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Nashville PredatorsNSH 2–7 Final Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

Saturday, January 17, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH 101 2 29
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 025 7 36

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
14:10 NSH Luke Evangelista (7) Roman Josi (19) · deflected xG 0.16 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
17:17 VGK Alexander Holtz (2) Shea Theodore (18), Cole Reinhardt (4) · slap xG 0.04 1–1 ▶
18:22 VGK Shea Theodore (7) Jeremy Lauzon (8), Keegan Kolesar (8) · snap xG 0.04 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
5:52 VGK Pavel Dorofeyev (20) Mitch Marner (39) · snap xG 0.18 1–3 ▶
8:52 VGK Mark Stone (18) Jack Eichel (39), Zach Whitecloud (5) · wrist xG 0.23 1–4 ▶
12:26 VGK Cole Reinhardt (2) Alexander Holtz (3), Tanner Laczynski (1) · wrist xG 0.14 1–5 ▶
13:16 VGK Mitch Marner (12) Reilly Smith (6), Akira Schmid (1) · snap xG 0.09 1–6 ▶
15:12 VGK Keegan Kolesar (3) Tomas Hertl (23), Braeden Bowman (11) · backhand xG 0.22 1–7 ▶
19:38 NSH Filip Forsberg (18)PP Ryan O'Reilly (28), Roman Josi (20) · wrist xG 0.08 2–7 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 29%Deserve to win71% VGK
NSHVGK
2.41Expected goals3.70
2Goals (no shootout)7
1.72Expected goals, 5 on 53.01
61Shot attempts63
44Unblocked attempts46
29Shots on goal36

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
4:20 VGK xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.17–0.09
In xG over 10 minutes, 14:40 of the 1st to 4:40 of the 2nd; neither team scored
11:14 NSH Goalie Goalie · Annunen +2.1 goals saved
0 goals on 2.06 xG, 22 shots on goal
3rd Period
13:16 NSH Goalie Goalie · Annunen −2.8 goals saved
6 goals on 3.19 xG, 32 shots on goal
18:40 VGK xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.18–0.13
In xG over 10 minutes, 8:40 to 18:40 of the 3rd; goals 4–0

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VGK shoots
Cole Smith: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:52) Michael McCarron: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:09) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:13) Kaedan Korczak: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:44) Keegan Kolesar: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 5:42) Cole Reinhardt: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:43) Cole Reinhardt: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 6:51) Brady Skjei: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:01) Mark Stone: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:14) Nicolas Hague: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 7:56) Zach Whitecloud: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 8:32) Cole Smith: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:54) Michael McCarron: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:09) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 9:59) Jack Eichel: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:31) Shea Theodore: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 10:33) Jack Eichel: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:46) Nicolas Hague: wrist, 108 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:52) Erik Haula: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:46) Michael Bunting: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:56) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:35) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 14:57) Mitch Marner: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:06) Pavel Dorofeyev: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 16:21) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 16:36) Mitch Marner: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 16:50) Jack Eichel: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 17:05) Filip Forsberg: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:26) Jack Eichel: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:00) Jack Eichel: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:46) Jack Eichel: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:10) Shea Theodore: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 0:18) Mark Stone: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 0:40) Reilly Smith: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:38) Reid Schaefer: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:03) Roman Josi: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:08) Fedor Svechkov: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:10) Jack Eichel: wrist, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:53) Jack Eichel: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:18) Jack Eichel: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:30) Ivan Barbashev: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:38) Reilly Smith: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:07) Kaedan Korczak: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:23) Erik Haula: slap, 163 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:24) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:11) Filip Forsberg: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:49) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:14) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 10:42) Roman Josi: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:51) Luke Evangelista: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:03) Shea Theodore: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 11:14) Michael Bunting: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:54) Michael Bunting: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:26) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:01) Michael McCarron: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 14:03) Jonathan Marchessault: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 16:29) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:52) Shea Theodore: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:07) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:31) Filip Forsberg: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 18:54) Cole Smith: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:57) Tyson Jost: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:27) Cole Smith: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:16) Jack Eichel: tip-in, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:15) Jack Eichel: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:31) Michael Bunting: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:13) Cole Smith: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:38) Steven Stamkos: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:14) Michael Bunting: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 8:36) Michael Bunting: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:37) Nicolas Hague: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:04) Keegan Kolesar: deflected, 20 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:23) Tanner Laczynski: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 10:57) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:11) Roman Josi: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:30) Roman Josi: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 13:43) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 14:30) Michael Bunting: wrist, 81 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:36) Reilly Smith: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:24) Zach Whitecloud: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 16:46) Roman Josi: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:50) Luke Evangelista: GOAL, deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 14:10) Alexander Holtz: GOAL, slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:17) Shea Theodore: GOAL, snap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:22) Pavel Dorofeyev: GOAL, snap, 28 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 5:52) Mark Stone: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 8:52) Cole Reinhardt: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 12:26) Mitch Marner: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 13:16) Keegan Kolesar: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 15:12) Filip Forsberg: GOAL, wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:38)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 011 +1 10.00 0219:36
9 Filip Forsberg 101 +1 60.27 0019:08
77 Luke Evangelista 101 +1 40.32 0017:55
91 Steven Stamkos 000 -3 30.16 2017:41
56 Erik Haula 000 -3 30.02 2216:27
58 Michael Bunting 000 -3 70.39 0015:29
22 Cole Smith 000 -2 60.22 0013:49
81 Jonathan Marchessault 000 -3 40.10 0013:38
47 Michael McCarron 000 -2 30.21 4112:41
9 Fedor Svechkov 000 -2 40.33 0412:25
17 Tyson Jost 000 -2 20.02 0011:17
49 Reid Schaefer 000 -2 30.03 2211:17
Defense
59 Roman Josi 022 -1 70.24 1123:26
76 Brady Skjei 000 -1 20.01 0121:37
41 Nicolas Hague 000 -2 40.10 1020:05
48 Nick Perbix 000 -2 10.00 0118:16
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 -3 10.01 1217:38
72 Justin Barron 000 -2 00.00 1013:43
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Justus Annunen 36729 .806 3.70 -3.30

