Nashville PredatorsNSH 7–3 Final Colorado AvalancheCOL

Friday, January 16, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH	2	2	3	7	30
Colorado AvalancheCOL	2	0	1	3	43

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:30	NSH	Ryan O'Reilly (14) Filip Forsberg (17) · backhand xG 0.34	1–0 ▶
1:24	COL	Brock Nelson (23) Brent Burns (16), Valeri Nichushkin (16) · backhand xG 0.35	1–1 ▶
7:32	NSH	Ryan O'Reilly (15) Luke Evangelista (26), Filip Forsberg (18) · wrist xG 0.04	2–1 ▶
11:16	COL	Brock Nelson (24) Josh Manson (16), Sam Malinski (21) · wrist xG 0.16	2–2 ▶
2nd Period
13:01	NSH	Ryan O'Reilly (16) Luke Evangelista (27), Roman Josi (16) · wrist xG 0.14	3–2 ▶
18:04	NSH	Michael Bunting (12) Steven Stamkos (12) · wrist xG 0.09	4–2 ▶
3rd Period
1:09	COL	Martin Necas (22) Nathan MacKinnon (46), Artturi Lehkonen (20) · snap xG 0.13	4–3 ▶
15:13	NSH	Filip Forsberg (17)PP Ryan O'Reilly (27), Roman Josi (17) · wrist xG 0.07	5–3 ▶
17:04	NSH	Steven Stamkos (21)EN Michael Bunting (16), Roman Josi (18) · wrist xG 0.52	6–3 ▶
17:41	NSH	Michael McCarron (2)SHEN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.92	7–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 33%Deserve to win67% COL

NSH		COL
3.78	Expected goals	2.85
7	Goals (no shootout)	3
1.74	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.47
57	Shot attempts	66
39	Unblocked attempts	53
30	Shots on goal	43

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
3:13	COL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · COL takes the lead, 60–40% NSH had led since 0:30 of the 1st, by as much as 69%
18:04	COL	Goalie	Goalie · Blackwood −2.5 goals saved 4 goals on 1.54 xG, 22 shots on goal
3rd Period
16:45	COL	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Blackwood, down 5–3 With 3:15 left; NSH scored at 17:04 of the 3rd (6–3)
16:50	COL	No shift	No shift · Solovyov, 10:09 on the bench No shift from 5:27 to 17:04 of the 3rd; 13 shifts (10:11) before that

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
90	Ryan O'Reilly	3	1	4	+4	8	0.77	0	0	19:44
9	Filip Forsberg	1	2	3	+3	9	0.15	0	1	18:34
77	Luke Evangelista	0	2	2	+3	2	0.00	0	0	18:11
91	Steven Stamkos	1	1	2	+1	5	0.57	0	0	16:55
58	Michael Bunting	1	1	2	+1	4	0.15	0	1	15:20
56	Erik Haula	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	0	1	15:07
9	Fedor Svechkov	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	12:26
47	Michael McCarron	1	0	1	0	2	0.93	3	1	12:23
22	Cole Smith	0	0	0	-2	1	0.08	2	0	12:13
17	Tyson Jost	0	0	0	0	6	0.23	2	1	12:05
71	Matthew Wood	0	0	0	0	3	0.14	1	0	11:11
49	Reid Schaefer	0	0	0	-2	2	0.12	6	0	11:04
Defense
59	Roman Josi	0	3	3	+3	3	0.06	0	2	26:16
76	Brady Skjei	0	0	0	+4	6	0.50	0	1	23:58
41	Nicolas Hague	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	22:08
48	Nick Perbix	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	0	1	20:55
3	Nick Blankenburg	0	0	0	-1	3	0.01	0	0	14:18
72	Justin Barron	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	2	13:12

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Juuse Saros	43	3	40	.930	2.85	-0.15

