Philadelphia FlyersPHI 3–6 Final Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Thursday, January 15, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Philadelphia FlyersPHI	0	1	2	3	34
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	2	2	2	6	30

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:16	PIT	Justin Brazeau (13)PP Ben Kindel (12), Anthony Mantha (16) · tip-in xG 0.11	0–1 ▶
12:25	PIT	Bryan Rust (17)PP Kris Letang (21), Sidney Crosby (26) · wrist xG 0.07	0–2 ▶
2nd Period
1:16	PIT	Egor Chinakhov (6) Evgeni Malkin (23), Tommy Novak (14) · wrist xG 0.17	0–3 ▶
2:17	PHI	Rodrigo Abols (3) Cam York (16), Carl Grundstrom (2) · tip-in xG 0.10	1–3 ▶
18:29	PIT	Blake Lizotte (6) Noel Acciari (7) · backhand xG 0.31	1–4 ▶
3rd Period
3:10	PIT	Sidney Crosby (25)PP Evgeni Malkin (24), Rickard Rakell (12) · wrist xG 0.14	1–5 ▶
4:27	PIT	Connor Dewar (9) Tommy Novak (15) · wrist xG 0.13	1–6 ▶
10:54	PHI	Nick Seeler (2) Denver Barkey (3), Noah Juulsen (6) · wrist xG 0.03	2–6 ▶
17:25	PHI	Matvei Michkov (10) Denver Barkey (4), Sean Couturier (20) · wrist xG 0.12	3–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PHI 44%Deserve to win56% PIT

PHI		PIT
3.77	Expected goals	4.15
3	Goals (no shootout)	6
2.71	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.18
72	Shot attempts	56
56	Unblocked attempts	45
34	Shots on goal	30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
14:23	PIT	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · PIT takes the lead, 64–36% PHI had led since 8:20 of the 1st, by as much as 60%
18:20	PIT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced PHI 1.18–0.12 In xG over 10 minutes, 8:20 to 18:20 of the 1st; goals 1–0
2nd Period
2:17	PHI	Goalie change	Goalie change · Kolosov in for Ersson 2:17 of the 2nd; Ersson had allowed 3 goals on 14 shots (1.72 xG)
8:00	PHI	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced PIT 1.41–0.24 In xG over 10 minutes, 18:10 of the 1st to 8:10 of the 2nd; goals 1–1
18:30	PIT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced PHI 1.30–0.13 In xG over 10 minutes, 8:40 to 18:40 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
0:51	PIT	Goalie	Goalie · Skinner +2.0 goals saved 1 goal on 3.01 xG, 26 shots on goal

Shot map

PHI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Philadelphia Flyers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
22	Christian Dvorak	0	0	0	-2	3	0.23	1	1	17:34
46	Trevor Zegras	0	0	0	0	4	0.28	0	0	17:16
14	Sean Couturier	0	1	1	+2	6	0.30	1	0	17:09
11	Travis Konecny	0	0	0	-2	4	0.21	1	0	17:05
74	Owen Tippett	0	0	0	0	9	0.19	2	0	16:37
86	Denver Barkey	0	2	2	+2	4	0.42	0	1	16:15
17	Nikita Grebenkin	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	1	0	15:41
27	Noah Cates	0	0	0	0	5	0.43	2	0	15:33
39	Matvei Michkov	1	0	1	+2	7	0.48	1	1	14:45
91	Carl Grundstrom	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	6	0	12:06
21	Garnet Hathaway	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	2	0	11:28
18	Rodrigo Abols	1	0	1	0	3	0.21	1	1	10:37
Defense
8	Cam York	0	1	1	+1	4	0.23	1	1	23:02
9	Jamie Drysdale	0	0	0	-1	6	0.30	0	2	22:39
6	Travis Sanheim	0	0	0	+1	6	0.30	1	1	21:04
24	Nick Seeler	1	0	1	0	5	0.06	1	1	18:18
36	Emil Andrae	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	13:39
47	Noah Juulsen	0	1	1	0	3	0.04	0	1	13:38

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Samuel Ersson	14	3	11	.786	1.72	-1.28
Aleksei Kolosov	16	3	13	.813	2.43	-0.57

