Ryan O'Reilly (26) · wrist xG 0.08 | 3–4 ▶ |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| EDM | NSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.11 | Expected goals | 3.03 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 4 |
| 1.16 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.60 |
| 54 | Shot attempts | 60 |
| 43 | Unblocked attempts | 41 |
| 31 | Shots on goal | 27 |
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 14:37 | EDM | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · EDM takes the lead, 62–38%
NSH had led since 1:38 of the 1st, by as much as 74% |
| 14:40 | EDM | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.32–0.06
In xG over 10 minutes, 7:10 to 17:10 of the 1st; goals 1–0 |
Shot map
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
Box score
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 97 | Connor McDavid | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 0 | 26:25 |
| 29 | Leon Draisaitl | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0.58 | 0 | 0 | 23:59 |
| 93 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 8 | 0.41 | 0 | 2 | 20:44 |
| 18 | Zach Hyman | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1.06 | 0 | 1 | 19:13 |
| 42 | Kasperi Kapanen | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.04 | 1 | 0 | 17:43 |
| 92 | Vasily Podkolzin | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 |
| 96 | Jack Roslovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.06 | 3 | 1 | 14:48 |
| 22 | Matt Savoie | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 |
| 26 | Andrew Mangiapane | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 10:20 |
| 13 | Mattias Janmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 10:01 |
| 10 | Trent Frederic | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 0 | 06:53 |
| 53 | Isaac Howard | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.02 | 1 | 0 | 06:14 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 2 | Evan Bouchard | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.09 | 1 | 1 | 27:21 |
| 14 | Mattias Ekholm | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.02 | 4 | 4 | 21:59 |
| 25 | Darnell Nurse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.11 | 2 | 1 | 21:30 |
| 49 | Ty Emberson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 5 | 18:56 |
| 96 | Jake Walman | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.04 | 0 | 1 | 17:14 |
| 24 | Spencer Stastney | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 13:53 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry | 27 | 4 | 23 | .852 | 3.03 | -0.97 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 90 | Ryan O'Reilly | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 1 | 22:15 |
| 9 | Filip Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.33 | 2 | 0 | 17:38 |
| 77 | Luke Evangelista | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 1 | 2 | 17:27 |
| 22 | Cole Smith | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.56 | 2 | 0 | 17:06 |
| 91 | Steven Stamkos | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.45 | 2 | 0 | 16:49 |
| 56 | Erik Haula | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.58 | 1 | 0 | 16:33 |
| 58 | Michael Bunting | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.13 | 1 | 0 | 14:55 |
| 47 | Michael McCarron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | 3 | 3 | 13:59 |
| 9 | Fedor Svechkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 13:31 |
| 49 | Reid Schaefer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.05 | 2 | 0 | 11:39 |
| 71 | Matthew Wood | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 10:56 |
| 17 | Tyson Jost | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 10:53 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 59 | Roman Josi | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 7 | 0.34 | 0 | 2 | 25:36 |
| 76 | Brady Skjei | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.06 | 1 | 1 | 22:42 |
| 2 | Adam Wilsby | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0 | 1 | 21:30 |
| 48 | Nick Perbix | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 |
| 3 | Nick Blankenburg | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.02 | 3 | 0 | 17:12 |
| 72 | Justin Barron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros | 31 | 3 | 28 | .903 | 3.11 | +0.11 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Leon Draisaitl C | +2.41 | +2.15 | +0.37 | -0.06 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.06 | — | 23:59 |
| 18 Zach Hyman L | +1.93 | +1.50 | +0.69 | -0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 19:13 |
| 97 Connor McDavid C | +0.80 | +1.10 | +0.35 | -0.57 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.04 | — | 26:25 |
| 49 Ty Emberson D | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.25 | — | 18:56 |
| 25 Darnell Nurse D | +0.25 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 21:30 |
| 92 Vasily Podkolzin R | +0.06 | +0.55 | +0.01 | -0.49 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 15:17 |
| 42 Kasperi Kapanen R | 0.00 | +0.70 | +0.02 | -0.55 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 17:43 |
| 28 Jack Roslovic C | -0.02 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.25 | +0.15 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 14:48 |
| 88 Andrew Mangiapane L | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 10:20 |
| 22 Matt Savoie C | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 12:39 |
| 93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | -0.37 | 0.00 | +0.27 | -0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 20:44 |
| 96 Jake Walman D | -0.50 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 17:14 |
| 53 Isaac Howard L | -0.62 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 6:14 |
| 14 Mattias Ekholm D | -0.74 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -1.10 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.20 | — | 21:59 |
| 10 Trent Frederic C | -0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.84 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 | — | 6:53 |
| 13 Mattias Janmark C | -0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.82 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 10:01 |
| 24 Spencer Stastney D | -0.93 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 13:53 |
| 35 Tristan Jarry G | -0.97 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.97 | 63:43 |
| 2 Evan Bouchard D | -1.03 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -1.29 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 27:21 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 Erik Haula L | +2.90 | +0.75 | +0.38 | +1.65 | +0.15 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 16:33 |
| 59 Roman Josi D | +2.25 | +1.50 | +0.22 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 25:36 |
| 91 Steven Stamkos C | +1.88 | +0.75 | +0.29 | +0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:49 |
| 58 Michael Bunting L | +1.82 | +0.70 | +0.09 | +1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 14:55 |
| 37 Nick Blankenburg D | +1.44 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.88 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 17:12 |
| 90 Ryan O'Reilly C | +1.31 | +0.55 | +0.20 | +0.39 | +0.15 | +0.03 | -0.01 | — | 22:15 |
| 76 Brady Skjei D | +1.29 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 22:42 |
| 71 Matthew Wood R | +1.26 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 10:56 |
| 83 Adam Wilsby D | +1.11 | +0.55 | +0.03 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 21:30 |
| 36 Cole Smith R | +0.65 | 0.00 | +0.36 | +0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 17:06 |
| 20 Justin Barron D | +0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.71 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:01 |
| 48 Nick Perbix D | +0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 20:14 |
| 9 Filip Forsberg L | +0.46 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.53 | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 17:38 |
| 17 Tyson Jost C | +0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 10:53 |
| 49 Reid Schaefer L | +0.33 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 11:39 |
| 77 Luke Evangelista R | +0.31 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 17:27 |
| 40 Fedor Svechkov C | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | — | 13:31 |
| 74 Juuse Saros G | +0.11 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.11 | 63:43 |
| 47 Michael McCarron C | -0.20 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.36 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.13 | — | 13:59 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.