hockeystats.io

Tampa Bay LightningTBL 2–3 Final/SO St. Louis BluesSTL

Friday, January 16, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 02000 2 36
St. Louis BluesSTL 20001 3 21

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
17:03 STL Jake Neighbours (12) Jordan Kyrou (12), Cam Fowler (15) · wrist xG 0.23 0–1 ▶
17:33 STL Nick Bjugstad (6) Pavel Buchnevich (17) · wrist xG 0.14 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
9:59 TBL Nikita Kucherov (24)PP Brandon Hagel (20), Darren Raddysh (28) · slap xG 0.13 1–2 ▶
11:01 TBL Oliver Bjorkstrand (7)PP Nikita Kucherov (45), Darren Raddysh (29) · wrist xG 0.13 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
TBL Gage Goncalves vs Joel Hofer Saved
STL Jake Neighbours vs Andrei Vasilevskiy Saved
TBL Jake Guentzel vs Joel Hofer Saved
STL Jordan Kyrou vs Andrei Vasilevskiy Goal
TBL Nikita Kucherov vs Joel Hofer Saved

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 82%Deserve to win18% STL
TBLSTL
4.18Expected goals2.01
2Goals (no shootout)2
2.38Expected goals, 5 on 51.42
74Shot attempts42
63Unblocked attempts32
36Shots on goal21

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
8:02 STL Goalie Goalie · Hofer +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.04 xG, 16 shots on goal
11:10 TBL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced STL 1.47–0.25
In xG over 10 minutes, 3:00 to 13:00 of the 2nd; goals 2–0

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ STL shoots
Nick Paul: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 1:39) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:30) Max Crozier: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:37) Max Crozier: poke, 4 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 2:39) Gage Goncalves: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 3:08) Erik Cernak: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:15) Colton Parayko: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:57) Colton Parayko: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:06) Colton Parayko: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:05) Pontus Holmberg: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:36) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:53) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:59) Nick Paul: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:05) Darren Raddysh: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:10) Max Crozier: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:44) Jake Guentzel: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 11:07) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:30) Darren Raddysh: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:51) Brandon Hagel: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:37) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:51) Jake Guentzel: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 14:26) Yanni Gourde: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:08) Zemgus Girgensons: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:10) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:23) Max Crozier: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:21) Jonatan Berggren: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:33) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 17:01) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:14) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 19:00) Oskar Sundqvist: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:57) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 0:35) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:43) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:19) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:19) Brandon Hagel: slap, 18 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 3:26) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:31) Alexey Toropchenko: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 4:44) Justin Faulk: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:33) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:38) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:54) Erik Cernak: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:27) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:59) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.45 (P2 8:02) Darren Raddysh: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:58) Darren Raddysh: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:09) Brandon Hagel: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 9:19) Colton Parayko: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:16) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:25) Jake Guentzel: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:00) Justin Faulk: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:25) J.J. Moser: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:17) Anthony Cirelli: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:36) Erik Cernak: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:11) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:02) Declan Carlile: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:00) Max Crozier: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:04) J.J. Moser: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:23) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:27) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:41) Brandon Hagel: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:57) Oliver Bjorkstrand: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 0:49) Darren Raddysh: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 0:54) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 1:13) Jordan Kyrou: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 1:51) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 2:51) Nick Paul: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:53) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:15) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:16) Brandon Hagel: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:32) J.J. Moser: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:39) Philip Broberg: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:50) Jack Finley: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:28) Justin Faulk: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:46) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:38) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:25) Nathan Walker: bat, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 8:27) Nathan Walker: bat, 5 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 8:28) Dalibor Dvorsky: backhand, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:47) Oliver Bjorkstrand: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:44) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:14) Erik Cernak: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:35) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:41) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:29) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:45) Oskar Sundqvist: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:40) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 0:28) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (OT 0:56) Justin Faulk: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 1:32) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 2:50) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 3:11) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 4:00) Jake Neighbours: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 17:03) Nick Bjugstad: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 17:33) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, slap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 9:59) Oliver Bjorkstrand: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 11:01)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
38 Brandon Hagel 011 0 60.41 0025:43
86 Nikita Kucherov 112 -2 90.34 0023:37
59 Jake Guentzel 000 -2 90.72 0022:10
71 Anthony Cirelli 000 0 20.55 0220:09
37 Yanni Gourde 000 0 40.09 0016:56
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 0 30.03 3014:22
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 0 20.06 0114:19
20 Nick Paul 000 -2 30.23 0114:05
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 101 0 50.37 0012:55
93 Gage Goncalves 000 0 10.12 0011:50
17 Dominic James 000 0 00.00 2007:43
37 Jack Finley 000 0 10.07 3007:08
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 022 -1 90.53 1327:01
90 J.J. Moser 000 -1 30.13 0122:16
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 000 -1 30.14 1021:26
81 Erik Cernak 000 -1 40.09 0019:40
24 Max Crozier 000 0 70.29 2116:06
72 Declan Carlile 000 0 30.01 0113:52
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 21219 .905 2.01 +0.01

