hockeystats.io

Utah MammothUTA 5–2 Final Nashville PredatorsNSH

Saturday, January 24, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Utah MammothUTA 032 5 30
Nashville PredatorsNSH 110 2 29

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:43 NSH Steven Stamkos (25)PP Roman Josi (22) · slap xG 0.08 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:00 UTA Clayton Keller (16) Mikhail Sergachev (27), Sean Durzi (11) · wrist xG 0.12 1–1 ▶
5:13 UTA Michael Carcone (10) Kailer Yamamoto (6) · wrist xG 0.05 2–1 ▶
8:10 UTA Kailer Yamamoto (5) Mikhail Sergachev (28), Sean Durzi (12) · tip-in xG 0.09 3–1 ▶
16:39 NSH Jonathan Marchessault (9) Brady Skjei (15) · wrist xG 0.10 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
11:02 UTA Barrett Hayton (6)PP Dylan Guenther (20), Mikhail Sergachev (29) · wrist xG 0.37 4–2 ▶
18:28 UTA JJ Peterka (18)EN Dylan Guenther (21), Barrett Hayton (10) · xG 0.99 5–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

UTA 48%Deserve to win52% NSH
UTANSH
4.10Expected goals2.92
5Goals (no shootout)2
2.05Expected goals, 5 on 52.54
56Shot attempts58
42Unblocked attempts45
30Shots on goal29

Shot map

UTA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots
Erik Haula: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:17) Erik Haula: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:18) Adam Wilsby: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:33) Michael McCarron: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:26) Cole Smith: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:40) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 76 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:01) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:25) Ian Cole: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:44) JJ Peterka: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:47) Barrett Hayton: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 7:56) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:57) Mikhail Sergachev: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:11) Roman Josi: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:51) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:01) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 9:02) Clayton Keller: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 9:14) Mikhail Sergachev: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:57) Michael McCarron: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:58) Barrett Hayton: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:00) Cole Smith: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 14:44) Cole Smith: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:45) Barrett Hayton: tip-in, 77 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:38) Matthew Wood: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:53) Dylan Guenther: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 17:07) Daniil But: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:04) Sean Durzi: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:21) Jack McBain: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 18:32) Liam O'Brien: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:38) Filip Forsberg: snap, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:17) Filip Forsberg: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:12) Roman Josi: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:16) Michael McCarron: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:39) Matthew Wood: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:27) Tyson Jost: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:28) Roman Josi: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 2:31) Sean Durzi: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:46) Brandon Tanev: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 2:48) Roman Josi: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:28) Cole Smith: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:19) Nick Blankenburg: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:42) Daniil But: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:58) Nick Perbix: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:04) Michael Bunting: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 12:24) Adam Wilsby: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:28) Michael Bunting: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 12:30) Nate Schmidt: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:05) Michael Carcone: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:11) Nick Schmaltz: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 14:38) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:39) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 16:54) Roman Josi: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 17:31) Jonathan Marchessault: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 18:05) Kevin Stenlund: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:25) Brandon Tanev: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:37) Cole Smith: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:58) John Marino: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:39) Clayton Keller: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:06) Nick Perbix: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:39) Filip Forsberg: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:02) Sean Durzi: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:47) Steven Stamkos: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:18) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 7:20) Justin Barron: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:09) Brandon Tanev: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:55) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:36) Dylan Guenther: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:59) Liam O'Brien: backhand, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:07) Clayton Keller: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:31) Clayton Keller: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:32) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 13:32) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 13:59) Roman Josi: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 14:16) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:43) Dylan Guenther: snap, 143 ft, xG 0.33 (P3 16:33) Roman Josi: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:39) Matthew Wood: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 18:19) Matthew Wood: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:20) Ozzy Wiesblatt: wrist, 113 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:46) Tyson Jost: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:19) Roman Josi: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:27) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, slap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 3:43) Clayton Keller: GOAL, wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 3:00) Michael Carcone: GOAL, wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:13) Kailer Yamamoto: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:10) Jonathan Marchessault: GOAL, wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 16:39) Barrett Hayton: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.37 (P3 11:02) JJ Peterka: GOAL, shot, 19 ft, xG 0.99 (P3 18:28)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
8 Nick Schmaltz 000 +2 40.46 1019:21
9 Clayton Keller 101 +2 70.42 0117:52
11 Dylan Guenther 022 +2 50.60 2117:06
82 Kevin Stenlund 000 0 10.08 0015:41
22 Jack McBain 000 +1 20.11 2015:35
53 Michael Carcone 101 +1 30.07 2115:10
27 Barrett Hayton 112 0 70.68 1015:10
56 Kailer Yamamoto 112 +2 10.09 1114:49
10 JJ Peterka 101 0 41.02 0114:08
38 Liam O'Brien 000 0 20.05 1012:11
50 Daniil But 000 -1 20.11 1111:51
13 Brandon Tanev 000 0 40.21 3010:45
Defense
98 Mikhail Sergachev 033 +1 50.05 1123:32
88 Nate Schmidt 000 +1 20.01 0020:21
5 Sean Durzi 022 +1 30.06 0320:14
28 Ian Cole 000 +1 10.01 3219:42
6 John Marino 000 +1 30.07 0118:28
57 Nick DeSimone 000 +1 00.00 1014:53
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Karel Vejmelka 29227 .931 2.92 +0.92

