hockeystats.io

Florida PanthersFLA 1–9 Final Carolina HurricanesCAR

Friday, January 16, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 010 1 16
Carolina HurricanesCAR 126 9 36

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
18:35 CAR Nikolaj Ehlers (12) Jordan Staal (10), Jordan Martinook (8) · slap xG 0.17 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:19 FLA Uvis Balinskis (2) Mackie Samoskevich (15), Sandis Vilmanis (1) · slap xG 0.10 1–1 ▶
13:10 CAR Mark Jankowski (4) Alexander Nikishin (14), Mike Reilly (6) · backhand xG 0.47 1–2 ▶
16:28 CAR Alexander Nikishin (6)PP Sebastian Aho (29), Nikolaj Ehlers (24) · slap xG 0.05 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
4:08 CAR Andrei Svechnikov (13)PP Seth Jarvis (13), Sebastian Aho (30) · snap xG 0.21 1–4 ▶
11:17 CAR Nikolaj Ehlers (13)PP Seth Jarvis (14), Andrei Svechnikov (24) · snap xG 0.24 1–5 ▶
11:38 CAR Taylor Hall (10)PP Logan Stankoven (13), Mark Jankowski (5) · snap xG 0.27 1–6 ▶
13:03 CAR Nikolaj Ehlers (14) Logan Stankoven (14), Jackson Blake (13) · snap xG 0.19 1–7 ▶
18:23 CAR Taylor Hall (11) Jackson Blake (14) · snap xG 0.43 1–8 ▶
18:35 CAR Eric Robinson (10) Jesperi Kotkaniemi (5), Mark Jankowski (6) · snap xG 0.14 1–9 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 11%Deserve to win89% CAR
FLACAR
1.59Expected goals4.31
1Goals (no shootout)9
0.72Expected goals, 5 on 52.78
35Shot attempts66
27Unblocked attempts51
16Shots on goal36

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
11:38 FLA Goalie Goalie · Bobrovsky −2.7 goals saved
6 goals on 3.34 xG, 33 shots on goal
18:35 FLA Goalie Goalie · Bobrovsky −4.7 goals saved
9 goals on 4.31 xG, 36 shots on goal

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CAR shoots
Gustav Forsling: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:42) Sean Walker: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:02) Sean Walker: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:47) K'Andre Miller: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:50) Mackie Samoskevich: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:03) Donovan Sebrango: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:29) Jordan Staal: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:37) K'Andre Miller: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:59) Eric Robinson: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:00) Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:47) Sam Bennett: tip-in, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:26) Mark Jankowski: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:22) Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:42) Seth Jarvis: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:17) Jordan Staal: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:07) Jordan Martinook: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:31) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:44) Mike Reilly: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:10) Jaccob Slavin: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:35) Alexander Nikishin: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:47) Logan Stankoven: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:36) Jalen Chatfield: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:29) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 0:46) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:06) Eric Robinson: tip-in, 128 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:46) Jaccob Slavin: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:51) Niko Mikkola: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:32) Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 4:41) Jordan Staal: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:42) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:36) Sebastian Aho: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:03) Jordan Staal: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 6:25) Mackie Samoskevich: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:14) Sandis Vilmanis: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:28) Jordan Staal: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 8:21) Logan Stankoven: deflected, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:19) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 12:56) Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:04) Alexander Nikishin: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:07) Jordan Martinook: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:45) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:34) Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 178 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:46) Eric Robinson: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:37) Seth Jarvis: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:46) Niko Mikkola: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:16) Jordan Staal: wrist, 158 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:45) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:08) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:18) Evan Rodrigues: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 2:39) Sebastian Aho: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 3:48) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 4:00) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:25) Sam Reinhart: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 4:34) Uvis Balinskis: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:08) Eetu Luostarinen: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:10) Sean Walker: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:35) Eetu Luostarinen: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 10:02) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 10:32) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 10:49) Sam Bennett: wrap-around, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 12:21) Donovan Sebrango: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:25) Evan Rodrigues: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:31) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:27) Sam Bennett: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 15:09) Anton Lundell: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:19) Evan Rodrigues: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:51) Logan Stankoven: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 17:58) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:06) Nikolaj Ehlers: GOAL, slap, 11 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 18:35) Uvis Balinskis: GOAL, slap, 36 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:19) Mark Jankowski: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.47 (P2 13:10) Alexander Nikishin: GOAL, slap, 56 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:28) Andrei Svechnikov: GOAL, snap, 18 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 4:08) Nikolaj Ehlers: GOAL, snap, 15 ft, xG 0.24 (P3 11:17) Taylor Hall: GOAL, snap, 7 ft, xG 0.27 (P3 11:38) Nikolaj Ehlers: GOAL, snap, 20 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 13:03) Taylor Hall: GOAL, snap, 9 ft, xG 0.43 (P3 18:23) Eric Robinson: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 18:35)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
23 Carter Verhaeghe 000 -2 20.02 0121:04
13 Sam Reinhart 000 0 20.19 1020:24
15 Anton Lundell 000 -1 10.05 2019:36
11 Mackie Samoskevich 011 -2 50.16 2116:36
9 Sam Bennett 000 -2 40.21 1016:31
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 0 30.44 3116:12
17 Evan Rodrigues 000 -1 30.16 0114:08
95 Sandis Vilmanis 011 -2 10.08 1113:42
18 A.J. Greer 000 -2 00.00 2113:11
71 Luke Kunin 000 0 00.00 1109:26
70 Jesper Boqvist 000 0 10.00 1009:12
79 Cole Schwindt 000 0 00.00 1008:23
Defense
42 Gustav Forsling 000 -1 40.02 0022:22
26 Uvis Balinskis 101 -1 30.13 0121:31
5 Aaron Ekblad 000 -1 10.03 1020:21
77 Niko Mikkola 000 -1 20.06 2320:16
2 Jeff Petry 000 -2 10.00 0216:41
73 Donovan Sebrango 000 -2 20.02 1012:31
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky 36927 .750 4.31 -4.69

