San Jose SharksSJS 2–4 Final Detroit Red WingsDET

Friday, January 16, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
San Jose SharksSJS	1	1	0	2	22
Detroit Red WingsDET	1	1	2	4	25

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
6:18	DET	Alex DeBrincat (25)PP Lucas Raymond (36), James van Riemsdyk (8) · snap xG 0.13	0–1 ▶
9:54	SJS	Will Smith (13) Macklin Celebrini (48), John Klingberg (8) · backhand xG 0.79	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:58	SJS	Collin Graf (14) Nick Leddy (4), Sam Dickinson (5) · tip-in xG 0.08	2–1 ▶
6:55	DET	J.T. Compher (6) Marco Kasper (4) · snap xG 0.23	2–2 ▶
3rd Period
4:41	DET	Dylan Larkin (24) Lucas Raymond (37), James van Riemsdyk (9) · backhand xG 0.43	2–3 ▶
18:28	DET	Marco Kasper (4)EN Lucas Raymond (38) · wrist xG 0.74	2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

SJS 41%Deserve to win59% DET

SJS		DET
3.19	Expected goals	4.45
2	Goals (no shootout)	4
2.84	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.24
47	Shot attempts	66
28	Unblocked attempts	49
22	Shots on goal	25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
17:30	SJS	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced DET 1.56–0.35 In xG over 10 minutes, 8:20 to 18:20 of the 1st; goals 1–0
3rd Period
4:37	DET	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · DET takes the lead, 60–40% SJS had led since 9:54 of the 1st, by as much as 72%
17:40	DET	No shift	No shift · Sandin-Pellikka, 10:28 on the bench No shift after 5:31 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (9:01) before that
17:40	SJS	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Askarov, down 3–2 With 2:20 left; DET scored at 18:28 of the 3rd (2–4)
18:34	SJS	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Askarov, down 4–2 With 1:26 left

Shot map

SJS shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DET shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

San Jose Sharks

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Macklin Celebrini	0	1	1	-1	12	0.60	0	1	21:12
2	Will Smith	1	0	1	-1	4	1.08	0	0	21:10
21	Alexander Wennberg	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	2	20:00
84	Pavol Regenda	0	0	0	+1	5	0.42	1	0	18:01
51	Collin Graf	1	0	1	-1	4	0.51	1	1	16:15
27	William Eklund	0	0	0	-1	3	0.33	3	0	15:51
92	Igor Chernyshov	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	1	0	15:06
73	Tyler Toffoli	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	0	0	15:01
77	Michael Misa	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	1	1	12:25
23	Barclay Goodrow	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	10:12
81	Adam Gaudette	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0	1	09:11
63	Zack Ostapchuk	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	1	0	08:09
Defense
6	Sam Dickinson	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	1	4	21:42
9	Dmitry Orlov	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	1	0	20:42
3	John Klingberg	0	1	1	-2	3	0.00	0	1	20:13
38	Mario Ferraro	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	2	3	18:48
27	Timothy Liljegren	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	2	18:15
4	Nick Leddy	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	2	0	17:27

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Yaroslav Askarov	24	3	21	.875	3.72	+0.72

Detroit Red Wings

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
93	Alex DeBrincat	1	0	1	-2	7	0.43	0	2	18:46
71	Dylan Larkin	1	0	1	+2	10	0.96	0	0	17:46
18	Andrew Copp	0	0	0	-2	3	0.16	0	1	16:57
88	Patrick Kane	0	0	0	-2	3	0.27	0	0	16:53
23	Lucas Raymond	0	3	3	+2	3	0.06	1	0	16:53
92	Marco Kasper	1	1	2	+2	10	1.36	1	0	14:33
21	James van Riemsdyk	0	2	2	+1	1	0.05	0	0	13:49
37	J.T. Compher	1	0	1	+1	5	0.47	1	0	13:39
58	Emmitt Finnie	0	0	0	+1	3	0.06	1	0	13:17
22	Mason Appleton	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	1	0	12:55
27	Michael Rasmussen	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	12:47
25	Elmer Soderblom	0	0	0	0	3	0.23	2	0	11:56
Defense
53	Moritz Seider	0	0	0	-1	5	0.07	1	4	26:41
77	Simon Edvinsson	0	0	0	0	4	0.05	3	2	26:20
8	Ben Chiarot	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	0	4	22:47
20	Albert Johansson	0	0	0	+2	1	0.00	0	2	19:19
25	Jacob Bernard-Docker	0	0	0	+2	5	0.05	1	1	13:41
44	Axel Sandin-Pellikka	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	09:01

