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Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 1–6 Final Utah MammothUTA

Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 001 1 20
Utah MammothUTA 132 6 41

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:22 UTA Michael Carcone (9) Nate Schmidt (12), John Marino (18) · slap xG 0.07 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
5:26 UTA Dylan Guenther (22) Jack McBain (8), Ian Cole (12) · snap xG 0.02 0–2 ▶
6:44 UTA Dylan Guenther (23) Jack McBain (9) · snap xG 0.23 0–3 ▶
15:25 UTA JJ Peterka (16) Daniil But (3), Ian Cole (13) · snap xG 0.02 0–4 ▶
3rd Period
3:30 TOR Calle Jarnkrok (6) Oliver Ekman-Larsson (21) · snap xG 0.04 1–4 ▶
13:29 UTA Jack McBain (6) Dylan Guenther (17), Michael Carcone (8) · tip-in xG 0.48 1–5 ▶
16:54 UTA Daniil But (3) Barrett Hayton (9), JJ Peterka (16) · snap xG 0.56 1–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 8%Deserve to win92% UTA
TORUTA
2.02Expected goals5.52
1Goals (no shootout)6
1.39Expected goals, 5 on 55.33
52Shot attempts91
36Unblocked attempts69
20Shots on goal41

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
16:10 UTA xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 2.78–0.00
In xG over 10 minutes, 9:40 to 19:40 of the 3rd; goals 2–0

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ UTA shoots
John Marino: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:17) Jack McBain: backhand, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:53) Scott Laughton: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:21) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:23) Bobby McMann: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:42) Jack McBain: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 3:08) Liam O'Brien: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:34) Steven Lorentz: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:54) Sean Durzi: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:30) Clayton Keller: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:33) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:34) Nick Schmaltz: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:48) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:08) Nate Schmidt: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:28) Nate Schmidt: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 6:33) Nate Schmidt: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 6:47) Matias Maccelli: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:57) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:23) William Nylander: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 9:29) Michael Carcone: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 10:04) Jack McBain: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:05) Jack McBain: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:06) Jack McBain: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:10) Simon Benoit: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:40) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:21) Sean Durzi: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 12:32) Nick DeSimone: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:11) Matias Maccelli: snap, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:49) William Nylander: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:05) Easton Cowan: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 14:27) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:40) Dylan Guenther: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:06) Dylan Guenther: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:14) Sean Durzi: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:10) Troy Stecher: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:30) Dylan Guenther: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:54) Scott Laughton: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:15) John Tavares: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 1:51) Morgan Rielly: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:56) Dylan Guenther: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:18) Dylan Guenther: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 2:24) Jack McBain: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:26) Easton Cowan: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:56) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:25) Nicolas Roy: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:26) Ian Cole: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:08) Kevin Stenlund: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:42) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:23) Nick DeSimone: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:15) Sean Durzi: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:37) Matthew Knies: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:22) Liam O'Brien: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:34) Michael Carcone: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 9:10) Michael Carcone: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:11) Auston Matthews: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:41) Auston Matthews: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:31) Morgan Rielly: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:37) Barrett Hayton: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 12:08) Brandon Tanev: tip-in, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:04) John Marino: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:11) Liam O'Brien: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:40) Kevin Stenlund: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:03) Brandon Tanev: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:09) Dylan Guenther: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:34) Auston Matthews: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:45) Jake McCabe: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:54) Max Domi: snap, 139 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:17) Michael Carcone: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:59) Nate Schmidt: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:54) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:28) Morgan Rielly: snap, 177 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:13) JJ Peterka: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:25) Ian Cole: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:29) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 6:04) Dylan Guenther: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:20) Kevin Stenlund: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:46) Auston Matthews: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 6:57) Matthew Knies: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:43) Matias Maccelli: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:00) Auston Matthews: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:11) Morgan Rielly: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:21) Michael Carcone: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 10:28) Dylan Guenther: tip-in, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:41) Daniil But: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:21) Barrett Hayton: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:01) Sean Durzi: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:37) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 14:00) Liam O'Brien: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.33 (P3 14:02) Clayton Keller: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 14:48) Lawson Crouse: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 14:55) Jack McBain: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:43) Nick DeSimone: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:09) Barrett Hayton: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 16:46) Barrett Hayton: tip-in, 3 ft, xG 0.35 (P3 16:51) Liam O'Brien: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:52) Barrett Hayton: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:39) Dylan Guenther: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:20) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:37) Michael Carcone: GOAL, slap, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:22) Dylan Guenther: GOAL, snap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:26) Dylan Guenther: GOAL, snap, 27 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 6:44) JJ Peterka: GOAL, snap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:25) Calle Jarnkrok: GOAL, snap, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:30) Jack McBain: GOAL, tip-in, 1 ft, xG 0.48 (P3 13:29) Daniil But: GOAL, snap, 11 ft, xG 0.56 (P3 16:54)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 000 -1 60.37 0119:24
74 Bobby McMann 000 -1 40.06 3018:06
88 William Nylander 000 -4 40.27 0116:49
11 Max Domi 000 0 20.00 0016:46
63 Matias Maccelli 000 -2 30.06 0015:03
89 Matthew Knies 000 -2 20.13 1114:45
21 Scott Laughton 000 0 20.05 3114:44
91 John Tavares 000 -3 30.20 3114:31
10 Nicolas Roy 000 -1 10.04 2113:28
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 40.14 3113:18
19 Calle Jarnkrok 101 0 10.04 1013:05
53 Easton Cowan 000 -1 20.23 0010:43
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 000 -1 20.04 1622:53
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 011 +1 80.19 1121:45
44 Morgan Rielly 000 -4 40.09 0219:37
44 Simon Benoit 000 -1 20.03 1317:42
25 Brandon Carlo 000 -2 00.00 2117:01
28 Troy Stecher 000 -3 20.09 0216:20
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dennis Hildeby 41635 .854 5.52 -0.48

