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Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 4–3 Final/OT Winnipeg JetsWPG

Saturday, January 17, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 0121 4 37
Winnipeg JetsWPG 0210 3 30

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
2:23 WPG Alex Iafallo (9) Logan Stanley (8), Vladislav Namestnikov (4) · tip-in xG 0.07 0–1 ▶
8:59 WPG Kyle Connor (23) Gabriel Vilardi (25) · snap xG 0.17 0–2 ▶
9:22 TOR Auston Matthews (24) Max Domi (16), Morgan Rielly (22) · wrist xG 0.15 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
2:28 WPG Nino Niederreiter (7) Vladislav Namestnikov (5), Luke Schenn (5) · tip-in xG 0.10 1–3 ▶
5:58 TOR Oliver Ekman-Larsson (8) Nick Robertson (13), Easton Cowan (8) · slap xG 0.11 2–3 ▶
15:33 TOR Bobby McMann (15) Oliver Ekman-Larsson (22), Morgan Rielly (23) · tip-in xG 0.09 3–3 ▶
Overtime
3:08 TOR Max Domi (6) Auston Matthews (16), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (23) · wrist xG 0.15 4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 46%Deserve to win54% WPG
TORWPG
3.30Expected goals3.55
4Goals (no shootout)3
2.09Expected goals, 5 on 52.11
59Shot attempts67
46Unblocked attempts52
37Shots on goal30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
12:30 TOR No shift No shift · Myers, 14:35 on the bench
No shift after 2:28 of the 3rd; 13 shifts (9:18) before that

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WPG shoots
Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:21) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 76 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:51) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:06) Cole Koepke: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:41) Alex Iafallo: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:05) Easton Cowan: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:54) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:13) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:08) Logan Stanley: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:05) Adam Lowry: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:06) Adam Lowry: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:07) Easton Cowan: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:53) Morgan Barron: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 9:23) Mark Scheifele: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:20) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 13:09) Kyle Connor: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 14:39) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:41) Steven Lorentz: bat, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:19) Luke Schenn: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:34) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:36) Mark Scheifele: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:44) Alex Iafallo: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:01) Auston Matthews: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:26) Troy Stecher: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:39) Auston Matthews: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:42) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 1:38) Tanner Pearson: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:50) Troy Stecher: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:15) Adam Lowry: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:28) Adam Lowry: between-legs, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 3:34) Easton Cowan: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:59) Nicolas Roy: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:05) Nick Robertson: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:50) Nick Robertson: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:50) Jonathan Toews: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 6:58) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:59) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:01) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:02) Steven Lorentz: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 7:11) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:12) Josh Morrissey: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:30) Steven Lorentz: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 8:32) Adam Lowry: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.35 (P2 11:04) Adam Lowry: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 11:05) Morgan Barron: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:59) Kyle Connor: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 12:13) Troy Stecher: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:57) Matthew Knies: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 14:06) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:09) Auston Matthews: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:25) Mark Scheifele: bat, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:11) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:16) Auston Matthews: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:10) Nino Niederreiter: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 19:42) Morgan Barron: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:59) Bobby McMann: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 1:42) Philippe Myers: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:54) Morgan Rielly: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:04) Nino Niederreiter: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 2:15) Vladislav Namestnikov: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:26) Easton Cowan: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:36) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:51) Jake McCabe: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 3:43) Max Domi: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 3:55) Vladislav Namestnikov: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:29) Morgan Barron: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:38) Cole Koepke: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:44) Max Domi: between-legs, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 6:12) Calle Jarnkrok: backhand, 91 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:50) Alex Iafallo: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:01) Kyle Connor: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:21) John Tavares: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 10:02) Nicolas Roy: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:56) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:46) Troy Stecher: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:26) Elias Salomonsson: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:01) Alex Iafallo: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:08) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 17:22) Kyle Connor: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:58) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:08) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:09) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 18:10) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 154 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:41) Max Domi: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:44) Auston Matthews: deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:45) Max Domi: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:50) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (OT 0:40) Auston Matthews: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 0:41) Max Domi: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.19 (OT 0:46) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 1:07) Adam Lowry: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 1:50) Alex Iafallo: GOAL, tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 2:23) Kyle Connor: GOAL, snap, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 8:59) Auston Matthews: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 9:22) Nino Niederreiter: GOAL, tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 2:28) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: GOAL, slap, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 5:58) Bobby McMann: GOAL, tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 15:33) Max Domi: GOAL, wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (OT 3:08)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 112 +2 90.62 1121:38
91 John Tavares 000 -1 30.09 0019:40
11 Max Domi 112 +3 60.69 0019:14
89 Matthew Knies 000 -2 10.10 1018:58
74 Bobby McMann 101 +2 20.25 4016:51
63 Matias Maccelli 000 -1 30.14 2016:09
10 Nicolas Roy 000 0 30.14 0113:21
21 Scott Laughton 000 0 00.00 1013:11
14 Nick Robertson 011 0 40.08 1112:27
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 40.40 3011:18
53 Easton Cowan 011 +1 40.21 1010:53
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 -1 30.02 1010:29
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 000 -1 10.16 1125:30
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 123 +4 30.11 3225:10
28 Troy Stecher 000 -1 50.11 0221:43
44 Morgan Rielly 022 0 10.03 0018:55
25 Brandon Carlo 000 0 60.14 0318:39
51 Philippe Myers 000 -2 10.01 2009:18
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dennis Hildeby 30327 .900 3.55 +0.55