Pittsburgh Penguins

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
17	Bryan Rust	1	0	1	-1	6	0.50	0	1	18:59
87	Sidney Crosby	1	1	2	-1	5	0.27	0	0	18:45
67	Rickard Rakell	0	1	1	-1	7	0.64	1	0	17:35
81	Ben Kindel	0	1	1	-2	4	0.42	1	0	15:45
71	Evgeni Malkin	0	2	2	+1	2	0.09	0	1	15:34
19	Connor Dewar	1	0	1	+2	2	0.13	1	1	14:27
52	Noel Acciari	0	1	1	+2	3	0.46	0	1	13:42
46	Blake Lizotte	1	0	1	+1	1	0.31	1	0	13:17
39	Anthony Mantha	0	1	1	-2	5	0.39	1	0	12:49
16	Justin Brazeau	1	0	1	-2	4	0.35	1	1	12:44
18	Tommy Novak	0	2	2	+2	1	0.15	0	0	12:26
59	Egor Chinakhov	1	0	1	+1	2	0.17	0	0	11:19
Defense
58	Kris Letang	0	1	1	0	5	0.14	0	0	23:26
27	Brett Kulak	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	0	2	20:39
6	Ryan Shea	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	2	18:43
75	Connor Clifton	0	0	0	-1	2	0.08	3	4	18:33
29	Parker Wotherspoon	0	0	0	+1	3	0.01	7	0	16:45
6	Jack St. Ivany	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	3	1	16:32

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Stuart Skinner	34	3	31	.912	3.77	+0.77

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Philadelphia Flyers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
52 Denver Barkey C	+3.18	+1.40	+0.27	+1.33	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	16:15
39 Matvei Michkov R	+2.51	+0.75	+0.31	+1.57	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	14:45
14 Sean Couturier C	+2.44	+0.55	+0.20	+1.69	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	17:09
8 Cam York D	+1.34	+0.70	+0.15	+0.44	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	23:02
46 Trevor Zegras C	+1.09	0.00	+0.18	+0.93	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	17:16
6 Travis Sanheim D	+1.00	0.00	+0.19	+0.93	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	21:04
74 Owen Tippett R	+0.72	0.00	+0.13	+0.60	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:37
27 Noah Cates L	+0.72	0.00	+0.28	+0.51	0.00	-0.05	-0.02	—	15:33
24 Nick Seeler D	+0.58	+0.75	+0.04	-0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	18:18
18 Rodrigo Abols C	+0.50	+0.75	+0.14	-0.44	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	10:37
9 Jamie Drysdale D	+0.06	0.00	+0.20	-0.24	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	22:39
91 Carl Grundstrom R	-0.01	+0.55	0.00	-0.72	+0.15	+0.01	0.00	—	12:06
36 Emil Andrae D	-0.53	0.00	0.00	-0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:39
35 Aleksei Kolosov G	-0.57	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.57	37:43
19 Garnet Hathaway R	-0.62	0.00	+0.05	-0.52	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	11:28
47 Noah Juulsen D	-0.70	+0.55	+0.02	-1.33	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:38
33 Samuel Ersson G	-1.28	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.28	22:06
22 Christian Dvorak C	-1.81	0.00	+0.15	-2.03	0.00	+0.04	+0.03	—	17:34
11 Travis Konecny R	-2.03	0.00	+0.14	-2.30	+0.15	-0.02	0.00	—	17:05
29 Nikita Grebenkin R	-2.22	0.00	0.00	-2.20	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:41

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
55 Noel Acciari C	+2.26	+0.70	+0.30	+1.17	0.00	+0.04	+0.05	—	13:42
19 Connor Dewar C	+1.80	+0.75	+0.08	+0.92	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:27
46 Blake Lizotte C	+1.80	+0.75	+0.20	+0.85	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	13:17
16 Justin Brazeau R	+1.60	+0.75	+0.23	+0.55	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	12:44
81 Ben Kindel C	+1.35	+0.70	+0.28	+0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:45
39 Anthony Mantha R	+1.30	+0.55	+0.25	+0.48	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	12:49
75 Connor Clifton D	+1.23	0.00	+0.05	+1.00	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	18:33
87 Sidney Crosby C	+1.00	+1.30	+0.18	-0.41	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	18:45
5 Ryan Shea D	+0.99	0.00	0.00	+0.91	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	18:43
18 Tommy Novak C	+0.86	+1.25	+0.10	-0.35	-0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	12:26
71 Evgeni Malkin C	+0.84	+1.40	+0.06	-0.63	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	15:34
17 Bryan Rust R	+0.81	+0.75	+0.32	-0.44	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	18:59
74 Stuart Skinner G	+0.77	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.77	60:00
28 Parker Wotherspoon D	+0.57	0.00	+0.01	+0.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:45
67 Rickard Rakell R	+0.53	+0.55	+0.41	-0.58	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	17:35
59 Egor Chinakhov R	+0.50	+0.75	+0.11	-0.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:19
3 Jack St. Ivany D	+0.24	0.00	0.00	+0.34	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	16:32
58 Kris Letang D	-0.05	+0.70	+0.09	-0.82	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	23:26
77 Brett Kulak D	-0.86	0.00	+0.02	-0.96	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	20:39

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.