Buffalo SabresBUF 4–2 Final Montréal CanadiensMTL

Thursday, January 22, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	2	1	1	4	17
Montréal CanadiensMTL	0	2	0	2	34

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:44	BUF	Jason Zucker (11) Jack Quinn (18), Ryan McLeod (21) · snap xG 0.13	1–0 ▶
14:58	BUF	Beck Malenstyn (4)SH Mattias Samuelsson (18) · backhand xG 0.34	2–0 ▶
2nd Period
2:25	BUF	Zach Benson (6) Konsta Helenius (3), Noah Ostlund (9) · snap xG 0.43	3–0 ▶
3:56	MTL	Cole Caufield (26) Nick Suzuki (41), Mike Matheson (19) · snap xG 0.09	3–1 ▶
11:20	MTL	Nick Suzuki (16) Zachary Bolduc (9) · snap xG 0.36	3–2 ▶
3rd Period
19:16	BUF	Peyton Krebs (6)EN Tage Thompson (26) · snap xG 0.47	4–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 35%Deserve to win65% MTL

BUF		MTL
3.48	Expected goals	3.41
4	Goals (no shootout)	2
1.98	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.75
44	Shot attempts	66
27	Unblocked attempts	46
17	Shots on goal	34

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
3:00	BUF	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced MTL 1.27–0.25 In xG over 10 minutes, 13:00 of the 1st to 3:00 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
12:08	MTL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · MTL takes the lead, 62–38% BUF had led since 16:30 of the 1st, by as much as 74%
12:30	MTL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.57–0.00 In xG over 10 minutes, 2:30 to 12:30 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
3rd Period
10:50	BUF	No shift	No shift · Bryson, 18:19 on the bench No shift after 12:56 of the 2nd; 10 shifts (6:17) before that
16:00	MTL	No shift	No shift · Struble, 13:01 on the bench No shift after 2:22 of the 3rd; 10 shifts (9:06) before that
18:15	MTL	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Montembeault, down 3–2 With 1:45 left; BUF scored at 19:16 of the 3rd (4–2)

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ MTL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Ryan McLeod	0	1	1	+1	4	0.55	1	0	20:53
89	Alex Tuch	0	0	0	0	4	0.29	3	3	19:46
72	Tage Thompson	0	1	1	-1	2	0.08	0	2	17:14
17	Jason Zucker	1	0	1	+1	2	0.18	1	1	17:00
22	Jack Quinn	0	1	1	+1	4	0.26	0	0	16:57
91	Josh Doan	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	1	0	15:26
86	Noah Ostlund	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	13:02
29	Beck Malenstyn	1	0	1	+1	1	0.34	6	2	11:41
12	Jordan Greenway	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	10:57
6	Zach Benson	1	0	1	+1	4	0.66	1	0	10:47
19	Peyton Krebs	1	0	1	0	1	0.47	4	0	10:38
94	Konsta Helenius	0	1	1	+1	2	0.19	1	1	09:36
Defense
24	Bowen Byram	0	0	0	+3	3	0.14	1	0	27:21
25	Owen Power	0	0	0	+2	2	0.00	1	2	26:25
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	1	1	-1	4	0.03	5	2	23:03
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	0	0	-2	7	0.12	1	2	22:53
7	Michael Kesselring	0	0	0	+1	2	0.16	0	1	12:04
78	Jacob Bryson	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	0	2	06:17

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	34	2	32	.941	3.41	+1.41

Montréal Canadiens

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
14	Nick Suzuki	1	1	2	0	4	0.55	2	1	20:14
20	Juraj Slafkovský	0	0	0	-1	6	0.14	1	0	18:50
13	Cole Caufield	1	0	1	0	2	0.11	0	0	17:56
93	Ivan Demidov	0	0	0	-1	4	0.18	3	1	17:44
91	Oliver Kapanen	0	0	0	-1	4	0.18	0	3	15:54
77	Kirby Dach	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	2	1	15:25
76	Zachary Bolduc	0	1	1	-1	4	0.47	4	2	14:18
17	Josh Anderson	0	0	0	-1	4	0.36	2	0	13:21
24	Phillip Danault	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	1	1	13:20
7	Brendan Gallagher	0	0	0	-1	4	0.23	1	0	13:09
71	Jake Evans	0	0	0	0	3	0.56	1	0	11:25
90	Joseph Veleno	0	0	0	0	3	0.05	4	0	10:02
Defense
48	Lane Hutson	0	0	0	-3	6	0.13	0	0	24:14
8	Mike Matheson	0	1	1	+1	6	0.21	1	1	23:53
53	Noah Dobson	0	0	0	+1	6	0.16	2	3	23:26
45	Alexandre Carrier	0	0	0	0	4	0.07	0	1	18:53
21	Kaiden Guhle	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	2	2	14:17
3	Jayden Struble	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	2	0	09:06

