Buffalo SabresBUF 5–3 Final Nashville PredatorsNSH

Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	3	1	1	5	33
Nashville PredatorsNSH	0	2	1	3	34

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:11	BUF	Noah Ostlund (8) Konsta Helenius (1), Rasmus Dahlin (29) · wrist xG 0.14	1–0 ▶
11:45	BUF	Noah Ostlund (9) Konsta Helenius (2), Owen Power (12) · backhand xG 0.13	2–0 ▶
17:24	BUF	Konsta Helenius (1) Peyton Krebs (14) · wrist xG 0.06	3–0 ▶
2nd Period
4:20	BUF	Tage Thompson (26) Alex Tuch (24), Josh Doan (20) · snap xG 0.11	4–0 ▶
10:09	NSH	Ryan O'Reilly (17) Filip Forsberg (19), Brady Skjei (14) · wrist xG 0.16	4–1 ▶
11:54	NSH	Filip Forsberg (19) Ryan O'Reilly (29) · wrist xG 0.02	4–2 ▶
3rd Period
9:30	NSH	Ryan O'Reilly (18) Luke Evangelista (28), Filip Forsberg (20) · wrist xG 0.12	4–3 ▶
18:14	BUF	Peyton Krebs (5)EN Mattias Samuelsson (17) · wrist xG 0.46	5–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 33%Deserve to win67% NSH

BUF		NSH
2.66	Expected goals	3.20
5	Goals (no shootout)	3
2.00	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.93
47	Shot attempts	83
39	Unblocked attempts	63
33	Shots on goal	34

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
17:24	NSH	Goalie	Goalie · Saros −2.1 goals saved 3 goals on 0.88 xG, 12 shots on goal
2nd Period
4:20	NSH	Goalie change	Goalie change · Annunen in for Saros 4:20 of the 2nd; Saros had allowed 4 goals on 19 shots (1.26 xG)
3rd Period
0:50	NSH	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.35–0.01 In xG over 10 minutes, 14:20 of the 2nd to 4:20 of the 3rd; neither team scored
2:44	NSH	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · NSH takes the lead, 60–40% BUF had led since 7:18 of the 1st, by as much as 75%
13:40	BUF	Shortened bench	Shortened bench · 2 defensemen sat Bryson and Metsa: no shift after 3:34 of the 3rd
18:07	NSH	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Annunen, down 4–3 With 1:53 left; BUF scored at 18:14 of the 3rd (5–3)

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Ryan McLeod	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	0	0	19:30
17	Jason Zucker	0	0	0	-2	6	0.38	1	1	17:32
86	Noah Ostlund	2	0	2	+1	4	0.35	0	1	16:58
22	Jack Quinn	0	0	0	-1	8	0.44	0	1	16:32
89	Alex Tuch	0	1	1	+1	3	0.02	0	0	15:44
6	Zach Benson	0	0	0	+3	2	0.07	0	0	15:32
94	Konsta Helenius	1	2	3	+2	5	0.25	2	1	14:43
72	Tage Thompson	1	0	1	+1	2	0.11	0	0	13:33
91	Josh Doan	0	1	1	0	2	0.01	0	1	12:57
19	Peyton Krebs	1	1	2	+2	2	0.51	2	0	12:31
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	5	2	11:25
12	Jordan Greenway	0	0	0	0	3	0.16	2	0	11:02
Defense
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	5	3	28:02
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	0	2	25:53
24	Bowen Byram	0	0	0	0	4	0.13	0	0	23:59
25	Owen Power	0	1	1	0	3	0.12	0	3	23:25
78	Jacob Bryson	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	08:36
73	Zach Metsa	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	08:06

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Alex Lyon	34	3	31	.912	3.20	+0.20

