| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 22 | |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 26 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 4:00 | Matthew Robertson (3) Mika Zibanejad (26), J.T. Miller (18) · slap xG 0.04 | 1–0 ▶ | |
| 11:31 | Mason McTavish (13) Pavel Mintyukov (7) · snap xG 0.16 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 4:03 | Artemi Panarin (19)PP Vincent Trocheck (19), J.T. Miller (19) · snap xG 0.14 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 8:29 | Jeffrey Viel (1) Ryan Poehling (13) · snap xG 0.33 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 18:02 | Alex Killorn (5)PP Jacob Trouba (13) · backhand xG 0.26 | 2–3 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 1:01 | Cutter Gauthier (21) Drew Helleson (8) · snap xG 0.15 | 2–4 ▶ | |
| 7:11 | Vladislav Gavrikov (8)PP Artemi Panarin (37), Vincent Trocheck (20) · slap xG 0.07 | 3–4 ▶ | |
| 19:24 | Cutter Gauthier (22)EN Jackson LaCombe (25) · snap xG 0.62 | 3–5 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| NYR | ANA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.73 | Expected goals | 3.82 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 5 |
| 1.69 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.17 |
| 53 | Shot attempts | 55 |
| 39 | Unblocked attempts | 40 |
| 22 | Shots on goal | 26 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 | ANA | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced NYR 1.23–0.19
In xG over 10 minutes, 18:30 of the 1st to 8:30 of the 2nd; goals 1–1 |
| 12:01 | ANA | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · ANA takes the lead, 60–40%
NYR had led since 3:00 of the 1st, by as much as 81% |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 18:36 | NYR | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Martin, down 4–3
With 1:24 left; ANA scored at 19:24 of the 3rd (3–5) |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 93 | Mika Zibanejad | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 0 | 23:39 |
| 10 | J.T. Miller | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 | 0.43 | 0 | 1 | 22:41 |
| 10 | Artemi Panarin | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 8 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 |
| 16 | Vincent Trocheck | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 6 | 0.37 | 3 | 1 | 19:50 |
| 94 | Gabe Perreault | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.05 | 3 | 0 | 16:31 |
| 13 | Alexis Lafrenière | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.35 | 2 | 0 | 14:43 |
| 42 | Noah Laba | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 |
| 50 | Will Cuylle | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 13:06 |
| 14 | Taylor Raddysh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 1 | 10:07 |
| 78 | Brennan Othmann | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 1 | 09:33 |
| 22 | Jonny Brodzinski | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 5 | 0 | 08:19 |
| 10 | Sam Carrick | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 07:32 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 44 | Vladislav Gavrikov | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 7 | 0.30 | 1 | 1 | 25:31 |
| 29 | Matthew Robertson | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 | 4 | 19:35 |
| 4 | Braden Schneider | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.02 | 1 | 2 | 18:31 |
| 60 | Scott Morrow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.02 | 1 | 1 | 17:34 |
| 17 | Will Borgen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 16:42 |
| 18 | Urho Vaakanainen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.11 | 1 | 1 | 16:17 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Martin | 25 | 4 | 21 | .840 | 3.05 | -0.95 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 64 | Mikael Granlund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 20:51 |
| 17 | Alex Killorn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 0 | 20:15 |
| 45 | Beckett Sennecke | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 0.57 | 3 | 0 | 18:25 |
| 61 | Cutter Gauthier | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 5 | 1.04 | 3 | 1 | 17:10 |
| 25 | Ryan Poehling | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.07 | 1 | 2 | 14:48 |
| 83 | Mason McTavish | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 0.67 | 1 | 2 | 14:20 |
| 25 | Jeffrey Viel | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 0.58 | 5 | 0 | 13:42 |
| 22 | Chris Kreider | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 |
| 42 | Tim Washe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | 2 | 0 | 12:15 |
| 22 | Ryan Strome | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 |
| 49 | Ross Johnston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 4 | 0 | 09:39 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 65 | Jacob Trouba | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.03 | 4 | 5 | 24:47 |