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Samuel Montembeault	16	3	13	.813	2.51	-0.49

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
6 Zach Benson L	+2.09	+0.75	+0.43	+0.92	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:47
94 Konsta Helenius C	+1.89	+0.70	+0.13	+1.04	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	9:36
17 Jason Zucker L	+1.46	+0.75	+0.12	+0.57	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	17:00
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G	+1.41	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.41	60:00
71 Ryan McLeod C	+1.38	+0.55	+0.36	+0.48	0.00	-0.03	+0.02	—	20:53
22 Jack Quinn R	+1.11	+0.70	+0.17	+0.24	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:57
86 Noah Ostlund C	+1.07	+0.55	0.00	+0.70	-0.15	-0.03	0.00	—	13:02
8 Michael Kesselring D	+0.97	0.00	+0.11	+0.96	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	12:04
78 Jacob Bryson D	+0.79	0.00	0.00	+0.69	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	6:17
29 Beck Malenstyn L	+0.56	+0.75	+0.22	-0.51	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	11:41
25 Owen Power D	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	26:25
19 Peyton Krebs C	-0.20	+0.75	+0.31	-1.27	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	10:38
12 Jordan Greenway L	-0.51	0.00	0.00	-0.51	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:57
4 Bowen Byram D	-0.57	0.00	+0.09	-0.64	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	27:21
89 Alex Tuch R	-0.57	0.00	+0.19	-1.07	+0.15	-0.01	+0.17	—	19:46
72 Tage Thompson C	-0.74	+0.70	+0.05	-1.51	0.00	-0.08	+0.10	—	17:14
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	-0.75	+0.70	+0.02	-1.57	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	23:03
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	-0.90	0.00	+0.08	-1.06	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	22:53
91 Josh Doan R	-1.54	0.00	0.00	-1.54	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:26

Montréal Canadiens

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
8 Mike Matheson D	+2.47	+0.55	+0.14	+1.73	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	23:53
14 Nick Suzuki C	+2.45	+1.45	+0.36	+0.60	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	20:14
76 Zachary Bolduc R	+2.15	+0.70	+0.31	+1.23	-0.15	0.00	+0.06	—	14:18
53 Noah Dobson D	+1.80	0.00	+0.10	+1.55	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	23:26
13 Cole Caufield R	+1.32	+0.75	+0.07	+0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:56
71 Jake Evans C	+0.63	0.00	+0.37	+0.08	+0.15	+0.04	0.00	—	11:25
20 Juraj Slafkovský L	+0.58	0.00	+0.09	+0.38	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	18:50
91 Oliver Kapanen C	+0.56	0.00	+0.12	+0.28	0.00	+0.03	+0.13	—	15:54
93 Ivan Demidov R	+0.53	0.00	+0.12	+0.38	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	17:44
21 Kaiden Guhle D	+0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.06	+0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	14:17
90 Joseph Veleno C	+0.27	0.00	+0.03	+0.22	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	10:02
45 Alexandre Carrier D	+0.15	0.00	+0.04	+0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:53
17 Josh Anderson R	+0.06	0.00	+0.23	-0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:21
11 Brendan Gallagher R	-0.10	0.00	+0.15	-0.27	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	13:09
77 Kirby Dach C	-0.23	0.00	0.00	-0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	15:25
24 Phillip Danault C	-0.37	0.00	0.00	-0.40	0.00	+0.06	-0.03	—	13:20
35 Samuel Montembeault G	-0.49	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.49	58:33
47 Jayden Struble D	-0.81	0.00	0.00	-0.81	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:06
48 Lane Hutson D	-0.97	0.00	+0.09	-0.90	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	24:14

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.