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
67 Lawson Crouse 000 0 10.08 2019:06
8 Nick Schmaltz 000 0 90.12 0218:05
11 Dylan Guenther 213 +4 120.79 0017:17
9 Clayton Keller 000 0 20.16 0016:24
53 Michael Carcone 112 +4 90.60 0115:30
22 Jack McBain 123 +4 90.90 3015:27
10 JJ Peterka 112 +2 30.04 0015:16
82 Kevin Stenlund 000 -1 40.12 0115:09
27 Barrett Hayton 011 +2 60.78 0113:31
50 Daniil But 112 +2 20.62 4212:14
13 Brandon Tanev 000 -1 30.07 3109:18
38 Liam O'Brien 000 -1 50.42 8009:07
Defense
98 Mikhail Sergachev 000 +1 40.20 0123:59
5 Sean Durzi 000 +1 60.19 1120:41
6 John Marino 011 +3 20.01 0120:38
88 Nate Schmidt 011 +3 60.30 0119:18
28 Ian Cole 022 +1 30.01 0218:57
57 Nick DeSimone 000 +1 50.11 0114:03
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Karel Vejmelka 20119 .950 2.02 +1.02

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.51 +0.70 +0.13 -0.49 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 21:45
19 Calle Jarnkrok C +0.27 +0.75 +0.03 -0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:05
11 Max Domi C +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 16:46
34 Auston Matthews C -0.27 0.00 +0.24 -0.71 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 19:24
18 Steven Lorentz C -0.38 0.00 +0.09 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:18
2 Simon Benoit D -0.40 0.00 +0.02 -0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 17:42
35 Dennis Hildeby G -0.48 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.48 60:00
24 Scott Laughton C -0.58 0.00 +0.03 -0.54 0.00 -0.06 -0.01 — 14:44
53 Easton Cowan R -0.97 0.00 +0.15 -1.09 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:43
55 Nicolas Roy C -1.11 0.00 +0.03 -1.07 0.00 -0.07 0.00 — 13:28
63 Matias Maccelli L -1.19 0.00 +0.04 -1.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:03
74 Bobby McMann C -1.28 0.00 +0.04 -1.32 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 18:06
25 Brandon Carlo D -1.60 0.00 0.00 -1.63 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:01
28 Troy Stecher D -1.77 0.00 +0.06 -1.89 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 16:20
23 Matthew Knies L -1.92 0.00 +0.09 -2.05 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:45
22 Jake McCabe D -2.08 0.00 +0.03 -2.41 0.00 0.00 +0.30 — 22:53
91 John Tavares C -2.57 0.00 +0.13 -2.78 0.00 +0.06 +0.03 — 14:31
44 Morgan Rielly D -3.00 0.00 +0.06 -3.18 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 19:37
88 William Nylander R -3.45 0.00 +0.17 -3.47 -0.15 -0.02 +0.01 — 16:49

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Dylan Guenther R +5.40 +2.20 +0.51 +2.67 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:17
22 Jack McBain C +5.26 +2.15 +0.59 +2.69 -0.15 -0.02 0.00 — 15:27
53 Michael Carcone L +4.48 +1.30 +0.39 +2.75 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 15:30
19 Daniil But L +3.69 +1.45 +0.40 +1.72 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 12:14
88 Nate Schmidt D +3.67 +0.70 +0.20 +2.57 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 19:18
77 JJ Peterka R +2.86 +1.30 +0.03 +1.74 -0.15 -0.01 -0.04 — 15:16
27 Barrett Hayton C +2.85 +0.70 +0.51 +1.70 -0.15 +0.06 +0.03 — 13:31
98 Mikhail Sergachev D +2.83 0.00 +0.13 +2.68 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:59
6 John Marino D +2.82 +0.55 +0.01 +2.26 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:38
50 Sean Durzi D +2.72 0.00 +0.12 +2.57 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:41
28 Ian Cole D +1.20 +1.10 0.00 +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 18:57
70 Karel Vejmelka G +1.02 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.02 60:00
38 Liam O'Brien C +0.78 0.00 +0.27 +0.34 +0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 9:07
8 Nick Schmaltz C +0.62 0.00 +0.08 +0.44 0.00 -0.04 +0.14 — 18:05
9 Clayton Keller R +0.52 0.00 +0.11 +0.40 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 16:24
82 Kevin Stenlund C +0.47 0.00 +0.08 +0.25 0.00 +0.09 +0.05 — 15:09
13 Brandon Tanev L +0.38 0.00 +0.04 +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 9:18
67 Lawson Crouse L +0.27 0.00 +0.05 +0.25 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 19:06
57 Nick DeSimone D +0.15 0.00 +0.07 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:03

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.