Philadelphia FlyersPHI 2–5 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Philadelphia FlyersPHI	0	1	1	2	22
Buffalo SabresBUF	2	2	1	5	15

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
9:30	BUF	Rasmus Dahlin (5)PP Josh Doan (17), Tage Thompson (21) · snap xG 0.11	0–1 ▶
15:13	BUF	Mattias Samuelsson (8) Noah Ostlund (6), Josh Doan (18) · snap xG 0.21	0–2 ▶
2nd Period
4:22	BUF	Jack Quinn (10) Ryan McLeod (19), Zach Benson (16) · snap xG 0.18	0–3 ▶
10:28	PHI	Owen Tippett (15) Noah Cates (15) · snap xG 0.04	1–3 ▶
13:51	BUF	Rasmus Dahlin (6)PP Josh Norris (11), Tage Thompson (22) · snap xG 0.09	1–4 ▶
3rd Period
7:37	PHI	Trevor Zegras (18)PP Travis Konecny (25), Owen Tippett (13) · deflected xG 0.25	2–4 ▶
19:20	BUF	Ryan McLeod (10)SHEN Alex Tuch (23) · wrist xG 0.94	2–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PHI 45%Deserve to win55% BUF

PHI		BUF
2.42	Expected goals	3.65
2	Goals (no shootout)	5
1.57	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.88
53	Shot attempts	39
42	Unblocked attempts	30
22	Shots on goal	15

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
15:13	BUF	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 61–39% PHI had led since 6:05 of the 1st, by as much as 63%
17:00	BUF	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced PHI 1.17–0.16 In xG over 10 minutes, 7:00 to 17:00 of the 1st; goals 2–0
20:00	PHI	Goalie change	Goalie change · Ersson in for Vladar The start of the 2nd; Vladar had allowed 2 goals on 6 shots (1.17 xG)
3rd Period
10:40	BUF	No shift	No shift · Norris, 13:40 on the bench No shift after 13:51 of the 2nd; 12 shifts (8:55) before that

Shot map

PHI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Philadelphia Flyers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
46	Trevor Zegras	1	0	1	-3	10	0.68	0	0	23:07
22	Christian Dvorak	0	0	0	-2	3	0.35	1	0	22:43
11	Travis Konecny	0	1	1	-3	4	0.23	2	0	22:25
74	Owen Tippett	1	1	2	0	5	0.25	1	0	17:37
39	Matvei Michkov	0	0	0	-1	4	0.18	0	0	16:01
27	Noah Cates	0	1	1	+1	3	0.08	5	0	15:07
17	Nikita Grebenkin	0	0	0	+1	2	0.12	0	0	13:50
14	Sean Couturier	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	13:39
91	Carl Grundstrom	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	4	0	11:41
18	Rodrigo Abols	0	0	0	-1	1	0.06	1	0	09:09
21	Garnet Hathaway	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	08:01
44	Nicolas Deslauriers	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	0	05:03
Defense
9	Jamie Drysdale	0	0	0	-2	2	0.08	0	2	25:25
8	Cam York	0	0	0	-1	4	0.15	0	2	21:29
36	Emil Andrae	0	0	0	0	4	0.10	3	2	19:59
6	Travis Sanheim	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	1	1	18:51
24	Nick Seeler	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	1	1	14:47
47	Noah Juulsen	0	0	0	0	3	0.07	3	0	14:36

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Dan Vladar	6	2	4	.667	1.17	-0.83
Samuel Ersson	8	2	6	.750	1.54	-0.46

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
89	Alex Tuch	0	1	1	0	2	0.01	1	1	21:44
72	Tage Thompson	0	2	2	-1	5	0.39	0	0	20:23
71	Ryan McLeod	1	1	2	+2	5	1.40	0	0	19:18
17	Jason Zucker	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	0	0	17:36
6	Zach Benson	0	1	1	0	2	0.14	2	0	17:26
91	Josh Doan	0	2	2	+1	2	0.17	1	1	15:39
22	Jack Quinn	1	0	1	+1	3	0.39	1	0	13:48
86	Noah Ostlund	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	1	11:32
19	Peyton Krebs	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	6	1	11:16
48	Tyson Kozak	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	3	0	09:05
9	Josh Norris	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	1	0	08:55
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	7	1	08:54
Defense
23	Mattias Samuelsson	1	0	1	+2	3	0.21	3	1	24:11
24	Bowen Byram	0	0	0	+2	5	0.24	1	1	23:47
26	Rasmus Dahlin	2	0	2	-1	5	0.35	1	0	23:22
25	Owen Power	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	22:42
78	Jacob Bryson	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	0	1	12:01
73	Zach Metsa	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	0	09:31

