hockeystats.io

New York IslandersNYI 2–4 Final Calgary FlamesCGY

Saturday, January 17, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
New York IslandersNYI 011 2 30
Calgary FlamesCGY 130 4 19

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:51 CGY Yegor Sharangovich (10) Rasmus Andersson (20), Kevin Bahl (6) · wrist xG 0.10 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:04 CGY Adam Klapka (5) Kevin Bahl (7), Morgan Frost (14) · tip-in xG 0.11 0–2 ▶
9:50 CGY Justin Kirkland (1) Ryan Lomberg (4), Adam Klapka (6) · wrist xG 0.16 0–3 ▶
11:49 CGY Yan Kuznetsov (4) Nazem Kadri (25), Connor Zary (11) · wrist xG 0.03 0–4 ▶
12:21 NYI Jean-Gabriel Pageau (8) Matthew Schaefer (18), Simon Holmstrom (12) · wrist xG 0.07 1–4 ▶
3rd Period
17:04 NYI Anders Lee (11) Calum Ritchie (6), Matthew Schaefer (19) · wrist xG 0.03 2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NYI 80%Deserve to win20% CGY
NYICGY
3.87Expected goals2.70
2Goals (no shootout)4
2.82Expected goals, 5 on 51.21
75Shot attempts53
59Unblocked attempts37
30Shots on goal19

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
15:20 NYI xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced CGY 1.22–0.13
In xG over 10 minutes, 5:40 to 15:40 of the 1st; goals 0–1
2nd Period
7:16 CGY Goalie Goalie · Wolf +2.1 goals saved
0 goals on 2.11 xG, 12 shots on goal
11:49 NYI Goalie Goalie · Rittich −2.9 goals saved
4 goals on 1.14 xG, 10 shots on goal

Shot map

NYI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CGY shoots
Anders Lee: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:28) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:41) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:42) Connor Zary: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 2:02) Yegor Sharangovich: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 3:35) MacKenzie Weegar: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:51) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:18) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:36) Maxim Shabanov: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.28 (P1 6:39) Emil Heineman: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:43) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:49) Ryan Pulock: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:00) Anders Lee: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 8:06) Anders Lee: bat, 4 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 8:07) Anders Lee: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 8:40) Casey Cizikas: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 9:00) Maxim Shabanov: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:27) Joel Hanley: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:34) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:48) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:35) Casey Cizikas: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 12:01) Adam Pelech: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:05) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:50) Marc Gatcomb: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:31) Emil Heineman: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:23) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:11) Calum Ritchie: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 18:32) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 19:04) Jonathan Drouin: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:13) Ryan Pulock: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:47) Mathew Barzal: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:14) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:26) Matt Coronato: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:31) Jonathan Drouin: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 1:10) Adam Boqvist: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:00) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:04) Joel Farabee: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:47) Matt Coronato: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 4:03) Kevin Bahl: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:13) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:55) Emil Heineman: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:15) Connor Zary: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:57) Anders Lee: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 7:16) Jonathan Drouin: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 8:28) Anders Lee: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 9:18) Joel Hanley: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:19) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:07) Yegor Sharangovich: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 12:43) Kyle MacLean: wrap-around, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:16) Maxim Shabanov: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:43) Ryan Lomberg: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:14) Simon Holmstrom: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:40) Joel Hanley: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:19) Anthony Duclair: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:49) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:06) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:38) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:33) Adam Pelech: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:17) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:19) MacKenzie Weegar: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:55) Yegor Sharangovich: tip-in, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:26) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:46) Tony DeAngelo: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:58) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:03) Joel Farabee: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 2:10) Matthew Schaefer: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:29) Jonathan Drouin: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 4:53) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:27) Casey Cizikas: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 6:19) Ryan Pulock: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:14) Hunter Brzustewicz: tip-in, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:55) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:28) Connor Zary: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 9:43) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: wrist, 116 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:49) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 10:53) Kevin Bahl: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:41) Emil Heineman: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:54) Ryan Pulock: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:12) Anders Lee: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 13:20) Anders Lee: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 13:22) Maxim Shabanov: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:31) Dustin Wolf: wrist, 176 ft, xG 0.41 (P3 14:38) Anders Lee: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 14:54) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:18) Anthony Duclair: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:24) Emil Heineman: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:44) Ryan Pulock: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:08) Maxim Shabanov: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:09) Yan Kuznetsov: wrist, 168 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 19:40) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:58) Yegor Sharangovich: GOAL, wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 11:51) Adam Klapka: GOAL, tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 3:04) Justin Kirkland: GOAL, wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 9:50) Yan Kuznetsov: GOAL, wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:49) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: GOAL, wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:21) Anders Lee: GOAL, wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:04)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Mathew Barzal 000 -1 30.12 0021:46
51 Emil Heineman 000 0 70.25 4221:44
11 Anthony Duclair 000 -1 30.16 0018:20
92 Simon Holmstrom 011 0 20.11 0118:07
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 101 0 40.19 3017:07
72 Anders Lee 101 -1 111.15 2016:58
64 Calum Ritchie 011 0 10.20 1115:16
92 Jonathan Drouin 000 +1 40.48 0015:09
49 Maxim Shabanov 000 -2 50.40 1112:47
53 Casey Cizikas 000 0 30.38 1012:12
32 Kyle MacLean 000 0 10.02 4209:31
17 Marc Gatcomb 000 0 20.03 5108:35
Defense
48 Matthew Schaefer 022 -1 90.10 0125:35
77 Tony DeAngelo 000 0 50.07 1323:59
6 Ryan Pulock 000 0 70.14 0020:56
3 Adam Pelech 000 -1 40.04 2419:20
24 Scott Mayfield 000 -2 30.01 1013:48
34 Adam Boqvist 000 -1 10.01 0010:34
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
David Rittich 19415 .789 1.92 -2.08

