hockeystats.io

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 5–6 Final/OT Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

Thursday, January 15, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 3110 5 28
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 1131 6 33

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:05 TOR Morgan Rielly (6) William Nylander (31), John Tavares (25) · snap xG 0.13 1–0 ▶
5:03 TOR William Nylander (17) Matias Maccelli (11), Brandon Carlo (4) · backhand xG 0.09 2–0 ▶
8:12 VGK Pavel Dorofeyev (18)PP Mitch Marner (37), Jack Eichel (36) · slap xG 0.11 2–1 ▶
9:57 TOR Auston Matthews (23) Jake McCabe (14), Troy Stecher (8) · tip-in xG 0.11 3–1 ▶
2nd Period
5:51 VGK Keegan Kolesar (2) Braeden Bowman (10), Noah Hanifin (17) · wrist xG 0.41 3–2 ▶
12:46 TOR John Tavares (17)PP Matias Maccelli (12), Matthew Knies (27) · tip-in xG 0.22 4–2 ▶
3rd Period
2:10 VGK Pavel Dorofeyev (19)PP Mitch Marner (38), Tomas Hertl (22) · backhand xG 0.11 4–3 ▶
8:58 TOR Scott Laughton (6) Matthew Knies (28), Steven Lorentz (9) · snap xG 0.25 5–3 ▶
10:14 VGK Mark Stone (17) Ivan Barbashev (21), Jack Eichel (37) · deflected xG 0.42 5–4 ▶
19:53 VGK Tomas Hertl (19) Jack Eichel (38), Mark Stone (28) · wrist xG 0.14 5–5 ▶
Overtime
2:44 VGK Jack Eichel (17) Mark Stone (29) · backhand xG 0.30 5–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 34%Deserve to win66% VGK
TORVGK
2.46Expected goals3.41
5Goals (no shootout)6
1.93Expected goals, 5 on 52.18
55Shot attempts63
40Unblocked attempts48
28Shots on goal33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
9:57 VGK Goalie Goalie · Hill −2.4 goals saved
3 goals on 0.56 xG, 10 shots on goal
18:50 TOR No shift No shift · Nylander, 45:44 on the bench
No shift after 8:48 of the 1st; 4 shifts (2:17) before that
2nd Period
5:51 VGK Deserve to win Deserve to win · VGK takes the lead, 67–33%
TOR had led since 2:25 of the 1st, by as much as 65%
3rd Period
14:40 VGK No shift No shift · Laczynski, 13:06 on the bench
No shift from 4:31 to 17:37 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (8:24) before that
15:00 VGK No shift No shift · Holtz, 13:54 on the bench
No shift after 4:55 of the 3rd; 10 shifts (7:13) before that
18:20 VGK No shift No shift · Reinhardt, 10:29 on the bench
No shift after 8:20 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (7:40) before that
18:32 VGK Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Hill, down 5–4
With 1:28 left; VGK scored at 19:53 of the 3rd (5–5)
Overtime
2:44 TOR Goalie Goalie · Woll −2.6 goals saved
6 goals on 3.41 xG, 33 shots on goal

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VGK shoots
Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:04) Mitch Marner: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:35) Max Domi: wrist, 122 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:11) Scott Laughton: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 2:25) Jake McCabe: backhand, 139 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:20) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:38) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 6:22) Jack Eichel: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:43) Tomas Hertl: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 6:57) Mark Stone: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 7:30) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:51) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:57) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:01) Philippe Myers: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:31) Jake McCabe: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:35) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:55) Nicolas Roy: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:39) Reilly Smith: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 11:49) Reilly Smith: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:50) Troy Stecher: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:00) Bobby McMann: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 12:53) Ivan Barbashev: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 13:10) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:00) Bobby McMann: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:56) Jack Eichel: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:04) Mark Stone: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:36) John Tavares: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:54) Steven Lorentz: backhand, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:47) Jeremy Lauzon: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:07) Jack Eichel: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:36) Keegan Kolesar: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:53) Auston Matthews: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:58) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:28) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:40) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:48) Philippe Myers: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:07) Morgan Rielly: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:59) Jack Eichel: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:19) Auston Matthews: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:39) Philippe Myers: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:54) Philippe Myers: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:10) Bobby McMann: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:15) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:06) Matias Maccelli: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:18) Nick Robertson: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 12:55) Shea Theodore: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:45) Shea Theodore: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:55) Jeremy Lauzon: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:08) Mark Stone: wrist, 110 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:19) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:08) Shea Theodore: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:35) Mitch Marner: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:11) Reilly Smith: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:12) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:16) Auston Matthews: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 1:20) Mitch Marner: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 2:07) Matthew Knies: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:31) Easton Cowan: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:39) Alexander Holtz: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:35) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:30) Reilly Smith: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:41) Mitch Marner: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:48) Nick Robertson: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 6:08) Keegan Kolesar: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:55) Jack Eichel: wrist, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:20) Philippe Myers: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:04) Ivan Barbashev: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 10:09) Ivan Barbashev: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:11) Matias Maccelli: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:24) Braeden Bowman: bat, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 13:16) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 14:00) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:42) Jack Eichel: wrist, 76 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:54) Mark Stone: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:31) Auston Matthews: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 0:31) Mark Stone: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 1:53) Morgan Rielly: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (OT 2:32) Morgan Rielly: GOAL, snap, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 2:05) William Nylander: GOAL, backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 5:03) Pavel Dorofeyev: GOAL, slap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 8:12) Auston Matthews: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 9:57) Keegan Kolesar: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.41 (P2 5:51) John Tavares: GOAL, tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 12:46) Pavel Dorofeyev: GOAL, backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 2:10) Scott Laughton: GOAL, snap, 22 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 8:58) Mark Stone: GOAL, deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.42 (P3 10:14) Tomas Hertl: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 19:53) Jack Eichel: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.30 (OT 2:44)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 101 -3 80.45 1023:35
74 Bobby McMann 000 -1 30.21 3120:41
89 Matthew Knies 022 0 10.02 1120:07
91 John Tavares 112 +1 20.26 1018:25
11 Max Domi 000 -1 10.00 0118:13
63 Matias Maccelli 022 +1 50.12 0016:29
10 Nicolas Roy 000 0 30.01 0114:37
21 Scott Laughton 101 +1 20.43 1113:26
14 Nick Robertson 000 0 20.30 1012:18
53 Easton Cowan 000 -1 20.04 2011:29
18 Steven Lorentz 011 +2 10.02 1010:49
88 William Nylander 112 +2 10.09 0002:17
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 011 -2 20.01 0223:06
28 Troy Stecher 011 0 30.04 2321:42
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 +1 50.05 1021:10
25 Brandon Carlo 011 +1 30.00 1219:50
44 Morgan Rielly 101 0 60.28 1119:27
51 Philippe Myers 000 +1 50.12 1116:48
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 33627 .818 3.41 -2.59

