hockeystats.io

Minnesota WildMIN 6–3 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Monday, January 19, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Minnesota WildMIN 231 6 39
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 102 3 30

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:45 MIN Vladimir Tarasenko (10)PP Ryan Hartman (9), Kirill Kaprizov (31) · wrist xG 0.16 1–0 ▶
10:29 MIN Ryan Hartman (14) Mats Zuccarello (18), Kirill Kaprizov (32) · wrist xG 0.24 2–0 ▶
18:24 TOR John Tavares (18)PP Matthew Knies (29), Auston Matthews (17) · wrist xG 0.16 2–1 ▶
2nd Period
6:53 MIN Marcus Foligno (4) Brock Faber (19), Quinn Hughes (38) · tip-in xG 0.04 3–1 ▶
8:24 MIN Vladimir Tarasenko (11) Quinn Hughes (39) · wrist xG 0.11 4–1 ▶
19:14 MIN Marcus Foligno (5)PP Brock Faber (20), Danila Yurov (12) · tip-in xG 0.12 5–1 ▶
3rd Period
6:27 TOR Nick Robertson (11) Nicolas Roy (14), Easton Cowan (9) · deflected xG 0.10 5–2 ▶
15:02 TOR Auston Matthews (25) Max Domi (17) · backhand xG 0.26 5–3 ▶
17:22 MIN Marcus Foligno (6)EN Vladimir Tarasenko (15), Nico Sturm (6) · backhand xG 0.89 6–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

MIN 58%Deserve to win42% TOR
MINTOR
4.65Expected goals2.93
6Goals (no shootout)3
2.46Expected goals, 5 on 52.31
73Shot attempts54
56Unblocked attempts41
39Shots on goal30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
8:24 TOR Goalie Goalie · Woll −2.4 goals saved
4 goals on 1.63 xG, 16 shots on goal
20:00 TOR Goalie change Goalie change · Hildeby in for Woll
The start of the 3rd; Woll had allowed 5 goals on 29 shots (2.76 xG)
3rd Period
2:00 MIN xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.19–0.14
In xG over 10 minutes, 12:00 of the 2nd to 2:00 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
16:46 TOR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Hildeby, down 5–3
With 3:14 left; MIN scored at 17:22 of the 3rd (6–3)

Shot map

MIN shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Max Domi: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 0:27) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:54) Steven Lorentz: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 2:31) Yakov Trenin: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 5:06) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:28) Easton Cowan: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:29) Brock Faber: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 7:53) Jared Spurgeon: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:24) Jake Middleton: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:27) Tyler Pitlick: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:34) Ben Jones: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 8:41) Jake Middleton: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:15) Vinnie Hinostroza: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 10:17) Vinnie Hinostroza: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:18) Hunter Haight: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:19) Kirill Kaprizov: tip-in, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:53) Ryan Hartman: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:56) Matias Maccelli: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:51) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:39) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:57) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:54) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:14) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:51) Yakov Trenin: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:14) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:53) Scott Laughton: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:52) Troy Stecher: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:29) Troy Stecher: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:56) Kirill Kaprizov: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 3:19) Jake McCabe: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:54) Tyler Pitlick: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:06) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:28) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:01) Kirill Kaprizov: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:10) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:56) Jake McCabe: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:03) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:50) John Tavares: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 9:00) Brock Faber: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:52) Calle Jarnkrok: bat, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:17) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:12) John Tavares: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 11:59) Scott Laughton: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:09) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:27) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:29) Brock Faber: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:32) Vinnie Hinostroza: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 14:02) Hunter Haight: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:44) Vinnie Hinostroza: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 14:46) Steven Lorentz: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 15:13) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:27) Ben Jones: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:12) Ben Jones: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:13) Marcus Foligno: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:31) Easton Cowan: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:53) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 18:06) Kirill Kaprizov: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 18:16) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 18:58) Kirill Kaprizov: poke, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:59) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:35) Danila Yurov: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:16) Jake Middleton: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 1:21) John Tavares: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:32) Troy Stecher: deflected, 5 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:45) Marcus Foligno: wrist, 109 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:57) Nicolas Roy: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 3:24) Morgan Rielly: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:01) Kirill Kaprizov: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:06) Jake Middleton: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:16) Kirill Kaprizov: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:21) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 4:51) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:00) Easton Cowan: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:23) Nicolas Roy: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.44 (P3 6:26) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:53) John Tavares: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:45) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 8:12) John Tavares: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 8:59) Nico Sturm: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:17) Brock Faber: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:37) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:47) Easton Cowan: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:32) Troy Stecher: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:42) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 141 ft, xG 0.32 (P3 16:48) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:55) Hunter Haight: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:17) Hunter Haight: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 19:20) Daemon Hunt: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:37) Vladimir Tarasenko: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 4:45) Ryan Hartman: GOAL, wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 10:29) John Tavares: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 18:24) Marcus Foligno: GOAL, tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:53) Vladimir Tarasenko: GOAL, wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 8:24) Marcus Foligno: GOAL, tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 19:14) Nick Robertson: GOAL, deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 6:27) Auston Matthews: GOAL, backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.26 (P3 15:02) Marcus Foligno: GOAL, backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.89 (P3 17:22)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Minnesota Wild

