Thursday, January 22, 2026
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
PIT 65%Deserve to win 35% EDM
PIT EDM
3.45 Expected goals 2.54
6 Goals (no shootout) 2
2.56 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.04
50 Shot attempts 57
40 Unblocked attempts 45
23 Shots on goal 32
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
1st Period
2:57
EDM
Goalie
Goalie · Jarry −2.5 goals saved
3 goals on 0.53 xG, 4 shots on goal
Shot map
PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → EDM shoots
Mattias Ekholm: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:14)
Mattias Ekholm: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:29)
Isaac Howard: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 0:36)
Noel Acciari: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 0:50)
Vasily Podkolzin: wrist, 78 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:02)
Vasily Podkolzin: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:07)
Noel Acciari: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:23)
Evan Bouchard: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:31)
Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:24)
Connor Dewar: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 7:02)
Zach Hyman: bat, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 7:29)
Zach Hyman: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:38)
Zach Hyman: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:13)
Justin Brazeau: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 10:14)
Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:37)
Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:01)
Bryan Rust: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 11:14)
Ryan Shea: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:48)
Connor McDavid: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:21)
Evan Bouchard: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 13:31)
Blake Lizotte: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:12)
Rickard Rakell: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 15:24)
Darnell Nurse: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:57)
Connor Dewar: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 17:37)
Zach Hyman: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 19:07)
Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:29)
Zach Hyman: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 19:44)
Andrew Mangiapane: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:51)
Darnell Nurse: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:20)
Ryan Shea: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:55)
Justin Brazeau: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:18)
Evgeni Malkin: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 4:53)
Rickard Rakell: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 5:41)
Blake Lizotte: deflected, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:57)
Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:14)
Tommy Novak: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 8:52)
Egor Chinakhov: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:18)
Evgeni Malkin: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:22)
Tommy Novak: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:32)
Mattias Ekholm: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:40)
Isaac Howard: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 11:35)
Evan Bouchard: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:46)
Mattias Ekholm: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:08)
Andrew Mangiapane: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 14:54)
Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:26)
Jake Walman: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:47)
Leon Draisaitl: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:06)
Bryan Rust: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 17:28)
Evan Bouchard: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:45)
Leon Draisaitl: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 18:33)
Connor Dewar: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 19:00)
Sidney Crosby: deflected, 77 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:43)
Jack Roslovic: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:55)
Vasily Podkolzin: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:34)
Andrew Mangiapane: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:03)
Isaac Howard: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:50)
Anthony Mantha: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 2:02)
Spencer Stastney: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:23)
Connor Dewar: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:59)
Tommy Novak: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:38)
Mattias Ekholm: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:05)
Trent Frederic: backhand, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:00)
Spencer Stastney: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:31)
Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:32)
Evgeni Malkin: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:21)
Isaac Howard: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:52)
Curtis Lazar: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 10:37)
Blake Lizotte: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:22)
Erik Karlsson: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:03)
Trent Frederic: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:36)
Mattias Janmark: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:38)
Sidney Crosby: deflected, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 16:50)
Brett Kulak: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:59)
Connor Clifton: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:00)
Mattias Ekholm: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:22)
Evan Bouchard: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:00)
Jake Walman: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:45)
Anthony Mantha: GOAL, tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 2:20)
Anthony Mantha: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 2:42)
Sidney Crosby: GOAL, tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:57)
Jake Walman: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:19)
Rickard Rakell: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 12:29)
Evgeni Malkin: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 14:27)
Egor Chinakhov: GOAL, wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:50)
Matt Savoie: GOAL, wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:57)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Pittsburgh Penguins
Edmonton Oilers
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
39 Anthony Mantha R
+2.52
+1.50
+0.29
+0.73
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
13:43
71 Evgeni Malkin C
+2.37
+1.45
+0.29
+0.67
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
19:02
16 Justin Brazeau R
+2.37
+1.40
+0.13
+0.88
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
13:07
5 Ryan Shea D
+1.48
+0.70
+0.06
+0.60
0.00
0.00
+0.12
—
18:19
18 Tommy Novak C
+1.32
+0.70
+0.20
+0.43
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
13:58
3 Jack St. Ivany D
+1.24
+1.10
0.00
+0.06
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
18:59
59 Egor Chinakhov R
+1.18
+0.75
+0.08
+0.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
12:04
81 Ben Kindel C
+1.08
0.00
0.00
+1.06
0.00
-0.02
+0.04
—
14:31
75 Connor Clifton D
+0.86
+0.55
+0.02
+0.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
19:56
65 Erik Karlsson D
+0.85
0.00
+0.01
+0.70
+0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
19:58
19 Connor Dewar C
+0.81
0.00
+0.32
+0.44
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
15:17
67 Rickard Rakell R
+0.77
+0.75
+0.26
-0.22
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
16:13
28 Parker Wotherspoon D
+0.66
0.00
0.00
+0.62
0.00
0.00
+0.04
—
19:13
77 Brett Kulak D
+0.62
+0.55
+0.01
+0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
21:15
87 Sidney Crosby C
+0.57
+0.75
+0.13
-0.16
-0.15
0.00
0.00
—
17:03
37 Arturs Silovs G
+0.54
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.54
59:26
17 Bryan Rust R
+0.32
+0.55
+0.21
-0.48
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
16:01
55 Noel Acciari C
+0.21
0.00
+0.14
+0.10
0.00
-0.04
0.00
—
14:07
46 Blake Lizotte C
-0.19
0.00
+0.09
-0.30
0.00
+0.02
0.00
—
13:48
Edmonton Oilers
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
2 Evan Bouchard D
+0.48
+0.70
+0.22
-0.47
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
24:48
14 Mattias Ekholm D
+0.40
+0.55
+0.09
-0.22
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
20:07
13 Mattias Janmark C
+0.40
+0.70
0.00
-0.34
0.00
-0.01
+0.05
—
11:40
22 Matt Savoie C
+0.38
+0.75
+0.03
-0.36
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
13:11
96 Jake Walman D
+0.35
+0.75
+0.07
-0.48
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
17:20
29 Leon Draisaitl C
+0.30
0.00
+0.27
+0.07
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
19:17
88 Andrew Mangiapane L
+0.19
0.00
+0.17
+0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
10:53
53 Isaac Howard L
+0.12
0.00
+0.21
-0.14
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
13:46
20 Curtis Lazar C
+0.09
0.00
+0.12
-0.11
0.00
+0.03
+0.05
—
9:39
18 Zach Hyman L
+0.02
0.00
+0.33
-0.31
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
18:27
24 Spencer Stastney D
-0.12
0.00
+0.03
-0.07
-0.15
0.00
+0.08
—
14:51
92 Vasily Podkolzin R
-0.17
0.00
+0.02
-0.15
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
—
14:25
49 Ty Emberson D
-0.26
0.00
0.00
-0.33
0.00
0.00
+0.07
—
19:11
97 Connor McDavid C
-0.36
0.00
+0.05
-0.41
0.00
+0.01
0.00
—
20:56
10 Trent Frederic C
-0.39
0.00
+0.02
-0.43
0.00
+0.01
+0.01
—
11:19
28 Jack Roslovic C
-0.65
0.00
+0.02
-0.71
0.00
+0.03
+0.01
—
16:22
25 Darnell Nurse D
-0.72
0.00
+0.01
-0.71
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
21:13
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C
-0.72
0.00
0.00
-0.71
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
18:35
35 Tristan Jarry G
-2.55
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-2.55
60:00
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.