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	22	2	20	.909	2.42	+0.42

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Philadelphia Flyers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
74 Owen Tippett R	+2.03	+1.30	+0.16	+0.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:37
27 Noah Cates L	+1.38	+0.70	+0.05	+0.59	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	15:07
29 Nikita Grebenkin R	+0.94	0.00	+0.08	+0.72	+0.15	+0.01	-0.02	—	13:50
46 Trevor Zegras C	+0.71	+0.75	+0.44	-0.32	-0.15	+0.01	-0.02	—	23:07
22 Christian Dvorak C	+0.52	0.00	+0.23	+0.08	+0.15	+0.04	+0.02	—	22:43
11 Travis Konecny R	+0.46	+0.70	+0.15	-0.07	-0.30	0.00	-0.02	—	22:25
6 Travis Sanheim D	+0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	18:51
8 Cam York D	+0.11	0.00	+0.10	+0.06	-0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	21:29
24 Nick Seeler D	+0.08	0.00	+0.01	+0.16	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	14:47
44 Nicolas Deslauriers L	-0.01	0.00	+0.02	-0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	5:03
47 Noah Juulsen D	-0.07	0.00	+0.05	-0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:38
19 Garnet Hathaway R	-0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.13	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	8:01
36 Emil Andrae D	-0.17	0.00	+0.06	-0.33	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	19:57
18 Rodrigo Abols C	-0.27	0.00	+0.04	-0.44	+0.15	-0.02	0.00	—	9:09
39 Matvei Michkov R	-0.45	0.00	+0.12	-0.71	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:01
33 Samuel Ersson G	-0.46	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.46	37:27
9 Jamie Drysdale D	-0.73	0.00	+0.06	-0.91	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	25:25
80 Dan Vladar G	-0.83	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.83	19:42
91 Carl Grundstrom R	-0.89	0.00	+0.01	-0.90	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:41
14 Sean Couturier C	-0.89	0.00	0.00	-0.82	0.00	-0.05	-0.02	—	13:39

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
71 Ryan McLeod C	+3.12	+1.45	+0.91	+0.80	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	19:18
91 Josh Doan R	+1.87	+1.25	+0.11	+0.28	+0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	15:39
22 Jack Quinn R	+1.70	+0.75	+0.25	+0.57	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	13:48
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+1.63	+0.75	+0.14	+0.74	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	24:11
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.49	+1.50	+0.23	-0.20	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	23:22
86 Noah Ostlund C	+0.96	+0.70	0.00	+0.23	0.00	-0.02	+0.05	—	11:32
4 Bowen Byram D	+0.81	0.00	+0.15	+0.78	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	23:47
72 Tage Thompson C	+0.74	+1.10	+0.26	-0.50	0.00	-0.04	-0.08	—	20:23
17 Jason Zucker L	+0.72	0.00	+0.12	+0.33	+0.30	-0.01	-0.02	—	17:36
9 Josh Norris C	+0.65	+0.70	0.00	-0.08	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	8:55
6 Zach Benson L	+0.58	+0.55	+0.09	-0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:26
89 Alex Tuch R	+0.47	+0.70	+0.01	-0.29	0.00	+0.02	+0.03	—	21:44
19 Peyton Krebs C	+0.35	0.00	0.00	+0.30	0.00	-0.02	+0.07	—	11:16
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G	+0.27	0.00	—	—	-0.15	—	—	+0.42	60:00
29 Beck Malenstyn L	+0.13	0.00	+0.09	-0.04	0.00	+0.01	+0.07	—	8:54
78 Jacob Bryson D	+0.02	0.00	+0.01	-0.04	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:01
48 Tyson Kozak C	-0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	9:05
25 Owen Power D	-0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	22:42
73 Zach Metsa D	-0.40	0.00	0.00	-0.26	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	9:31

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.