Nashville Predators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
90	Ryan O'Reilly	2	1	3	+2	8	0.82	0	0	20:42
77	Luke Evangelista	0	1	1	0	9	0.50	1	0	20:35
9	Filip Forsberg	1	2	3	+1	17	0.51	1	1	19:38
91	Steven Stamkos	0	0	0	-2	3	0.05	1	0	18:06
81	Jonathan Marchessault	0	0	0	+1	4	0.01	3	0	13:49
71	Matthew Wood	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	1	13:33
56	Erik Haula	0	0	0	-2	4	0.21	3	0	13:28
47	Michael McCarron	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	3	0	13:28
22	Cole Smith	0	0	0	-1	4	0.34	5	0	13:21
9	Fedor Svechkov	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	1	0	13:19
58	Michael Bunting	0	0	0	-2	2	0.01	0	0	12:39
89	Ozzy Wiesblatt	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	0	11:24
Defense
59	Roman Josi	0	0	0	0	11	0.38	0	1	28:24
76	Brady Skjei	0	1	1	+1	6	0.17	0	2	26:15
41	Nicolas Hague	0	0	0	-2	4	0.08	1	1	20:09
3	Nick Blankenburg	0	0	0	-1	4	0.03	3	2	18:15
48	Nick Perbix	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	1	0	14:30
72	Justin Barron	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	0	0	08:22

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Juuse Saros	19	4	15	.789	1.26	-2.74
Justus Annunen	13	0	13	1.000	0.94	+0.94

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
94 Konsta Helenius C	+3.31	+2.15	+0.16	+0.97	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	14:43
86 Noah Ostlund C	+2.21	+1.50	+0.23	+0.50	0.00	-0.05	+0.03	—	16:58
19 Peyton Krebs C	+2.11	+1.45	+0.33	+0.39	0.00	-0.06	0.00	—	12:31
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+1.39	+0.70	0.00	+0.59	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	25:53
6 Zach Benson L	+0.98	0.00	+0.04	+0.96	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:32
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+0.93	+0.55	0.00	+0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	28:02
72 Tage Thompson C	+0.78	+0.75	+0.07	-0.07	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	13:33
25 Owen Power D	+0.50	+0.55	+0.07	-0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	23:25
89 Alex Tuch R	+0.45	+0.70	+0.02	-0.27	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	15:44
91 Josh Doan R	+0.31	+0.55	+0.01	-0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	12:57
12 Jordan Greenway L	+0.29	0.00	+0.11	+0.19	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	11:02
34 Alex Lyon G	+0.20	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.20	60:00
73 Zach Metsa D	+0.17	0.00	0.00	+0.07	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	8:06
4 Bowen Byram D	+0.15	0.00	+0.08	+0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	23:59
29 Beck Malenstyn L	+0.14	0.00	+0.06	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	+0.10	—	11:25
78 Jacob Bryson D	+0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	8:36
22 Jack Quinn R	+0.01	0.00	+0.28	-0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	16:32
17 Jason Zucker L	-0.36	0.00	+0.25	-0.49	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	17:32
71 Ryan McLeod C	-0.42	0.00	+0.02	-0.43	0.00	+0.05	-0.06	—	19:30

Nashville Predators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
90 Ryan O'Reilly C	+3.98	+2.20	+0.53	+1.20	0.00	-0.04	+0.08	—	20:42
9 Filip Forsberg L	+2.81	+2.00	+0.33	+0.42	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	19:38
77 Luke Evangelista R	+1.53	+0.70	+0.32	+0.51	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	20:35
76 Brady Skjei D	+1.16	+0.55	+0.11	+0.44	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	26:15
29 Justus Annunen G	+0.94	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.94	34:09
59 Roman Josi D	+0.55	0.00	+0.25	+0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	28:24
36 Cole Smith R	+0.15	0.00	+0.22	-0.09	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	13:21
41 Nicolas Hague D	+0.09	0.00	+0.05	+0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	20:09
71 Matthew Wood R	-0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.11	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	13:33
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt C	-0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:24
48 Nick Perbix D	-0.20	0.00	+0.01	-0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:30
47 Michael McCarron C	-0.21	0.00	+0.01	-0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:28
81 Jonathan Marchessault R	-0.21	0.00	+0.01	-0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:49
91 Steven Stamkos C	-0.24	0.00	+0.03	-0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:06
37 Nick Blankenburg D	-0.27	0.00	+0.02	-0.54	+0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	18:15
40 Fedor Svechkov C	-0.37	0.00	+0.02	-0.42	0.00	+0.04	-0.02	—	13:19
56 Erik Haula L	-0.73	0.00	+0.14	-0.89	0.00	+0.04	-0.02	—	13:28
20 Justin Barron D	-0.76	0.00	+0.02	-0.76	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	8:22
58 Michael Bunting L	-1.04	0.00	+0.01	-1.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:39
74 Juuse Saros G	-2.74	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.74	23:54

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.