| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 31 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1:02 | Cutter Gauthier (23) Jeffrey Viel (1), Pavel Mintyukov (8) · snap xG 0.15 | 1–0 ▶ | |
| 15:24 | Ryan Poehling (4)SH Ian Moore (6) · wrist xG 0.17 | 2–0 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 1:55 | Jared McCann (12) Jordan Eberle (15), Matty Beniers (22) · wrist xG 0.14 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 4:00 | Chris Kreider (16)PP Cutter Gauthier (22), Jackson LaCombe (26) · wrist xG 0.20 | 3–1 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 1:54 | Jaden Schwartz (9) Shane Wright (11), Kaapo Kakko (14) · poke xG 0.06 | 3–2 ▶ | |
| 18:48 | Pavel Mintyukov (6)EN Mikael Granlund (12), Drew Helleson (9) · wrist xG 0.48 | 4–2 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| ANA | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.10 | Expected goals | 1.84 |
| 4 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 1.99 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.55 |
| 63 | Shot attempts | 50 |
| 50 | Unblocked attempts | 39 |
| 31 | Shots on goal | 22 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:00 | ANA | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced SEA 1.30–0.30
In xG over 10 minutes, 18:00 of the 1st to 8:00 of the 2nd; goals 1–1 |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 16:50 | ANA | Shortened bench | Shortened bench · 3 forwards sat
Strome, Harkins and Sennecke: last shifts between 6:42 and 7:36 of the 3rd |
| 18:06 | SEA | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Grubauer, down 3–2
With 1:54 left; ANA scored at 18:48 of the 3rd (4–2) |
| 19:15 | SEA | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Grubauer, down 4–2
With 0:45 left |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 64 | Mikael Granlund | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | 2 | 1 | 18:51 |
| 25 | Ryan Poehling | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 |
| 61 | Cutter Gauthier | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 9 | 0.30 | 2 | 0 | 17:13 |
| 22 | Chris Kreider | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 |
| 25 | Jeffrey Viel | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.59 | 5 | 1 | 15:57 |
| 17 | Alex Killorn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 1 | 15:17 |
| 42 | Tim Washe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 6 | 1 | 14:13 |
| 45 | Beckett Sennecke | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 0 | 13:54 |
| 49 | Ross Johnston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 |
| 10 | Jansen Harkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 1 | 10:44 |
| 22 | Ryan Strome | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.03 | 1 | 0 | 10:11 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 2 | Jackson LaCombe | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0 | 1 | 22:57 |
| 65 | Jacob Trouba | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 22:34 |
| 98 | Pavel Mintyukov | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 0.50 | 1 | 2 | 20:27 |
| 14 | Drew Helleson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 0.01 | 1 | 1 | 18:47 |
| 8 | Olen Zellweger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.12 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 |
| 6 | Radko Gudas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.07 | 5 | 0 | 16:10 |
| 3 | Ian Moore | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | 14:20 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal | 22 | 2 | 20 | .909 | 1.84 | -0.16 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 7 | Jordan Eberle | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 |
| 10 | Matty Beniers | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 0.41 | 0 | 1 | 17:51 |
| 19 | Jared McCann | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 0.20 | 2 | 0 | 16:34 |
| 9 | Chandler Stephenson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 15:54 |
| 71 | Jaden Schwartz | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 |
| 17 | Eeli Tolvanen | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.35 | 5 | 1 | 15:34 |
| 51 | Shane Wright | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.10 | 0 | 1 | 15:21 |
| 84 | Kaapo Kakko | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 |
| 27 | Berkly Catton | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 |
| 89 | Frederick Gaudreau | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 |
| 26 | Ryan Winterton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 12:20 |
| 63 | Jacob Melanson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | 10 | 0 | 10:30 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 62 | Brandon Montour | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0 | 2 | 27:54 |
| 29 | Vince Dunn | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 5 | 0.10 | 1 | 0 | 24:09 |
| 6 | Adam Larsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | 17:34 |
| 41 | Ryker Evans | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 0.07 | 1 | 0 | 16:32 |
| 4 | Jamie Oleksiak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 1 | 0 | 16:05 |
| 55 | Ryan Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 3 | 14:37 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer | 30 | 3 | 27 | .900 | 2.62 | -0.38 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98 Pavel Mintyukov D | +2.78 | +1.30 | +0.33 | +1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 20:27 |
| 61 Cutter Gauthier L | +2.56 | +1.45 | +0.19 | +0.93 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 17:13 |
| 28 Jeffrey Viel L | +2.07 | +0.70 | +0.38 | +0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 15:57 |
| 25 Ryan Poehling C | +1.81 | +0.75 | +0.14 | +0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:13 |
| 14 Drew Helleson D | +1.64 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 18:47 |
| 20 Chris Kreider L | +0.79 | +0.75 | +0.15 | -0.10 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 16:48 |
| 74 Ian Moore D | +0.63 | +0.70 | +0.02 | -0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 14:19 |
| 64 Mikael Granlund C | +0.44 | +0.70 | +0.16 | -0.41 | 0.00 | -0.04 | +0.03 | — | 18:51 |
| 24 Jansen Harkins C | +0.37 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.04 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 10:44 |
| 2 Jackson LaCombe D | +0.04 | +0.55 | +0.03 | -0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 22:54 |
| 45 Beckett Sennecke R | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.15 | -0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:54 |
| 42 Tim Washe C | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.23 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.05 | — | 14:13 |
| 16 Ryan Strome C | -0.08 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.05 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 10:11 |
| 51 Olen Zellweger D | -0.09 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 16:43 |
| 7 Radko Gudas D | -0.12 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 16:10 |
| 1 Lukas Dostal G | -0.16 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.16 | 60:00 |
| 44 Ross Johnston L | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.23 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 12:47 |
| 17 Alex Killorn L | -0.45 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 15:17 |
| 65 Jacob Trouba D | -0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 22:32 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jared McCann L | +1.16 | +0.75 | +0.13 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:34 |
| 10 Matty Beniers C | +1.12 | +0.55 | +0.27 | +0.24 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 17:51 |
| 7 Jordan Eberle R | +0.93 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 19:05 |
| 17 Jaden Schwartz L | +0.90 | +0.75 | +0.04 | +0.12 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 15:44 |
| 41 Ryker Evans D | +0.60 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.69 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 16:32 |
| 51 Shane Wright C | +0.57 | +0.70 | +0.07 | -0.19 | 0.00 | -0.02 | +0.01 | — | 15:21 |
| 84 Kaapo Kakko R | +0.36 | +0.55 | +0.03 | -0.19 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 15:11 |
| 55 Ryan Lindgren D | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 14:37 |
| 20 Eeli Tolvanen R | +0.11 | 0.00 | +0.23 | -0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 15:34 |
| 62 Brandon Montour D | +0.07 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.14 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 27:54 |
| 9 Chandler Stephenson C | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.17 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.03 | — | 15:54 |
| 63 Jacob Melanson R | -0.14 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 10:30 |
| 24 Jamie Oleksiak D | -0.19 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 16:05 |
| 27 Berkly Catton C | -0.19 | 0.00 | +0.15 | -0.47 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:37 |
| 26 Ryan Winterton C | -0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.27 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 12:20 |
| 89 Frederick Gaudreau C | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.23 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 13:25 |
| 31 Philipp Grubauer G | -0.38 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.38 | 58:41 |
| 29 Vince Dunn D | -0.40 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 24:09 |
| 6 Adam Larsson D | -0.82 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -1.01 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 17:34 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.