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
10 Brayden Schenn 000 0 00.00 2019:55
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 000 0 70.34 0219:54
25 Jordan Kyrou 011 +1 60.42 0018:19
89 Pavel Buchnevich 011 +1 20.11 0018:15
63 Jake Neighbours 101 +1 20.23 4016:36
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 000 +1 20.05 1015:25
70 Oskar Sundqvist 000 0 20.02 2014:49
28 Otto Stenberg 000 0 00.00 0014:10
72 Nick Bjugstad 101 +1 10.14 1113:46
29 Jonatan Berggren 000 +1 10.01 0013:42
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 0 20.20 4012:25
26 Nathan Walker 000 0 20.28 6011:28
Defense
6 Philip Broberg 000 +2 30.04 0025:15
72 Justin Faulk 000 +1 40.12 0023:08
55 Colton Parayko 000 +1 50.04 0322:54
17 Cam Fowler 011 0 10.00 0118:01
75 Tyler Tucker 000 0 10.01 3215:58
23 Logan Mailloux 000 0 10.01 1115:56
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joel Hofer 36234 .944 4.18 +2.18

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
86 Nikita Kucherov R +2.57 +1.45 +0.22 +0.60 +0.30 0.00 0.00 — 23:37
38 Brandon Hagel L +1.55 +0.70 +0.27 +0.58 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 25:43
24 Max Crozier D +1.40 0.00 +0.19 +1.18 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:06
71 Anthony Cirelli C +1.12 0.00 +0.36 +0.69 0.00 +0.01 +0.06 — 20:09
43 Darren Raddysh D +1.06 +1.10 +0.34 -0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 27:01
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +0.92 +0.75 +0.24 -0.22 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:55
67 Declan Carlile D +0.79 0.00 0.00 +0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:52
59 Jake Guentzel C +0.52 0.00 +0.47 +0.27 -0.15 -0.01 -0.06 — 22:10
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D +0.45 0.00 +0.09 +0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:26
20 Nick Paul L +0.39 0.00 +0.15 +0.15 0.00 +0.04 +0.05 — 14:05
28 Zemgus Girgensons C +0.20 0.00 +0.02 +0.21 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 14:22
29 Pontus Holmberg R +0.19 0.00 +0.04 +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:19
37 Yanni Gourde C +0.16 0.00 +0.06 +0.10 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 16:56
81 Erik Cernak D +0.07 0.00 +0.06 +0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:40
93 Gage Goncalves C +0.04 0.00 +0.08 +0.15 -0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 11:50
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G +0.01 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.01 64:42
62 Jack Finley C -0.11 0.00 +0.05 -0.17 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 7:08
17 Dominic James C -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.16 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 7:43
90 J.J. Moser D -0.19 0.00 +0.08 -0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:16

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
30 Joel Hofer G +2.18 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.18 64:58
25 Jordan Kyrou R +1.04 +0.70 +0.28 +0.09 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 18:19
63 Jake Neighbours L +1.01 +0.75 +0.15 +0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:36
77 Nick Bjugstad C +0.74 +0.75 +0.09 -0.22 0.00 +0.07 +0.05 — 13:46
17 Cam Fowler D +0.29 +0.55 0.00 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:01
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +0.29 +0.70 +0.07 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 18:15
6 Philip Broberg D +0.21 0.00 +0.02 +0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 25:15
26 Nathan Walker L +0.13 0.00 +0.18 +0.13 -0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 11:28
70 Oskar Sundqvist C +0.12 0.00 +0.02 -0.18 +0.30 -0.04 +0.02 — 14:49
13 Alexey Toropchenko R -0.08 0.00 +0.13 -0.05 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:25
23 Logan Mailloux D -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 15:56
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R -0.14 0.00 +0.22 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:54
72 Justin Faulk D -0.16 0.00 +0.08 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 23:08
75 Tyler Tucker D -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 15:58
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R -0.26 0.00 +0.03 -0.33 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 15:25
10 Brayden Schenn C -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.15 -0.08 +0.02 — 19:55
29 Jonatan Berggren R -0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 13:42
28 Otto Stenberg C -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:10
55 Colton Parayko D -0.67 0.00 +0.03 -0.84 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 22:54

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.