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Jack Eichel 011 0 110.54 0018:53
19 Reilly Smith 011 +1 30.13 1018:04
61 Mark Stone 101 0 40.33 0117:42
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 101 +2 70.50 1017:01
93 Mitch Marner 112 +2 50.24 0116:54
48 Tomas Hertl 011 +2 20.09 0216:16
49 Ivan Barbashev 000 0 40.05 1014:30
55 Keegan Kolesar 112 +2 30.41 7013:28
42 Braeden Bowman 011 +3 00.00 1012:02
10 Alexander Holtz 112 +2 10.04 1010:58
28 Tanner Laczynski 011 +2 20.08 1210:45
29 Cole Reinhardt 112 +2 40.32 2009:33
Defense
15 Noah Hanifin 000 +1 30.19 2423:55
28 Zach Whitecloud 011 0 30.18 1020:18
27 Shea Theodore 112 +3 60.47 0219:10
5 Jeremy Lauzon 011 +2 10.07 4118:44
6 Kaedan Korczak 000 +3 20.05 1217:46
17 Ben Hutton 000 +3 20.00 2116:40
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Akira Schmid 29227 .931 2.41 +0.41

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
59 Roman Josi D +1.12 +1.25 +0.16 -0.52 +0.15 0.00 +0.09 — 23:26
9 Filip Forsberg L +0.87 +0.75 +0.18 -0.21 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:08
77 Luke Evangelista R +0.84 +0.75 +0.21 -0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:55
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +0.40 +0.70 0.00 -0.34 0.00 -0.04 +0.08 — 19:36
40 Fedor Svechkov C +0.11 0.00 +0.21 -0.35 0.00 +0.07 +0.18 — 12:25
17 Tyson Jost C -0.22 0.00 +0.01 -0.34 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 11:17
47 Michael McCarron C -0.30 0.00 +0.14 -0.47 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 12:41
76 Brady Skjei D -0.31 0.00 +0.01 -0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 21:37
20 Justin Barron D -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:43
81 Jonathan Marchessault R -0.44 0.00 +0.06 -0.49 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:38
36 Cole Smith R -0.46 0.00 +0.14 -0.62 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 13:49
37 Nick Blankenburg D -0.62 0.00 +0.01 -0.71 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:38
49 Reid Schaefer L -0.67 0.00 +0.02 -0.62 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 11:17
58 Michael Bunting L -0.92 0.00 +0.25 -1.15 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:29
56 Erik Haula L -1.07 0.00 +0.01 -1.15 0.00 +0.01 +0.06 — 16:27
41 Nicolas Hague D -1.16 0.00 +0.07 -1.25 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 20:05
48 Nick Perbix D -1.17 0.00 0.00 -1.18 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:16
91 Steven Stamkos C -1.26 0.00 +0.10 -1.35 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 17:41
29 Justus Annunen G -3.30 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -3.30 59:52

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
27 Shea Theodore D +2.90 +1.45 +0.31 +1.05 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:10
93 Mitch Marner R +2.25 +1.45 +0.16 +0.76 -0.15 -0.04 +0.07 — 16:54
55 Keegan Kolesar R +2.07 +1.30 +0.27 +0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:28
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +1.78 +0.75 +0.33 +0.72 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:01
61 Mark Stone R +1.77 +0.75 +0.22 +0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:42
48 Tomas Hertl C +1.72 +0.70 +0.06 +0.67 +0.15 +0.06 +0.08 — 16:16
23 Cole Reinhardt L +1.71 +1.30 +0.21 +0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:33
26 Alexander Holtz R +1.67 +1.45 +0.03 +0.20 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 10:58
42 Braeden Bowman R +1.59 +0.55 0.00 +1.07 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 12:02
9 Jack Eichel C +1.39 +0.70 +0.35 +0.52 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 18:53
15 Noah Hanifin D +1.37 0.00 +0.12 +1.11 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 23:55
5 Jeremy Lauzon D +1.24 +0.70 +0.05 +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:44
19 Reilly Smith R +1.19 +0.70 +0.09 +0.40 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 18:04
6 Kaedan Korczak D +1.07 0.00 +0.03 +1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:46
28 Tanner Laczynski C +1.00 +0.55 +0.05 +0.34 0.00 -0.02 +0.08 — 10:45
40 Akira Schmid G +0.96 +0.55 — — 0.00 — — +0.41 59:55
2 Zach Whitecloud D +0.80 +0.55 +0.11 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 20:18
17 Ben Hutton D +0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.88 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 16:40
49 Ivan Barbashev L +0.76 0.00 +0.03 +0.77 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:30

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.