Thursday, January 22, 2026
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
CHI 28%Deserve to win 72% CAR
CHI CAR
2.56 Expected goals 3.94
3 Goals (no shootout) 3
1.45 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.79
38 Shot attempts 71
32 Unblocked attempts 53
22 Shots on goal 31
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
2nd Period
2:40
CAR
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced CHI 1.21–0.02
In xG over 10 minutes, 13:00 of the 1st to 3:00 of the 2nd; neither team scored
Shot map
CHI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → CAR shoots
Jaccob Slavin: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:40)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:25)
Jackson Blake: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 2:02)
Taylor Hall: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.33 (P1 2:06)
Logan Stankoven: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 2:07)
Jesperi Kotkaniemi: wrist, 83 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:08)
Wyatt Kaiser: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:49)
Nick Foligno: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:15)
Seth Jarvis: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:27)
Jalen Chatfield: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:06)
Andrei Svechnikov: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 9:28)
Ilya Mikheyev: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 11:10)
Sebastian Aho: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:37)
Jaccob Slavin: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:59)
Nikolaj Ehlers: deflected, 12 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 14:51)
Louis Crevier: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:37)
Logan Stankoven: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:24)
Jordan Staal: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 17:52)
Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:48)
K'Andre Miller: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:53)
Sean Walker: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:59)
Mark Jankowski: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:07)
William Carrier: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:18)
Jordan Staal: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 0:18)
Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:41)
Alexander Nikishin: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:46)
Alexander Nikishin: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:44)
Logan Stankoven: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 2:23)
Jackson Blake: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 2:31)
Logan Stankoven: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 2:49)
K'Andre Miller: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:51)
Frank Nazar: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:01)
Matt Grzelcyk: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:22)
Andre Burakovsky: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:26)
Joel Nystrom: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:16)
K'Andre Miller: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:32)
Frank Nazar: tip-in, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:49)
Taylor Hall: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:40)
Nick Lardis: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:09)
Jesperi Kotkaniemi: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:09)
William Carrier: wrist, 145 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:37)
Ryan Greene: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:14)
Sean Walker: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:30)
Taylor Hall: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:46)
Seth Jarvis: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 14:33)
Sebastian Aho: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:34)
Sebastian Aho: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:43)
Connor Bedard: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:23)
Frank Nazar: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:42)
Sebastian Aho: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:36)
Jordan Martinook: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:10)
Connor Bedard: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 0:35)
Seth Jarvis: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 0:50)
Ryan Donato: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 0:56)
Andrei Svechnikov: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:20)
Connor Bedard: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:45)
Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:57)
Sebastian Aho: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 5:25)
Taylor Hall: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 6:24)
Wyatt Kaiser: wrist, 158 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:31)
Louis Crevier: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:41)
Frank Nazar: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:43)
Matt Grzelcyk: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:29)
Oliver Moore: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 9:44)
Oliver Moore: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:45)
Frank Nazar: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 11:09)
Sean Walker: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:28)
Connor Bedard: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:53)
Jordan Martinook: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:12)
Taylor Hall: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:54)
Sebastian Aho: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 15:06)
William Carrier: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 16:43)
Louis Crevier: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:22)
Frank Nazar: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:09)
Seth Jarvis: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:59)
Wyatt Kaiser: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (OT 2:16)
Frank Nazar: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 3:12)
Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.16 (OT 3:51)
Oliver Moore: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.27 (OT 3:59)
Ilya Mikheyev: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.37 (P1 11:12)
Joel Nystrom: GOAL, snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 12:50)
Nick Lardis: GOAL, snap, 12 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 4:35)
Jordan Staal: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:16)
Connor Murphy: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 13:38)
Jackson Blake: GOAL, snap, 4 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 14:20)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Chicago Blackhawks
Carolina Hurricanes
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Chicago Blackhawks
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
95 Ilya Mikheyev R
+1.67
+1.30
+0.32
-0.04
0.00
0.00
+0.09
—
18:35
30 Spencer Knight G
+0.94
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.94
65:00
59 Tyler Bertuzzi L
+0.47
+0.70
0.00
-0.09
-0.15
-0.02
+0.03
—
18:46
91 Frank Nazar C
+0.23
0.00
+0.29
-0.05
0.00
+0.03
-0.04
—
18:30
76 Nick Lardis L
+0.21
+0.75
+0.16
-0.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
11:30
84 Landon Slaggert L
+0.18
0.00
0.00
-0.02
+0.15
0.00
+0.05
—
12:22
5 Connor Murphy D
+0.04
+0.75
+0.13
-0.87
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
22:17
17 Nick Foligno L
-0.05
0.00
+0.04
-0.10
0.00
-0.08
+0.10
—
10:06
28 Andre Burakovsky L
-0.09
0.00
+0.03
-0.19
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
18:13
46 Louis Crevier D
-0.11
0.00
+0.04
-0.31
0.00
0.00
+0.16
—
22:21
34 Colton Dach C
-0.16
0.00
0.00
-0.18
0.00
-0.01
+0.03
—
10:11
98 Connor Bedard C
-0.19
0.00
+0.15
-0.36
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
20:49
44 Wyatt Kaiser D
-0.32
0.00
+0.09
-0.43
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
22:40
11 Oliver Moore C
-0.50
+0.55
+0.30
-1.17
-0.15
-0.01
-0.02
—
12:51
8 Ryan Donato C
-0.53
+0.70
+0.05
-1.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
10:49
55 Artyom Levshunov D
-0.57
0.00
0.00
-0.44
-0.15
0.00
+0.02
—
16:37
72 Alex Vlasic D
-0.64
0.00
0.00
-0.45
-0.15
0.00
-0.04
—
25:37
20 Ryan Greene C
-0.65
0.00
+0.05
-0.67
0.00
-0.09
+0.07
—
18:49
48 Matt Grzelcyk D
-0.86
0.00
+0.01
-0.72
-0.15
0.00
0.00
—
13:57
Carolina Hurricanes
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.