hockeystats.io

St. Louis BluesSTL 2–3 Final Dallas StarsDAL

Friday, January 23, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL 110 2 22
Dallas StarsDAL 111 3 19

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:41 DAL Wyatt Johnston (27)PP Miro Heiskanen (33), Roope Hintz (25) · snap xG 0.33 0–1 ▶
11:30 STL Dalibor Dvorsky (8)PP Pavel Buchnevich (18), Jordan Kyrou (13) · slap xG 0.10 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:04 STL Pavel Buchnevich (9) Jake Neighbours (9), Cam Fowler (16) · slap xG 0.13 2–1 ▶
7:44 DAL Matt Duchene (5)PP Wyatt Johnston (29), Jason Robertson (30) · snap xG 0.15 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
19:00 DAL Jason Robertson (30) Roope Hintz (26) · snap xG 0.15 2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 54%Deserve to win46% DAL
STLDAL
2.17Expected goals2.05
2Goals (no shootout)3
1.78Expected goals, 5 on 51.05
45Shot attempts43
29Unblocked attempts31
22Shots on goal19

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:00 DAL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced STL 1.01–0.01
In xG over 10 minutes, the start of the 1st to 10:00 of the 1st; goals 1–0
3rd Period
7:00 DAL No shift No shift · Lyubushkin, 20:05 on the bench
No shift after 10:10 of the 2nd; 9 shifts (7:07) before that
19:00 STL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Binnington, down 3–2
With 1:00 left; DAL scored at 19:00 of the 3rd (2–3)

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DAL shoots
Mavrik Bourque: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:11) Esa Lindell: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:17) Sam Steel: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 0:26) Wyatt Johnston: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 0:34) Jason Robertson: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 1:49) Kyle Capobianco: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:30) Roope Hintz: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 5:06) Wyatt Johnston: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 5:39) Sam Steel: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 7:15) Cam Fowler: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:57) Sam Steel: wrist, 178 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:52) Colton Parayko: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:55) Colton Parayko: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:00) Thomas Harley: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:30) Cam Fowler: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:24) Philip Broberg: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:09) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:10) Jason Robertson: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:07) Nils Lundkvist: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:04) Philip Broberg: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:54) Otto Stenberg: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 2:22) Nick Bjugstad: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 2:44) Tyler Tucker: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 4:21) Brayden Schenn: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 5:04) Brayden Schenn: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 8:27) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:56) Justin Faulk: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 9:58) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:11) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 13:08) Nils Lundkvist: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:20) Nils Lundkvist: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:36) Esa Lindell: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:53) Mikko Rantanen: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 3:02) Miro Heiskanen: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:56) Radek Faksa: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:00) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:35) Colton Parayko: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:15) Tyler Tucker: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:35) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 7:52) Brayden Schenn: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 10:00) Roope Hintz: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 10:19) Otto Stenberg: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 11:36) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:43) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 126 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:22) Jason Robertson: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:35) Justin Hryckowian: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:23) Jake Neighbours: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:40) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:02) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:21) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:27) Philip Broberg: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:01) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 17:03) Pavel Buchnevich: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:33) Justin Faulk: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:48) Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 157 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:50) Wyatt Johnston: GOAL, snap, 12 ft, xG 0.33 (P1 5:41) Dalibor Dvorsky: GOAL, slap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 11:30) Pavel Buchnevich: GOAL, slap, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 4:04) Matt Duchene: GOAL, snap, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 7:44) Jason Robertson: GOAL, snap, 19 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 19:00)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Pavel Buchnevich 112 +1 40.29 1019:42
63 Jake Neighbours 011 +1 20.05 0017:19
10 Brayden Schenn 000 0 40.45 0116:23
25 Jordan Kyrou 011 +1 50.16 0015:49
28 Otto Stenberg 000 0 20.22 3115:45
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 000 0 30.12 1115:36
29 Jonatan Berggren 000 -1 10.00 0015:16
72 Nick Bjugstad 000 0 20.17 3013:21
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 101 -1 30.13 1013:21
21 Robby Fabbri 000 0 00.00 2112:00
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 0 00.00 1111:55
21 Mathieu Joseph 000 -1 00.00 2011:29
Defense
6 Philip Broberg 000 -1 30.08 3023:50
55 Colton Parayko 000 -1 50.08 2321:53
72 Justin Faulk 000 0 20.23 2020:13
17 Cam Fowler 011 +1 30.03 0119:32
23 Logan Mailloux 000 0 10.00 1114:48
75 Tyler Tucker 000 +1 50.17 4014:36
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jordan Binnington 19316 .842 1.97 -1.03