| 2 | Jackson LaCombe | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 23:28 |
| 98 | Pavel Mintyukov | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 1 | 19:36 |
| 6 | Radko Gudas | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 0.03 | 3 | 0 | 17:41 |
| 8 | Olen Zellweger | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 |
| 14 | Drew Helleson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0 | 15:17 |
| 3 | Ian Moore | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 09:53 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal | 22 | 3 | 19 | .864 | 2.73 | -0.27 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Vincent Trocheck C | +2.18 | +1.25 | +0.24 | +0.63 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.03 | — | 19:50 |
| 10 Artemi Panarin L | +1.91 | +1.45 | +0.16 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 21:15 |
| 44 Vladislav Gavrikov D | +0.55 | +0.75 | +0.19 | -0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 25:31 |
| 14 Taylor Raddysh R | +0.53 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 10:07 |
| 13 Alexis Lafrenière L | +0.48 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.40 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:43 |
| 29 Matthew Robertson D | +0.41 | +0.75 | +0.05 | -0.42 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.18 | — | 19:35 |
| 17 Will Borgen D | +0.38 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 16:42 |
| 22 Jonny Brodzinski C | +0.38 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 8:19 |
| 39 Sam Carrick C | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 7:32 |
| 78 Brennan Othmann L | +0.33 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.12 | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 9:33 |
| 8 J.T. Miller C | +0.21 | +1.10 | +0.28 | -1.17 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.01 | — | 22:41 |
| 60 Scott Morrow D | +0.08 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.13 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 17:34 |
| 18 Urho Vaakanainen D | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 16:17 |
| 50 Will Cuylle L | -0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 13:06 |
| 42 Noah Laba C | -0.22 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.21 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | — | 14:22 |
| 93 Mika Zibanejad C | -0.63 | +0.70 | +0.10 | -1.46 | 0.00 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 23:39 |
| 41 Spencer Martin G | -0.95 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.95 | 59:05 |
| 4 Braden Schneider D | -1.20 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 18:31 |
| 94 Gabe Perreault R | -1.32 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:31 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 Cutter Gauthier L | +3.63 | +1.50 | +0.68 | +1.26 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 17:10 |
| 28 Jeffrey Viel L | +1.81 | +0.75 | +0.38 | +0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:42 |
| 25 Ryan Poehling C | +1.76 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +1.07 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 14:48 |
| 14 Drew Helleson D | +1.59 | +0.70 | +0.10 | +0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 15:17 |
| 98 Pavel Mintyukov D | +1.18 | +0.70 | +0.11 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 19:36 |
| 23 Mason McTavish C | +1.03 | +0.75 | +0.44 | -0.33 | +0.15 | -0.03 | +0.06 | — | 14:20 |
| 17 Alex Killorn L | +0.99 | +0.75 | +0.22 | +0.04 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 20:15 |
| 45 Beckett Sennecke R | +0.84 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.65 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:25 |
| 51 Olen Zellweger D | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 17:09 |
| 2 Jackson LaCombe D | +0.49 | +0.70 | +0.04 | -0.04 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 23:28 |
| 7 Radko Gudas D | +0.46 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 17:41 |
| 65 Jacob Trouba D | +0.37 | +0.70 | +0.02 | -0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | — | 24:47 |
| 64 Mikael Granlund C | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.02 | — | 20:51 |
| 16 Ryan Strome C | +0.10 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.04 | — | 11:18 |
| 42 Tim Washe C | +0.03 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | — | 12:15 |
| 44 Ross Johnston L | -0.03 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.03 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 9:39 |
| 1 Lukas Dostal G | -0.27 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.27 | 60:00 |
| 20 Chris Kreider L | -0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 12:17 |
| 74 Ian Moore D | -0.52 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 9:53 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.