Colorado Avalanche

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
29	Nathan MacKinnon	0	1	1	-2	4	0.26	0	1	20:37
88	Martin Necas	1	0	1	-2	3	0.19	1	3	20:10
62	Artturi Lehkonen	0	1	1	-3	5	0.37	0	0	18:30
17	Parker Kelly	0	0	0	-1	2	0.11	4	0	16:52
11	Brock Nelson	2	0	2	-3	4	0.60	1	2	16:13
43	Valeri Nichushkin	0	1	1	-3	7	0.21	0	1	15:18
18	Jack Drury	0	0	0	0	3	0.26	1	1	14:33
95	Victor Olofsson	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	0	0	13:32
79	Ross Colton	0	0	0	+1	6	0.20	0	0	13:31
54	Gavin Brindley	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	2	0	12:13
93	Zakhar Bardakov	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	10:24
49	Ivan Ivan	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	0	09:36
Defense
8	Cale Makar	0	0	0	-3	5	0.06	0	1	23:26
70	Sam Malinski	0	1	1	+1	9	0.18	0	3	22:33
42	Josh Manson	0	1	1	+1	5	0.08	2	2	21:11
49	Samuel Girard	0	0	0	-3	0	0.00	0	1	20:04
84	Brent Burns	0	1	1	+1	6	0.02	0	0	19:07
7	Ilya Solovyov	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	1	1	11:21

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood	28	5	23	.821	1.93	-3.07

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
90 Ryan O'Reilly C	+4.52	+2.95	+0.50	+0.95	0.00	+0.12	0.00	—	19:44
9 Filip Forsberg L	+3.09	+2.00	+0.10	+0.95	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	18:35
59 Roman Josi D	+2.56	+1.65	+0.04	+0.79	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	26:16
77 Luke Evangelista R	+2.29	+1.40	0.00	+0.87	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	18:11
76 Brady Skjei D	+1.21	0.00	+0.33	+0.86	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	23:58
91 Steven Stamkos C	+1.17	+1.45	+0.37	-0.64	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	16:55
58 Michael Bunting L	+0.95	+1.45	+0.10	-0.65	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:19
47 Michael McCarron C	+0.83	+0.75	+0.61	-0.59	0.00	+0.02	+0.05	—	12:23
17 Tyson Jost C	-0.09	0.00	+0.15	-0.28	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	12:05
74 Juuse Saros G	-0.15	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.15	60:00
71 Matthew Wood R	-0.17	0.00	+0.09	-0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:11
40 Fedor Svechkov C	-0.28	0.00	0.00	-0.29	0.00	+0.05	-0.04	—	12:26
48 Nick Perbix D	-0.54	0.00	0.00	-0.57	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	20:55
41 Nicolas Hague D	-0.59	0.00	0.00	-0.62	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	22:08
49 Reid Schaefer L	-0.61	0.00	+0.08	-0.67	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	11:04
56 Erik Haula L	-0.63	0.00	+0.04	-0.71	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:07
36 Cole Smith R	-0.75	0.00	+0.05	-0.62	-0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	12:13
20 Justin Barron D	-0.78	0.00	0.00	-0.86	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	13:12
37 Nick Blankenburg D	-0.92	0.00	+0.01	-0.89	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	14:18

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
11 Brock Nelson C	+2.27	+1.50	+0.39	+0.36	0.00	-0.06	+0.08	—	16:13
70 Sam Malinski D	+1.56	+0.55	+0.11	+0.76	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	22:33
84 Brent Burns D	+1.45	+0.70	+0.01	+0.74	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:53
42 Josh Manson D	+1.44	+0.70	+0.05	+0.63	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	21:11
20 Ross Colton C	+1.28	0.00	+0.13	+1.02	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	13:31
13 Valeri Nichushkin R	+1.14	+0.55	+0.13	+0.40	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:18
88 Martin Necas C	+0.97	+0.75	+0.12	+0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.09	—	20:07
29 Nathan MacKinnon C	+0.78	+0.70	+0.17	-0.05	0.00	-0.09	+0.05	—	20:37
18 Jack Drury C	+0.64	0.00	+0.17	+0.43	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	14:35
62 Artturi Lehkonen L	+0.46	+0.55	+0.24	-0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:30
95 Victor Olofsson L	+0.22	0.00	+0.08	+0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:33
93 Zakhar Bardakov C	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.08	0.00	-0.01	+0.09	—	10:24
17 Parker Kelly C	+0.02	0.00	+0.07	-0.04	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	16:52
8 Cale Makar D	+0.01	0.00	+0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	23:26
54 Gavin Brindley C	+0.01	0.00	+0.08	-0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:13
82 Ivan Ivan C	-0.05	0.00	+0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	9:36
28 Ilya Solovyov D	-0.20	0.00	+0.03	-0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	11:35
49 Samuel Girard D	-0.52	0.00	0.00	-0.53	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	20:04
39 Mackenzie Blackwood G	-3.07	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-3.07	59:31

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.