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
11 Mikael Backlund 000 0 40.05 0219:51
17 Yegor Sharangovich 101 -1 70.34 1117:31
91 Nazem Kadri 011 0 40.20 0017:28
27 Matt Coronato 000 +1 20.12 0016:34
86 Joel Farabee 000 -1 30.19 0116:27
47 Connor Zary 011 +1 40.37 0016:20
10 Jonathan Huberdeau 000 +1 10.00 1015:17
16 Morgan Frost 011 +1 20.00 0014:48
92 Matvei Gridin 000 0 20.06 3114:17
43 Adam Klapka 112 +2 10.11 1011:38
28 Justin Kirkland 101 +1 10.16 0210:45
94 Ryan Lomberg 011 +1 10.03 0010:37
Defense
4 Rasmus Andersson 011 +2 50.09 0225:40
7 Kevin Bahl 022 +3 20.01 0121:38
52 MacKenzie Weegar 000 0 30.06 1221:00
37 Yan Kuznetsov 101 -1 30.40 1019:03
44 Joel Hanley 000 0 40.09 1113:58
48 Hunter Brzustewicz 000 0 30.01 0113:22
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dustin Wolf 30228 .933 3.87 +1.87

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C +1.75 +0.75 +0.13 +0.86 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 17:07
27 Anders Lee L +1.61 +0.75 +0.75 +0.08 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 16:58
48 Matthew Schaefer D +1.45 +1.25 +0.06 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 25:35
29 Jonathan Drouin L +1.38 0.00 +0.31 +1.08 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 15:09
10 Simon Holmstrom R +1.31 +0.55 +0.07 +0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:07
64 Calum Ritchie C +0.75 +0.70 +0.13 -0.11 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 15:16
53 Casey Cizikas C +0.71 0.00 +0.25 +0.39 0.00 +0.07 0.00 — 12:12
34 Adam Boqvist D +0.68 0.00 +0.01 +0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 10:34
6 Ryan Pulock D +0.66 0.00 +0.09 +0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:56
51 Emil Heineman L +0.58 0.00 +0.16 +0.20 +0.15 -0.01 +0.08 — 21:44
77 Tony DeAngelo D +0.55 0.00 +0.05 +0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 23:59
3 Adam Pelech D +0.50 0.00 +0.03 +0.55 -0.30 0.00 +0.22 — 19:20
16 Marc Gatcomb C +0.46 0.00 +0.02 +0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:35
11 Anthony Duclair L +0.45 0.00 +0.11 +0.19 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:20
32 Kyle MacLean C +0.39 0.00 +0.02 +0.39 -0.15 +0.02 +0.12 — 9:31
24 Scott Mayfield D +0.34 0.00 +0.01 +0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:48
13 Mathew Barzal C +0.26 0.00 +0.08 +0.18 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 21:46
49 Max Shabanov R -0.04 0.00 +0.26 -0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:47
33 David Rittich G -2.08 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.08 52:16

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
32 Dustin Wolf G +1.87 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.87 59:57
43 Adam Klapka R +1.34 +1.30 +0.07 -0.04 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 11:38
7 Kevin Bahl D +1.16 +1.25 +0.01 0.00 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 21:38
4 Rasmus Andersson D +0.98 +0.70 +0.06 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 25:40
16 Morgan Frost C +0.95 +0.55 0.00 +0.27 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:48
23 Justin Kirkland C +0.58 +0.75 +0.10 -0.32 0.00 -0.03 +0.08 — 10:45
17 Yegor Sharangovich C +0.54 +0.75 +0.22 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 17:31
70 Ryan Lomberg L +0.43 +0.70 +0.02 -0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:37
86 Joel Farabee L +0.27 0.00 +0.12 -0.02 +0.15 +0.01 +0.01 — 16:27
91 Nazem Kadri C +0.21 +0.70 +0.13 -0.56 0.00 -0.06 0.00 — 17:28
47 Connor Zary C +0.16 +0.55 +0.24 -0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:20
48 Hunter Brzustewicz D -0.10 0.00 +0.01 -0.29 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 13:22
10 Jonathan Huberdeau L -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.10 -0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 15:17
37 Yan Kuznetsov D -0.16 +0.75 +0.26 -1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:03
27 Matt Coronato R -0.24 0.00 +0.08 -0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:34
44 Joel Hanley D -0.25 0.00 +0.06 -0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:58
11 Mikael Backlund C -0.64 0.00 +0.03 -0.71 0.00 -0.06 +0.10 — 19:51
92 Matvei Gridin R -0.69 0.00 +0.04 -0.72 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 14:17
52 MacKenzie Weegar D -1.07 0.00 +0.04 -1.14 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 21:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.