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
55 Mark Scheifele 000 0 70.31 0222:27
81 Kyle Connor 101 0 60.49 0021:44
13 Gabriel Vilardi 011 +1 50.22 0020:49
9 Alex Iafallo 101 +1 60.34 0117:36
19 Jonathan Toews 000 0 40.38 0017:35
91 Cole Perfetti 000 +1 50.13 0017:06
62 Nino Niederreiter 101 +1 30.28 0014:32
17 Adam Lowry 000 -1 70.85 3114:29
7 Vladislav Namestnikov 022 +1 30.14 1013:33
36 Morgan Barron 000 -2 50.11 1010:59
70 Tanner Pearson 000 -2 30.13 1108:55
45 Cole Koepke 000 -1 20.03 1008:02
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 000 0 40.05 0125:57
2 Dylan DeMelo 000 +1 00.00 1321:45
54 Dylan Samberg 000 -2 10.00 1121:35
8 Logan Stanley 011 +1 30.07 2117:37
57 Elias Salomonsson 000 -2 20.02 1017:16
2 Luke Schenn 011 0 10.00 5013:27
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck 37433 .892 3.30 -0.70

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +3.09 +2.00 +0.07 +0.98 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 25:10
34 Auston Matthews C +2.56 +1.45 +0.41 +0.61 0.00 +0.03 +0.07 — 21:38
11 Max Domi C +2.47 +1.45 +0.45 +0.64 0.00 -0.01 -0.06 — 19:14
74 Bobby McMann C +1.76 +0.75 +0.17 +0.88 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:51
44 Morgan Rielly D +1.23 +1.10 +0.02 -0.03 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:55
53 Easton Cowan R +1.00 +0.55 +0.13 +0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:53
89 Nick Robertson L +0.83 +0.70 +0.05 +0.20 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 12:27
35 Dennis Hildeby G +0.55 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.55 63:08
55 Nicolas Roy C +0.33 0.00 +0.09 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:21
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.01 0.00 +0.26 -0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:18
28 Troy Stecher D -0.04 0.00 +0.07 -0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 21:43
91 John Tavares C -0.19 0.00 +0.06 -0.31 0.00 +0.06 0.00 — 19:40
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.20 0.00 +0.09 -0.25 -0.15 0.00 +0.11 — 18:39
22 Jake McCabe D -0.23 0.00 +0.11 -0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 25:30
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.23 0.00 +0.01 -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:29
24 Scott Laughton C -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.30 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 13:11
51 Philippe Myers D -0.40 0.00 +0.01 -0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:18
63 Matias Maccelli L -0.46 0.00 +0.09 -0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:09
23 Matthew Knies L -1.06 0.00 +0.07 -1.07 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 18:58

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
7 Vladislav Namestnikov C +2.11 +1.25 +0.09 +0.79 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:33
81 Kyle Connor L +1.93 +0.75 +0.32 +0.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:44
62 Nino Niederreiter R +1.80 +0.75 +0.18 +0.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:32
9 Alex Iafallo L +1.54 +0.75 +0.22 +0.71 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 17:36
55 Mark Scheifele C +1.24 0.00 +0.20 +1.00 0.00 -0.06 +0.10 — 22:27
64 Logan Stanley D +1.02 +0.70 +0.04 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:37
44 Josh Morrissey D +0.76 0.00 +0.03 +0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 25:57
5 Luke Schenn D +0.65 +0.55 0.00 +0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:27
17 Adam Lowry C +0.64 0.00 +0.55 +0.13 0.00 -0.09 +0.05 — 14:29
2 Dylan DeMelo D +0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 21:45
13 Gabriel Vilardi C +0.48 +0.70 +0.14 -0.66 +0.30 +0.01 -0.02 — 20:49
91 Cole Perfetti C -0.37 0.00 +0.09 -0.62 +0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 17:06
45 Cole Koepke L -0.43 0.00 +0.02 -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:02
19 Jonathan Toews C -0.50 0.00 +0.25 -0.56 -0.15 +0.01 -0.04 — 17:35
70 Tanner Pearson L -0.50 0.00 +0.09 -0.62 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 8:55
54 Dylan Samberg D -0.64 0.00 0.00 -0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:35
37 Connor Hellebuyck G -0.70 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.70 63:08
57 Elias Salomonsson D -0.99 0.00 +0.01 -0.97 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:16
36 Morgan Barron C -1.09 0.00 +0.07 -1.19 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 10:59

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.