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 000 -3 30.19 0121:23
91 Steven Stamkos 101 -1 50.12 1018:58
9 Filip Forsberg 000 -2 40.24 2018:04
81 Jonathan Marchessault 101 +1 30.28 1017:16
58 Michael Bunting 000 -1 20.44 2016:39
22 Cole Smith 000 0 70.33 2015:51
47 Michael McCarron 000 0 30.12 2115:32
56 Erik Haula 000 0 20.04 3114:36
77 Luke Evangelista 000 -2 00.00 0014:31
71 Matthew Wood 000 -1 40.37 3012:47
17 Tyson Jost 000 -1 20.08 3010:37
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt 000 0 10.00 3107:26
Defense
59 Roman Josi 011 -3 100.52 1429:13
76 Brady Skjei 011 -1 20.00 4025:03
48 Nick Perbix 000 0 40.07 0018:15
2 Adam Wilsby 000 0 30.03 0117:23
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 -3 10.01 2014:41
72 Justin Barron 000 +1 20.09 0410:56
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 30426 .867 2.79 -1.21

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
98 Mikhail Sergachev D +2.43 +1.95 +0.03 +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 23:32
56 Kailer Yamamoto R +2.35 +1.45 +0.06 +0.92 -0.15 +0.01 +0.07 — 14:49
9 Clayton Keller R +2.08 +0.75 +0.27 +1.13 0.00 0.00 -0.07 — 17:52
50 Sean Durzi D +2.05 +1.10 +0.04 +0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 20:14
8 Nick Schmaltz C +1.40 0.00 +0.30 +1.08 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 19:21
11 Dylan Guenther R +1.38 +1.40 +0.39 -0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:06
27 Barrett Hayton C +1.22 +1.30 +0.44 -0.57 0.00 +0.03 +0.02 — 15:10
77 JJ Peterka R +0.93 +0.75 +0.66 -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 14:08
70 Karel Vejmelka G +0.92 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.92 60:00
53 Michael Carcone L +0.68 +0.75 +0.04 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 15:10
6 John Marino D +0.18 0.00 +0.04 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:28
19 Daniil But L +0.07 0.00 +0.07 -0.06 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 11:51
88 Nate Schmidt D -0.06 0.00 +0.01 -0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:21
22 Jack McBain C -0.16 0.00 +0.07 -0.20 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 15:35
13 Brandon Tanev L -0.36 0.00 +0.13 -0.62 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 10:45
82 Kevin Stenlund C -0.53 0.00 +0.05 -0.55 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 15:41
38 Liam O'Brien C -0.73 0.00 +0.04 -0.77 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 12:11
57 Nick DeSimone D -0.80 0.00 0.00 -0.61 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 14:53
28 Ian Cole D -1.07 0.00 +0.01 -1.14 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 19:42

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
81 Jonathan Marchessault R +1.10 +0.75 +0.19 +0.19 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 17:16
76 Brady Skjei D +1.02 +0.70 0.00 +0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 25:03
71 Matthew Wood R +0.98 0.00 +0.24 +0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:47
48 Nick Perbix D +0.76 0.00 +0.04 +0.74 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:15
20 Justin Barron D +0.74 0.00 +0.06 +0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 10:56
58 Michael Bunting L +0.66 0.00 +0.28 +0.39 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 16:39
56 Erik Haula L +0.66 0.00 +0.03 +0.62 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 14:36
91 Steven Stamkos C +0.58 +0.75 +0.08 -0.30 0.00 +0.06 0.00 — 18:58
59 Roman Josi D +0.51 +0.70 +0.34 -0.88 +0.15 0.00 +0.20 — 29:13
17 Tyson Jost C +0.47 0.00 +0.05 +0.42 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 10:37
36 Cole Smith R +0.28 0.00 +0.21 +0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:51
47 Michael McCarron C +0.19 0.00 +0.08 +0.11 0.00 -0.01 +0.01 — 15:32
9 Filip Forsberg L +0.13 0.00 +0.16 -0.04 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 18:04
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt C +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 7:26
83 Adam Wilsby D 0.00 0.00 +0.02 +0.08 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 17:23
37 Nick Blankenburg D -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:41
77 Luke Evangelista R -0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:31
90 Ryan O'Reilly C -0.87 0.00 +0.12 -1.03 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 21:23
74 Juuse Saros G -1.21 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.21 57:47

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.