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
21 Jason Robertson 112 +1 60.37 1122:54
96 Mikko Rantanen 000 +1 30.17 0022:28
24 Roope Hintz 022 +1 30.19 4120:12
53 Wyatt Johnston 112 -1 40.67 0016:17
18 Sam Steel 000 -1 30.28 3015:57
22 Mavrik Bourque 000 0 10.02 0013:54
95 Matt Duchene 101 -1 30.15 0013:03
12 Radek Faksa 000 0 10.01 2112:12
49 Justin Hryckowian 000 0 10.01 2112:04
14 Jamie Benn 000 0 00.00 1011:22
10 Oskar Bäck 000 0 00.00 0011:11
15 Colin Blackwell 000 0 00.00 1010:38
Defense
4 Miro Heiskanen 011 0 50.10 1127:00
55 Thomas Harley 000 +1 30.03 0226:02
23 Esa Lindell 000 -1 40.03 0522:16
5 Nils Lundkvist 000 0 40.02 1119:16
20 Kyle Capobianco 000 0 20.01 0110:50
46 Ilya Lyubushkin 000 0 00.00 0207:07
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Oettinger 22220 .909 2.17 +0.17

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +2.38 +1.45 +0.19 +0.75 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 19:42
63 Jake Neighbours L +1.41 +0.70 +0.03 +0.53 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:19
17 Cam Fowler D +1.38 +0.55 +0.02 +0.61 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 19:32
25 Jordan Kyrou R +1.18 +0.55 +0.10 +0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:49
10 Brayden Schenn C +0.79 0.00 +0.29 +0.41 0.00 +0.02 +0.07 — 16:23
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R +0.70 0.00 +0.08 +0.71 -0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 15:36
28 Otto Stenberg C +0.66 0.00 +0.14 +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:45
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R +0.64 +0.75 +0.09 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 0.00 — 13:21
75 Tyler Tucker D +0.53 0.00 +0.11 +0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:36
72 Justin Faulk D +0.45 0.00 +0.15 +0.43 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 20:13
23 Logan Mailloux D +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:48
29 Jonatan Berggren R +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:16
6 Philip Broberg D +0.15 0.00 +0.05 +0.21 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 23:50
71 Mathieu Joseph R -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:29
13 Alexey Toropchenko R -0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 11:55
77 Nick Bjugstad C -0.25 0.00 +0.11 -0.21 0.00 -0.09 -0.06 — 13:21
55 Colton Parayko D -0.42 0.00 +0.05 -0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 21:53
9 Robby Fabbri C -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.39 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 12:00
50 Jordan Binnington G -1.03 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.03 59:00

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
24 Roope Hintz C +2.54 +1.25 +0.12 +0.63 +0.45 +0.06 +0.03 — 20:12
21 Jason Robertson L +2.19 +1.30 +0.24 +0.30 +0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 22:54
53 Wyatt Johnston C +1.43 +1.45 +0.44 -0.30 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 16:21
4 Miro Heiskanen D +1.07 +0.70 +0.06 +0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 27:00
96 Mikko Rantanen R +0.55 0.00 +0.11 +0.49 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 22:28
95 Matt Duchene C +0.27 +0.75 +0.10 -0.57 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 12:59
29 Jake Oettinger G +0.17 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.17 59:48
20 Kyle Capobianco D +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 10:50
23 Esa Lindell D +0.03 0.00 +0.02 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.27 — 22:16
10 Oskar Bäck C -0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:11
49 Justin Hryckowian C -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.28 0.00 +0.03 +0.07 — 12:04
18 Sam Steel C -0.21 0.00 +0.18 -0.41 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 15:57
5 Nils Lundkvist D -0.31 0.00 +0.02 -0.20 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 19:16
15 Colin Blackwell C -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.41 0.00 +0.02 +0.02 — 10:38
22 Mavrik Bourque C -0.39 0.00 +0.01 -0.37 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 13:54
12 Radek Faksa C -0.53 0.00 +0.01 -0.60 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 12:12
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D -0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 7:07
14 Jamie Benn L -0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.56 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:22
55 Thomas Harley D -0.77 0.00 +0.02 -0.85 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 26:02

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.