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Jack Eichel 134 +2 80.44 0024:35
61 Mark Stone 123 +2 60.72 1023:25
93 Mitch Marner 022 0 40.16 2122:23
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 202 0 60.35 0021:28
49 Ivan Barbashev 011 0 60.38 2118:31
48 Tomas Hertl 112 -1 50.30 1017:40
19 Reilly Smith 000 0 40.24 0016:45
42 Braeden Bowman 011 -1 30.10 0213:22
55 Keegan Kolesar 101 -1 40.44 5011:52
28 Tanner Laczynski 000 0 00.00 0009:01
29 Cole Reinhardt 000 0 00.00 1007:40
10 Alexander Holtz 000 0 10.01 2007:13
Defense
15 Noah Hanifin 011 0 20.01 1524:38
27 Shea Theodore 000 +2 50.05 0124:32
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 0 40.18 3120:34
6 Kaedan Korczak 000 -3 00.00 0016:36
28 Zach Whitecloud 000 +1 20.02 0115:34
17 Ben Hutton 000 -2 30.00 0312:34
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Adin Hill 28523 .821 2.46 -2.54

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
88 William Nylander R +2.04 +1.45 +0.06 +0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 2:17
91 John Tavares C +1.92 +1.30 +0.17 +0.45 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 18:25
24 Scott Laughton C +1.88 +0.75 +0.28 +0.81 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 13:26
18 Steven Lorentz C +1.81 +0.55 +0.01 +1.10 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 10:49
63 Matias Maccelli L +1.73 +1.40 +0.08 +0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:29
23 Matthew Knies L +1.67 +1.25 +0.01 +0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:07
25 Brandon Carlo D +1.26 +0.55 0.00 +0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:50
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.97 +0.75 +0.18 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 19:27
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.85 0.00 +0.03 +0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:10
51 Philippe Myers D +0.69 0.00 +0.08 +0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:48
89 Nick Robertson L +0.30 0.00 +0.20 +0.14 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 12:18
53 Easton Cowan R +0.21 0.00 +0.02 +0.35 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 11:29
28 Troy Stecher D +0.02 +0.55 +0.03 -0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 21:42
55 Nicolas Roy C +0.01 0.00 +0.01 -0.06 0.00 +0.03 +0.03 — 14:37
34 Auston Matthews C -0.05 +0.75 +0.29 -1.21 0.00 +0.11 0.00 — 23:35
22 Jake McCabe D -0.79 +0.70 +0.01 -1.26 -0.30 0.00 +0.06 — 23:06
74 Bobby McMann C -1.09 0.00 +0.14 -1.28 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:41
11 Max Domi C -1.38 0.00 0.00 -1.38 0.00 -0.01 +0.01 — 18:13
60 Joseph Woll G -2.59 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.59 62:44

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
9 Jack Eichel C +3.31 +2.55 +0.29 +0.53 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 24:35
61 Mark Stone R +3.12 +2.00 +0.47 +0.54 +0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 23:25
55 Keegan Kolesar R +1.50 +0.75 +0.28 +0.48 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 11:52
48 Tomas Hertl C +1.49 +1.30 +0.20 +0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 17:40
49 Ivan Barbashev L +1.44 +0.70 +0.25 +0.45 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 18:31
15 Noah Hanifin D +1.42 +0.55 +0.01 +0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.27 — 24:38
42 Braeden Bowman R +1.12 +0.70 +0.07 +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 13:22
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +1.06 +1.50 +0.23 -0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:28
93 Mitch Marner R +0.89 +1.40 +0.10 -0.60 0.00 -0.04 +0.03 — 22:23
5 Jeremy Lauzon D +0.74 0.00 +0.12 +0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:34
27 Shea Theodore D +0.67 0.00 +0.03 +0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 24:32
2 Zach Whitecloud D +0.57 0.00 +0.01 +0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:34
19 Reilly Smith R -0.10 0.00 +0.15 -0.18 0.00 -0.03 -0.04 — 16:45
23 Cole Reinhardt L -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:40
26 Alexander Holtz R -0.34 0.00 +0.01 -0.34 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 7:13
28 Tanner Laczynski C -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:01
17 Ben Hutton D -0.97 0.00 0.00 -1.23 +0.15 0.00 +0.11 — 12:34
6 Kaedan Korczak D -1.16 0.00 0.00 -1.12 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:36
33 Adin Hill G -2.54 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.54 61:23

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.