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Sebastian Aho 022 0 20.25 2017:40
24 Seth Jarvis 022 0 60.42 0117:07
11 Jordan Staal 011 +1 60.33 6116:12
37 Andrei Svechnikov 112 0 40.32 3015:42
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 314 +2 70.88 0114:14
50 Eric Robinson 101 +2 50.23 2013:47
22 Logan Stankoven 022 +1 30.26 0113:03
53 Jackson Blake 022 +2 30.09 0013:02
48 Jordan Martinook 011 0 40.12 3012:54
77 Mark Jankowski 123 +2 20.49 2012:33
71 Taylor Hall 202 0 30.70 1012:24
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi 011 +2 00.00 4012:19
Defense
19 K'Andre Miller 000 0 30.01 0327:30
26 Sean Walker 000 0 60.06 6021:27
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 +2 10.02 0019:21
74 Jaccob Slavin 000 +1 40.04 0017:56
21 Alexander Nikishin 112 +2 60.08 1016:50
6 Mike Reilly 011 +3 10.02 0114:14
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Brandon Bussi 16115 .938 1.59 +0.59

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
27 Eetu Luostarinen C +0.30 0.00 +0.29 -0.16 +0.15 -0.01 +0.03 — 16:12
71 Luke Kunin C -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 9:26
70 Jesper Boqvist C -0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 9:12
79 Cole Schwindt R -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 8:23
13 Sam Reinhart C -0.16 0.00 +0.13 -0.13 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 20:24
11 Mackie Samoskevich R -0.20 +0.70 +0.11 -1.05 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:36
95 Sandis Vilmanis L -0.34 +0.55 +0.05 -1.12 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 13:42
5 Aaron Ekblad D -0.45 0.00 +0.02 -0.61 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 20:21
17 Evan Rodrigues C -0.57 0.00 +0.11 -0.70 0.00 -0.06 +0.09 — 14:08
2 Jeff Petry D -0.63 0.00 0.00 -0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 16:41
26 Uvis Balinskis D -0.70 +0.75 +0.09 -1.71 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 21:31
42 Gustav Forsling D -0.71 0.00 +0.02 -0.53 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 22:22
15 Anton Lundell C -0.72 0.00 +0.03 -0.52 -0.15 -0.04 -0.04 — 19:36
6 Donovan Sebrango D -0.88 0.00 +0.01 -0.72 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 12:31
77 Niko Mikkola D -1.28 0.00 +0.04 -1.47 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 20:16
9 Sam Bennett C -1.50 0.00 +0.13 -1.59 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 16:31
23 Carter Verhaeghe C -1.53 0.00 +0.01 -1.58 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 21:04
10 A.J. Greer L -1.64 0.00 0.00 -1.65 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 13:11
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G -4.69 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -4.69 60:00

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +4.66 +2.80 +0.57 +1.28 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 14:14
77 Mark Jankowski L +3.04 +1.85 +0.32 +0.87 0.00 +0.04 -0.04 — 12:33
53 Jackson Blake R +2.82 +1.25 +0.06 +1.23 +0.30 0.00 -0.02 — 13:02
22 Logan Stankoven C +2.69 +1.40 +0.17 +1.05 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 13:03
71 Taylor Hall L +2.63 +1.50 +0.45 +0.68 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 12:24
21 Alexander Nikishin D +2.37 +1.45 +0.05 +0.91 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:50
11 Jordan Staal C +1.98 +0.70 +0.21 +0.90 0.00 +0.09 +0.07 — 16:12
50 Eric Robinson L +1.76 +0.75 +0.15 +0.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:47
24 Seth Jarvis C +1.76 +1.40 +0.27 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 17:07
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C +1.67 +0.70 0.00 +0.96 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 12:19
37 Andrei Svechnikov R +1.55 +1.30 +0.21 +0.05 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:42
20 Sebastian Aho C +1.45 +1.25 +0.17 +0.05 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 — 17:40
6 Mike Reilly D +1.44 +0.55 +0.01 +1.17 -0.30 0.00 +0.01 — 14:14
19 K'Andre Miller D +1.43 0.00 +0.01 +1.29 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 27:30
26 Sean Walker D +1.35 0.00 +0.04 +1.18 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 21:27
48 Jordan Martinook L +1.14 +0.55 +0.08 +0.65 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 12:54
5 Jalen Chatfield D +0.76 0.00 +0.01 +0.77 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:21
32 Brandon Bussi G +0.59 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.59 59:47
74 Jaccob Slavin D +0.45 0.00 +0.03 +0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:56

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.