hockeystats.io

Detroit Red WingsDET 2–1 Final/OT Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Detroit Red WingsDET 1001 2 41
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 1000 1 31

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:46 TOR Scott Laughton (7) Calle Jarnkrok (1), Steven Lorentz (10) · snap xG 0.25 0–1 ▶
19:42 DET Simon Edvinsson (6) Lucas Raymond (39), Dylan Larkin (21) · snap xG 0.19 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
3:08 DET Dylan Larkin (25) Moritz Seider (27) · wrist xG 0.22 2–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DET 37%Deserve to win63% TOR
DETTOR
3.43Expected goals4.28
2Goals (no shootout)1
1.85Expected goals, 5 on 52.49
77Shot attempts61
59Unblocked attempts48
41Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
19:00 TOR No shift No shift · Ekman-Larsson, 43:49 on the bench
No shift after 8:57 of the 1st; 5 shifts (1:50) before that
2nd Period
6:10 TOR Deserve to win Deserve to win · TOR takes the lead, 62–38%
DET had led since 7:36 of the 1st, by as much as 63%
9:50 TOR xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced DET 1.77–0.09
In xG over 10 minutes, 2:20 to 12:20 of the 2nd; neither team scored
10:47 DET Goalie Goalie · Gibson +2.1 goals saved
1 goal on 3.11 xG, 22 shots on goal
Overtime
1:34 TOR Goalie Goalie · Woll +2.0 goals saved
1 goal on 3.03 xG, 39 shots on goal

Shot map

DET shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:17) Dylan Larkin: backhand, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:40) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 0:51) Auston Matthews: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:15) Jake McCabe: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:19) J.T. Compher: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:42) Elmer Soderblom: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:32) Bobby McMann: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:21) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:23) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:26) Calle Jarnkrok: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 4:44) Michael Rasmussen: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 5:07) Albert Johansson: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:16) Troy Stecher: snap, 187 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:03) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 6:29) Dylan Larkin: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 6:31) Scott Laughton: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:48) Marco Kasper: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 7:34) J.T. Compher: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 7:36) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:52) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 9:06) Max Domi: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:18) Nick Robertson: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 10:24) Easton Cowan: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:32) Elmer Soderblom: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 11:05) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 12:09) Patrick Kane: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:23) Ben Chiarot: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:31) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:56) Nicolas Roy: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 14:31) John Tavares: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.35 (P1 16:46) James van Riemsdyk: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:31) Nicolas Roy: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 17:39) Alex DeBrincat: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 19:05) Albert Johansson: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 19:10) Troy Stecher: wrist, 77 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:56) Morgan Rielly: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 2:47) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:43) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:34) Matthew Knies: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 4:58) Auston Matthews: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 5:51) Jake McCabe: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:08) Matias Maccelli: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 6:10) John Tavares: tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 6:21) Scott Laughton: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:06) Moritz Seider: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:19) Nick Robertson: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:49) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:17) Morgan Rielly: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:01) Auston Matthews: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 10:19) Auston Matthews: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:27) Max Domi: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 10:47) Simon Benoit: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:53) Bobby McMann: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:02) Max Domi: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 12:16) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:24) Ben Chiarot: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:49) Scott Laughton: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 16:41) Auston Matthews: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:44) Dylan Larkin: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:58) Ben Chiarot: slap, 82 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:30) Jake McCabe: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:43) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:57) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:00) Moritz Seider: slap, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:07) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:15) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 0:24) Marco Kasper: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:38) Ben Chiarot: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:22) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:30) Troy Stecher: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:47) Moritz Seider: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:08) Mason Appleton: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:23) Moritz Seider: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:29) Elmer Soderblom: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:32) Ben Chiarot: wrist, 148 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:52) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:44) Marco Kasper: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:02) Andrew Copp: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:11) Patrick Kane: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:34) Axel Sandin-Pellikka: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:45) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:49) Axel Sandin-Pellikka: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:54) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:24) Moritz Seider: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:16) Auston Matthews: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:57) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:14) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:58) Ben Chiarot: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:27) Moritz Seider: wrist, 86 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:36) John Tavares: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 14:08) John Tavares: bat, 4 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 14:09) Michael Rasmussen: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:25) Nick Robertson: backhand, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:27) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:44) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:29) Michael Rasmussen: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:41) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 0:21) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 0:42) Andrew Copp: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 1:30) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.30 (OT 1:34) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 1:51) Marco Kasper: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 2:13) Auston Matthews: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.18 (OT 2:21) Scott Laughton: GOAL, snap, 13 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 4:46) Simon Edvinsson: GOAL, snap, 17 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 19:42) Dylan Larkin: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.22 (OT 3:08)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Detroit Red Wings

