hockeystats.io

San Jose SharksSJS 1–4 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
San Jose SharksSJS 100 1 23
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 121 4 20

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
14:37 SJS Tyler Toffoli (14) William Eklund (20), Alexander Wennberg (24) · deflected xG 0.24 1–0 ▶
15:10 TBL Brandon Hagel (24) Anthony Cirelli (17), Nikita Kucherov (47) · tip-in xG 0.10 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:49 TBL Anthony Cirelli (13) Brandon Hagel (21), Nikita Kucherov (48) · poke xG 0.06 1–2 ▶
3:17 TBL Jake Guentzel (22) Dominic James (7), Gage Goncalves (10) · wrist xG 0.19 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
17:41 TBL Brandon Hagel (25)EN Jake Guentzel (29), Nikita Kucherov (49) · wrist xG 0.93 1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

SJS 22%Deserve to win78% TBL
SJSTBL
1.16Expected goals3.54
1Goals (no shootout)4
0.99Expected goals, 5 on 52.61
44Shot attempts65
27Unblocked attempts44
23Shots on goal20

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
11:00 TBL No shift No shift · Cirelli, 16:34 on the bench
No shift after 0:58 of the 3rd; 15 shifts (13:22) before that
16:13 SJS Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Askarov, down 3–1
With 3:47 left; TBL scored at 17:41 of the 3rd (1–4)

Shot map

SJS shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots
Yanni Gourde: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:57) Collin Graf: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 1:11) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:19) Dominic James: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:45) J.J. Moser: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:00) Pontus Holmberg: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:23) Dominic James: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 9:50) Dominic James: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 10:01) Dominic James: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:08) Dominic James: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:15) Dominic James: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:38) Timothy Liljegren: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:05) Timothy Liljegren: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:08) Mario Ferraro: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:20) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:42) Dmitry Orlov: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:53) Barclay Goodrow: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:08) Will Smith: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:17) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:28) Pavol Regenda: wrist, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:49) Dominic James: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:45) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:46) Yanni Gourde: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 1:30) Erik Cernak: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:37) Brandon Hagel: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:48) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:36) Pontus Holmberg: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:40) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:55) Barclay Goodrow: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:16) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:23) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:28) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:50) Dominic James: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:55) Timothy Liljegren: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:12) Mario Ferraro: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 11:00) Will Smith: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 13:21) John Klingberg: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:26) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:04) Declan Carlile: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:04) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:23) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:30) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:32) John Klingberg: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:48) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:32) Vincent Desharnais: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:35) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:47) Mario Ferraro: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:08) Macklin Celebrini: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 7:21) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 8:50) Declan Carlile: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:58) Nick Paul: bat, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 9:44) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:10) Darren Raddysh: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:14) John Klingberg: wrist, 163 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:45) Macklin Celebrini: backhand, 82 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:36) Jake Guentzel: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:27) Ryan Reaves: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:42) Zemgus Girgensons: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 13:35) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:50) Nick Paul: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:05) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:14) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 14:39) Nick Paul: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 15:26) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:13) Oliver Bjorkstrand: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 18:35) Nick Paul: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:56) Tyler Toffoli: GOAL, deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 14:37) Brandon Hagel: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 15:10) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, poke, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:49) Jake Guentzel: GOAL, wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 3:17) Brandon Hagel: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.93 (P3 17:41)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
21 Alexander Wennberg 011 -2 00.00 1221:11
27 William Eklund 011 -2 00.00 1120:14
71 Macklin Celebrini 000 -1 50.15 0219:00
2 Will Smith 000 -1 50.13 0017:21
73 Tyler Toffoli 101 -1 20.24 5216:54
51 Collin Graf 000 0 20.09 4015:56
77 Michael Misa 000 -1 10.00 0112:36
63 Zack Ostapchuk 000 0 20.00 4112:32
75 Ryan Reaves 000 0 10.08 3012:19
23 Barclay Goodrow 000 0 20.15 4212:13
84 Pavol Regenda 000 -1 10.00 0011:56
81 Adam Gaudette 000 -2 00.00 1010:27
Defense
3 John Klingberg 000 -1 60.07 0122:39
38 Mario Ferraro 000 0 40.15 0022:37
27 Timothy Liljegren 000 0 50.05 0121:15
9 Dmitry Orlov 000 0 30.02 3221:02
6 Sam Dickinson 000 -2 40.02 2015:07
73 Vincent Desharnais 000 -2 10.00 1314:09
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Yaroslav Askarov 19316 .842 2.61 -0.39