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
John Gibson	22	2	20	.909	3.19	+1.19

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

San Jose Sharks

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
2 Will Smith C	+1.99	+0.75	+0.70	+0.56	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	21:10
71 Macklin Celebrini C	+1.97	+0.70	+0.39	+0.80	0.00	-0.01	+0.09	—	21:14
3 John Klingberg D	+0.86	+0.55	0.00	+0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	20:12
84 Pavol Regenda L	+0.77	0.00	+0.28	+0.49	0.00	+0.03	-0.02	—	18:01
6 Sam Dickinson D	+0.72	+0.55	0.00	+0.22	-0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	21:42
30 Yaroslav Askarov G	+0.72	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.72	57:46
51 Collin Graf R	+0.49	+0.75	+0.33	-0.79	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	16:15
4 Nick Leddy D	+0.25	+0.70	0.00	-0.43	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	17:27
72 William Eklund L	+0.08	0.00	+0.22	-0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	15:51
81 Adam Gaudette R	+0.04	0.00	0.00	+0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	9:11
9 Dmitry Orlov D	+0.04	0.00	+0.04	+0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:42
23 Barclay Goodrow C	-0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:12
63 Zack Ostapchuk C	-0.10	0.00	+0.05	-0.16	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	8:09
37 Timothy Liljegren D	-0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	18:15
21 Alexander Wennberg C	-0.15	0.00	0.00	-0.19	0.00	-0.02	+0.06	—	20:00
73 Tyler Toffoli C	-0.22	0.00	0.00	-0.18	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	15:00
92 Igor Chernyshov L	-0.71	0.00	+0.07	-0.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:06
38 Mario Ferraro D	-0.83	0.00	0.00	-0.81	-0.15	0.00	+0.13	—	18:48
77 Michael Misa C	-0.89	0.00	0.00	-0.90	0.00	-0.02	+0.03	—	12:25

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
92 Marco Kasper C	+2.99	+1.45	+0.88	+0.69	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	14:33
23 Lucas Raymond L	+2.29	+2.10	+0.04	+0.17	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:53
37 J.T. Compher L	+2.05	+0.75	+0.31	+0.95	0.00	+0.02	+0.02	—	13:39
20 Albert Johansson D	+1.58	0.00	0.00	+1.20	+0.30	0.00	+0.08	—	19:19
21 James van Riemsdyk L	+1.46	+1.10	+0.03	+0.30	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	—	13:49
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D	+1.36	0.00	+0.04	+1.27	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:41
71 Dylan Larkin C	+1.32	+0.75	+0.63	-0.03	0.00	+0.03	-0.06	—	17:46
36 John Gibson G	+1.19	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.19	60:00
58 Emmitt Finnie C	+0.99	0.00	+0.04	+0.95	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:17
8 Ben Chiarot D	+0.63	0.00	+0.07	+0.37	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	22:47
85 Elmer Soderblom L	+0.47	0.00	+0.15	+0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:56
22 Mason Appleton C	+0.35	0.00	+0.06	+0.32	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	12:55
93 Alex DeBrincat R	+0.30	+0.75	+0.28	-0.82	0.00	-0.01	+0.10	—	18:46
27 Michael Rasmussen C	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.27	-0.15	-0.01	+0.05	—	12:47
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D	+0.02	0.00	0.00	+0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:01
18 Andrew Copp C	-0.64	0.00	+0.11	-0.85	0.00	+0.01	+0.09	—	16:57
77 Simon Edvinsson D	-0.66	0.00	+0.03	-0.79	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	26:20
88 Patrick Kane R	-0.80	0.00	+0.18	-0.96	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:53
53 Moritz Seider D	-0.98	0.00	+0.05	-1.20	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	26:41

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.