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Andrew Copp 000 0 20.14 1021:26
93 Alex DeBrincat 000 0 120.84 1018:45
88 Patrick Kane 000 0 40.04 0118:32
71 Dylan Larkin 112 +2 80.67 1118:31
23 Lucas Raymond 011 +2 40.15 1017:09
92 Marco Kasper 000 +1 50.27 1216:03
27 Michael Rasmussen 000 0 30.23 3113:37
37 J.T. Compher 000 -1 20.20 0113:20
22 Mason Appleton 000 0 20.02 2012:53
25 Elmer Soderblom 000 0 50.19 2012:11
21 James van Riemsdyk 000 -1 20.04 0011:48
58 Emmitt Finnie 000 -1 00.00 1008:58
Defense
53 Moritz Seider 011 +2 80.12 0128:32
77 Simon Edvinsson 101 +1 50.25 1227:35
8 Ben Chiarot 000 -1 60.04 0020:07
20 Albert Johansson 000 0 30.20 0216:44
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker 000 0 30.00 1014:38
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka 000 -1 30.02 0109:55
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
John Gibson 31130 .968 4.28 +3.28

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 000 -1 70.70 0122:39
63 Matias Maccelli 000 0 50.39 0019:56
91 John Tavares 000 -1 40.83 0117:30
89 Matthew Knies 000 0 20.16 1017:13
21 Scott Laughton 101 +1 40.55 2015:34
11 Max Domi 000 -1 50.33 0015:21
74 Bobby McMann 000 -1 20.04 2214:34
18 Steven Lorentz 011 +1 00.00 2114:09
14 Nick Robertson 000 0 40.18 2113:16
10 Nicolas Roy 000 0 20.22 2012:27
53 Easton Cowan 000 -1 30.05 0011:59
19 Calle Jarnkrok 011 +1 10.10 1010:55
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 000 -2 40.16 2128:09
28 Troy Stecher 000 +1 60.01 0325:13
44 Morgan Rielly 000 +1 80.41 1324:32
25 Brandon Carlo 000 -1 20.11 2320:25
44 Simon Benoit 000 0 10.01 5018:57
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 0 10.01 0001:50
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 41239 .951 3.43 +1.43

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Detroit Red Wings

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
36 John Gibson G +3.28 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +3.28 63:08
71 Dylan Larkin C +1.58 +1.30 +0.43 -0.15 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 19:17
20 Albert Johansson D +0.94 0.00 +0.13 +0.41 +0.30 0.00 +0.10 — 17:40
53 Moritz Seider D +0.94 +0.70 +0.08 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 27:46
77 Simon Edvinsson D +0.81 +0.75 +0.16 -0.06 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 26:45
93 Alex DeBrincat R +0.74 0.00 +0.55 +0.26 0.00 -0.01 -0.06 — 17:55
23 Lucas Raymond L +0.70 +0.70 +0.10 -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:55
27 Michael Rasmussen C +0.64 0.00 +0.15 +0.45 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 14:33
85 Elmer Soderblom L +0.52 0.00 +0.12 +0.41 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:07
18 Andrew Copp C +0.51 0.00 +0.09 +0.37 0.00 +0.07 -0.02 — 20:40
22 Mason Appleton C +0.44 0.00 +0.02 +0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:49
88 Patrick Kane R +0.34 0.00 +0.02 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:46
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.40 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:28
92 Marco Kasper C +0.22 0.00 +0.18 -0.07 0.00 +0.03 +0.08 — 16:53
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D -0.99 0.00 +0.02 -1.04 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 9:55
8 Ben Chiarot D -1.20 0.00 +0.02 -1.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:49
37 J.T. Compher L -1.22 0.00 +0.13 -1.37 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 13:20
58 Emmitt Finnie C -1.34 0.00 0.00 -1.32 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:58
21 James van Riemsdyk L -1.42 0.00 +0.03 -1.30 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:48

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
44 Morgan Rielly D +1.59 0.00 +0.27 +1.18 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 24:32
60 Joseph Woll G +1.43 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.43 63:08
24 Scott Laughton C +1.37 +0.75 +0.36 +0.12 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:19
91 John Tavares C +1.06 0.00 +0.54 +0.47 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 17:45
63 Matias Maccelli L +0.91 0.00 +0.26 +0.55 +0.15 -0.01 -0.04 — 19:56
19 Calle Jarnkrok C +0.70 +0.70 +0.07 +0.09 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 10:55
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.63 +0.55 0.00 +0.02 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 14:09
25 Brandon Carlo D +0.57 0.00 +0.07 +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 20:56
55 Nicolas Roy C +0.49 0.00 +0.14 +0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:27
89 Nick Robertson L +0.45 0.00 +0.12 +0.31 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 13:16
23 Matthew Knies L +0.44 0.00 +0.10 +0.37 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 17:28
34 Auston Matthews C +0.27 0.00 +0.46 -0.28 0.00 +0.02 +0.07 — 22:39
28 Troy Stecher D +0.26 0.00 +0.01 +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 25:28
22 Jake McCabe D +0.20 0.00 +0.10 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 28:09
53 Easton Cowan R +0.17 0.00 +0.03 +0.31 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 11:59
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.09 0.00 +0.01 +0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 1:50
74 Bobby McMann C +0.08 0.00 +0.03 -0.17 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 14:34
11 Max Domi C +0.07 0.00 +0.21 -0.14 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:21
2 Simon Benoit D -0.35 0.00 +0.01 -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:41

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.