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
38 Brandon Hagel 213 +3 101.19 2218:50
86 Nikita Kucherov 033 +2 30.05 0018:00
93 Gage Goncalves 011 +1 00.00 1016:31
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 0 60.39 0116:03
59 Jake Guentzel 112 +2 40.31 0116:00
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 0 40.16 2115:34
37 Yanni Gourde 000 0 30.21 0014:38
17 Dominic James 011 +1 80.47 0014:15
20 Nick Paul 000 0 40.40 1013:24
71 Anthony Cirelli 112 +1 10.06 0013:22
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 0 40.11 0012:44
37 Jack Finley 000 -1 00.00 1010:21
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 000 +1 60.16 0323:59
90 J.J. Moser 000 +1 20.01 0122:44
24 Max Crozier 000 +2 20.00 1119:06
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 000 0 20.00 2119:06
81 Erik Cernak 000 0 20.01 2216:45
72 Declan Carlile 000 +2 40.02 1116:38
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 23122 .957 1.16 +0.16

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
73 Tyler Toffoli C +1.07 +0.75 +0.16 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:54
72 William Eklund L +0.63 +0.70 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:14
21 Alexander Wennberg C +0.34 +0.55 0.00 -0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 21:11
23 Barclay Goodrow C +0.01 0.00 +0.10 -0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 12:13
37 Timothy Liljegren D -0.18 0.00 +0.03 -0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:15
71 Macklin Celebrini C -0.18 0.00 +0.10 -0.45 0.00 +0.07 +0.10 — 19:00
2 Will Smith C -0.19 0.00 +0.09 -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:21
38 Mario Ferraro D -0.22 0.00 +0.09 -0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:37
63 Zack Ostapchuk C -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 — 12:32
3 John Klingberg D -0.34 0.00 +0.05 -0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:39
75 Ryan Reaves R -0.36 0.00 +0.05 -0.27 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 12:19
30 Yaroslav Askarov G -0.39 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.39 58:32
9 Dmitry Orlov D -0.63 0.00 +0.01 -0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:02
77 Michael Misa C -0.82 0.00 0.00 -0.87 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:36
51 Collin Graf R -0.91 0.00 +0.06 -0.95 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:56
5 Vincent Desharnais D -0.97 0.00 0.00 -1.14 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 14:09
84 Pavol Regenda L -1.22 0.00 0.00 -1.25 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 11:56
6 Sam Dickinson D -1.35 0.00 +0.01 -1.34 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:07
81 Adam Gaudette R -1.39 0.00 0.00 -1.37 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 10:27

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
38 Brandon Hagel L +3.88 +2.20 +0.77 +0.81 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 18:50
59 Jake Guentzel C +2.65 +1.45 +0.20 +0.95 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 15:55
86 Nikita Kucherov R +2.13 +1.65 +0.03 +0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:00
17 Dominic James C +2.01 +0.70 +0.31 +1.01 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 — 14:15
71 Anthony Cirelli C +1.60 +1.45 +0.04 +0.13 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 13:22
24 Max Crozier D +1.57 0.00 0.00 +1.54 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:06
67 Declan Carlile D +1.45 0.00 +0.01 +1.26 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 16:38
93 Gage Goncalves C +1.31 +0.55 0.00 +0.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:31
29 Pontus Holmberg R +0.96 0.00 +0.25 +0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:08
28 Zemgus Girgensons C +0.87 0.00 +0.10 +0.74 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 15:34
37 Yanni Gourde C +0.74 0.00 +0.14 +0.68 0.00 -0.05 -0.02 — 14:38
90 J.J. Moser D +0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:44
43 Darren Raddysh D +0.55 0.00 +0.10 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 23:59
20 Nick Paul L +0.39 0.00 +0.26 +0.14 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 13:24
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +0.33 0.00 +0.07 +0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:44
81 Erik Cernak D +0.32 0.00 +0.01 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:45
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 19:06
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G +0.16 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.16 60:00
62 Jack Finley C -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 10:21

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.