Minnesota Wild
Central Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 34 | 14 | 10 | 78 | 196 | 169 | +27 | 67.2% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Minnesota Wild are firmly in playoff territory with a 100.0% playoff probability and a projected finish north of 107 points, making their postseason spot essentially locked. The focus has shifted from qualifying to seeding, with an outside but real chance to challenge for the Central Division and a strong profile as a deep playoff run contender.
Record and Recent Performance
Minnesota sits at 34-14-10 through 58 games for 78 points and a strong 67.2% points percentage, backed by a healthy +27 goal differential with 196 goals for and 169 against. Their overall team strength rating of 65.9% is nearly elite, holding steady both at home (66.9%) and on the road (65.9%), and an excellent 85.0% recent form indicates they are playing some of their best hockey at the right time. This combination of consistency and current momentum explains why their playoff odds are maxed out and their projected total continues to climb.
The Competition
The Wild are currently second in the conference race behind Colorado, who lead with 83 points in 55 games and project to finish around 115.9 points, making catching the Avalanche for first place difficult but not impossible. Dallas is right on Minnesota’s heels with 77 points in 57 games and a nearly identical projected finish at 107.6 points, setting up a tight battle for second place and potential home-ice advantage. Below them, Vegas, Utah, Anaheim, and Seattle form a crowded middle tier projected in the mid-90s, but Minnesota’s cushion over the cutline is substantial enough that only a major collapse would drop them into wild-card danger.
Remaining Schedule
The Wild have 24 games left, split fairly evenly with 11 at home and 13 on the road, and their remaining opponents average a 53.1% strength rating, almost exactly league average. With an expected 29.3 points still to be gained, Minnesota is projected to comfortably clear the playoff cutoff of 90.6 points and finish around 107.3 points. The balanced and average-difficulty schedule suggests no major traps or gauntlets, meaning continued solid play should be enough to maintain or slightly improve their current standing.
Outlook
Minnesota’s playoff path is secure, and the real question is whether they can fend off Dallas and potentially apply pressure to Colorado for the division lead. If their recent form holds and goaltending and health remain stable, the Wild should enter the postseason as a dangerous, well-rounded team with legitimate conference and Stanley Cup upside rather than just a safe playoff qualifier.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 100.0% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 104–110 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 100.0% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 83 | 55 | 27 | 66.8% | 45.0% | 51.5% | 115.9 | 100.0% | |
| 2 | 78 | 58 | 24 | 65.9% | 85.0% | 53.1% | 107.3 | 100.0% | |
| 3 | 77 | 57 | 25 | 63.9% | 70.0% | 53.2% | 107.6 | 100.0% | |
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65.9% | 66.9% | 65.9% | 57.4% | 85.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | Kirill Kaprizov | L | 58 | 32 | 38 | 70 | +9 | 0 | 35 | 20 | 22:22 | |
| 12 | Matt Boldy | L | 54 | 32 | 30 | 62 | +14 | 0 | 40 | 33 | 20:50 | |
| 14 | Joel Eriksson Ek | C | 52 | 15 | 25 | 40 | +14 | 0 | 78 | 21 | 19:22 | |
| 7 | Brock Faber | D | 58 | 13 | 24 | 37 | +19 | 0 | 19 | 119 | 24:58 | |
| 90 | Marcus Johansson | L | 53 | 13 | 24 | 37 | +18 | 0 | 23 | 14 | 15:50 | |
| 43 | Quinn Hughes | D | 26 | 3 | 31 | 34 | +9 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 28:17 | |
| 36 | Mats Zuccarello | R | 38 | 9 | 24 | 33 | -3 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 18:50 | |
| 91 | Vladimir Tarasenko | R | 51 | 15 | 16 | 31 | -5 | 0 | 38 | 24 | 14:58 | |
| 38 | Ryan Hartman | R | 54 | 14 | 12 | 26 | +2 | 0 | 45 | 76 | 16:41 | |
| 22 | Danila Yurov | R | 51 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -2 | 0 | 35 | 33 | 13:13 | |
| 46 | Jared Spurgeon | D | 58 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -1 | 0 | 70 | 107 | 20:01 | |
| 13 | Yakov Trenin | C | 58 | 5 | 12 | 17 | +11 | 0 | 286 | 30 | 13:16 | |
| 25 | Jonas Brodin | D | 42 | 3 | 12 | 15 | +13 | 0 | 8 | 91 | 21:19 | |
| 24 | Zeev Buium → VAN | D | 31 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -9 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 18:27 | |
| 93 | Marco Rossi → VAN | C | 17 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -6 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 18:06 | |
| 5 | Jake Middleton | D | 51 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 75 | 17:51 | |
| 17 | Marcus Foligno | L | 46 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 0 | 145 | 38 | 13:01 | |
| 18 | Vinnie Hinostroza | C | 44 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 0 | 27 | 19 | 10:26 | |
| 78 | Nico Sturm | C | 35 | 3 | 6 | 9 | +1 | 0 | 35 | 15 | 11:10 | |
| 24 | Zach Bogosian | D | 25 | 1 | 4 | 5 | +8 | 0 | 21 | 23 | 14:55 | |
| 48 | Daemon Hunt | D | 26 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 36 | 11:56 | |
| 19 | Tyler Pitlick | C | 31 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 76 | 17 | 7:45 | |
| 39 | Ben Jones | C | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8:22 | |
| 26 | Matt Kiersted | D | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13:42 | |
| 55 | David Jiricek | D | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 11:42 | |
| 92 | Liam Ohgren → VAN | L | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 29 | 8 | 9:32 | |
| 37 | Hunter Haight | C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9:53 | |
| 82 | David Spacek | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10:45 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | @ NSH | 5 - 6 | W (OT/SO) |
| Feb 02 | vs MTL | 4 - 3 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 31 | @ EDM | 3 - 7 | W |
| Jan 29 | vs CGY | 4 - 1 | W |
| Jan 27 | vs CHI | 4 - 3 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 24 | vs FLA | 3 - 4 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 22 | vs DET | 4 - 3 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 20 | @ MTL | 4 - 3 | L |
| Jan 19 | @ TOR | 3 - 6 | W |
| Jan 17 | @ BUF | 4 - 5 | W (OT/SO) |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 21:00 | @ Colorado Avalanche | Away | 66.8% | 1.08 | COL (52%) |
| Feb 27, 21:00 | @ Utah Mammoth | Away | 59.6% | 1.08 | UTA (53%) |
| Mar 01, 17:00 | vs St. Louis Blues | Home | 35.1% | 1.49 | MIN (71%) |
| Mar 03, 21:30 | vs Tampa Bay Lightning | Home | 71.7% | 1.09 | TBL (52%) |
| Mar 06, 22:00 | @ Vegas Golden Knights | Away | 52.5% | 1.22 | MIN (56%) |
| Mar 08, 14:00 | @ Colorado Avalanche | Away | 66.8% | 1.08 | COL (52%) |
| Mar 10, 20:00 | vs Utah Mammoth | Home | 59.6% | 1.26 | MIN (57%) |
| Mar 12, 20:00 | vs Philadelphia Flyers | Home | 48.5% | 1.29 | MIN (59%) |
| Mar 14, 18:00 | vs New York Rangers | Home | 37.8% | 1.30 | MIN (60%) |
| Mar 15, 19:30 | vs Toronto Maple Leafs | Home | 49.8% | 1.31 | MIN (61%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 12.2 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.