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Kirill Kaprizov 022 +1 110.62 1022:47
36 Mats Zuccarello 011 +1 70.22 0021:59
38 Ryan Hartman 112 +1 70.45 0121:52
91 Vladimir Tarasenko 213 +2 50.73 0116:15
13 Yakov Trenin 000 +1 30.13 9115:42
22 Danila Yurov 011 +2 10.00 0215:28
17 Marcus Foligno 303 +1 51.10 2014:13
78 Nico Sturm 011 0 20.01 3012:06
18 Vinnie Hinostroza 000 0 50.51 1011:13
37 Hunter Haight 000 -1 40.25 0009:59
18 Ben Jones 000 -1 30.21 1008:00
19 Tyler Pitlick 000 -1 20.02 3007:25
Defense
43 Quinn Hughes 022 +3 30.08 0226:33
7 Brock Faber 022 +4 50.16 0124:25
46 Jared Spurgeon 000 0 20.01 1220:28
55 Jake Middleton 000 +1 40.14 0219:47
5 David Jiricek 000 -2 20.00 0112:49
48 Daemon Hunt 000 -2 20.01 0012:45
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Filip Gustavsson 30327 .900 2.93 -0.07

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 112 -1 30.37 1119:38
63 Matias Maccelli 000 -2 40.13 0019:22
89 Matthew Knies 011 -1 00.00 1119:11
91 John Tavares 101 -2 70.64 1117:36
21 Scott Laughton 000 -1 30.04 2215:39
18 Steven Lorentz 000 -1 40.31 6015:04
11 Max Domi 011 -2 20.05 1114:04
53 Easton Cowan 011 +1 50.07 0212:43
14 Nick Robertson 101 +1 30.10 2012:42
10 Nicolas Roy 011 +1 20.58 1012:25
74 Bobby McMann 000 0 00.00 3012:23
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 0 20.13 2011:30
Defense
44 Morgan Rielly 000 0 70.19 0123:18
22 Jake McCabe 000 -1 30.09 0321:36
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 0 30.09 0119:32
25 Brandon Carlo 000 -2 10.00 0219:00
28 Troy Stecher 000 -1 50.16 0016:25
44 Simon Benoit 000 0 00.00 3013:50
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 29524 .828 2.76 -2.24
Dennis Hildeby 909 1.000 0.69 +0.69

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Minnesota Wild

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 Vladimir Tarasenko R +2.80 +2.20 +0.47 +0.22 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 16:15
17 Marcus Foligno L +2.56 +2.25 +0.72 -0.40 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:13
38 Ryan Hartman R +2.46 +1.45 +0.30 +0.70 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 21:52
7 Brock Faber D +2.39 +1.40 +0.11 +0.71 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 24:25
97 Kirill Kaprizov L +2.26 +1.10 +0.40 +0.78 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:47
36 Mats Zuccarello R +1.96 +0.70 +0.14 +0.97 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 21:59
43 Quinn Hughes D +1.93 +1.25 +0.05 +0.70 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 26:33
5 Jake Middleton D +1.40 0.00 +0.09 +1.21 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:47
22 Danila Yurov R +0.89 +0.55 0.00 +0.29 0.00 -0.05 +0.10 — 15:28
46 Jared Spurgeon D +0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.92 -0.30 0.00 +0.10 — 20:28
18 Vinnie Hinostroza C +0.22 0.00 +0.33 -0.10 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 11:13
13 Yakov Trenin C +0.09 0.00 +0.08 -0.03 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 15:42
78 Nico Sturm C +0.04 +0.55 +0.01 -0.59 0.00 +0.08 0.00 — 12:06
37 Hunter Haight C +0.04 0.00 +0.16 -0.09 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 9:59
32 Filip Gustavsson G -0.07 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.07 59:56
19 Tyler Pitlick C -0.26 0.00 +0.01 -0.42 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 7:25
39 Ben Jones C -0.26 0.00 +0.14 -0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:00
55 David Jiricek D -1.38 0.00 0.00 -1.43 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:49
48 Daemon Hunt D -1.50 0.00 +0.01 -1.49 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:45

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
55 Nicolas Roy C +2.31 +0.70 +0.37 +1.02 +0.15 +0.09 -0.02 — 12:25
89 Nick Robertson L +1.35 +0.75 +0.07 +0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:42
91 John Tavares C +1.33 +0.75 +0.41 -0.17 +0.30 -0.02 +0.05 — 17:36
53 Easton Cowan R +1.04 +0.55 +0.05 +0.53 -0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 12:43
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.84 0.00 +0.12 +0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 23:18
34 Auston Matthews C +0.83 +1.30 +0.24 -0.76 0.00 +0.04 +0.01 — 19:38
23 Matthew Knies L +0.72 +0.70 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:11
35 Dennis Hildeby G +0.69 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.69 19:24
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.53 0.00 +0.06 +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:32
11 Max Domi C +0.33 +0.70 +0.03 -0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:04
18 Steven Lorentz C -0.02 0.00 +0.20 -0.23 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 15:04
28 Troy Stecher D -0.03 0.00 +0.10 -0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 16:24
2 Simon Benoit D -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.02 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 13:50
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.13 0.00 +0.09 -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:31
63 Matias Maccelli L -0.20 0.00 +0.08 -0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:22
24 Scott Laughton C -0.21 0.00 +0.02 -0.40 +0.15 -0.08 +0.10 — 15:39
74 Bobby McMann C -0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:23
22 Jake McCabe D -0.69 0.00 +0.06 -0.90 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 21:36
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.94 0.00 0.00 -0.89 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 19:00
60 Joseph Woll G -2.24 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.24 40:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.