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Florida PanthersFLA 4–3 Final/OT Minnesota WildMIN

Saturday, January 24, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 2011 4 34
Minnesota WildMIN 1110 3 21

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
6:44 FLA Sam Reinhart (25) Aaron Ekblad (18), Carter Verhaeghe (23) · wrist xG 0.32 1–0 ▶
9:17 MIN Kirill Kaprizov (28)PP Matt Boldy (25), Mats Zuccarello (22) · wrist xG 0.08 1–1 ▶
18:20 FLA Brad Marchand (24)PP Sam Reinhart (24), Matthew Tkachuk (2) · backhand xG 0.05 2–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:33 MIN Joel Eriksson Ek (12)PP Kirill Kaprizov (36), Quinn Hughes (44) · wrist xG 0.32 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
12:09 MIN Matt Boldy (28)SH Unassisted · wrist xG 0.23 2–3 ▶
13:11 FLA Sam Bennett (19)PP Matthew Tkachuk (3), Brad Marchand (24) · wrist xG 0.18 3–3 ▶
Overtime
3:00 FLA Brad Marchand (25) Carter Verhaeghe (24) · snap xG 0.33 4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 63%Deserve to win37% MIN
FLAMIN
3.65Expected goals2.84
4Goals (no shootout)3
1.92Expected goals, 5 on 51.12
57Shot attempts48
47Unblocked attempts29
34Shots on goal21

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
11:43 FLA Deserve to win Deserve to win · FLA takes the lead, 61–39%
MIN had led since 3:51 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
15:20 FLA xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced MIN 1.19–0.10
In xG over 10 minutes, 6:10 to 16:10 of the 1st; goals 1–1

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ MIN shoots
A.J. Greer: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:57) Sam Bennett: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:58) Matt Boldy: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.26 (P1 3:51) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:05) Sam Reinhart: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:24) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:04) Aaron Ekblad: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:41) Anton Lundell: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 11:27) Eetu Luostarinen: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:43) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:47) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:09) Brock Faber: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:59) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:43) Brad Marchand: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:15) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.31 (P1 14:18) Eetu Luostarinen: deflected, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:23) Carter Verhaeghe: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 15:13) Carter Verhaeghe: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:32) Kirill Kaprizov: backhand, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:40) Matt Boldy: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:48) Mats Zuccarello: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 0:27) Matthew Tkachuk: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 1:45) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 2:03) Sam Bennett: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:10) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:53) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:09) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:17) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 4:31) Matthew Tkachuk: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 4:54) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:13) Nico Sturm: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:32) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:10) Vladimir Tarasenko: deflected, 5 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 8:44) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:09) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 9:24) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:40) Sam Reinhart: deflected, 12 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 10:13) Anton Lundell: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:49) Anton Lundell: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:07) Quinn Hughes: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:18) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:23) Anton Lundell: wrist, 84 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 12:44) Brock Faber: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:02) Brad Marchand: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:15) Marcus Johansson: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:41) Matt Boldy: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 13:59) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:43) Vladimir Tarasenko: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 15:41) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 15:58) Uvis Balinskis: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:22) Brad Marchand: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 17:52) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:53) Uvis Balinskis: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:20) Ryan Hartman: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 0:11) Ryan Hartman: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:12) Sandis Vilmanis: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:25) Eetu Luostarinen: deflected, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:15) Anton Lundell: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:36) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:46) Vladimir Tarasenko: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 9:51) Brock Faber: slap, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 10:50) Brad Marchand: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 11:39) Brad Marchand: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 11:45) Sam Reinhart: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 12:59) Sam Reinhart: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:05) Marcus Foligno: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 13:26) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:09) Sam Bennett: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:54) Anton Lundell: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:39) Sam Reinhart: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.32 (P1 6:44) Kirill Kaprizov: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:17) Brad Marchand: GOAL, backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:20) Joel Eriksson Ek: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.32 (P2 4:33) Matt Boldy: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 12:09) Sam Bennett: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 13:11) Brad Marchand: GOAL, snap, 12 ft, xG 0.33 (OT 3:00)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Sam Reinhart 112 0 90.89 0026:22
9 Sam Bennett 101 -1 60.30 2025:11
19 Matthew Tkachuk 022 -1 50.33 1020:06
15 Anton Lundell 000 0 70.24 1019:35
63 Brad Marchand 213 0 80.82 0018:12
23 Carter Verhaeghe 022 +2 50.37 0015:46
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 0 40.46 1214:42
17 Evan Rodrigues 000 +1 30.06 0014:35
11 Mackie Samoskevich 000 0 00.00 1010:36
18 A.J. Greer 000 0 10.01 2109:03
71 Luke Kunin 000 0 00.00 2107:02
95 Sandis Vilmanis 000 0 10.06 0005:24
Defense
42 Gustav Forsling 000 +1 10.00 0527:16
26 Uvis Balinskis 000 -1 30.07 2124:07
77 Niko Mikkola 000 +1 20.03 1221:00
5 Aaron Ekblad 011 +1 20.04 2220:57
2 Jeff Petry 000 0 00.00 0112:22
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky 21318 .857 2.84 -0.16

Minnesota Wild

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Kirill Kaprizov 112 -2 110.41 2125:32
12 Matt Boldy 112 0 60.64 0122:55
36 Mats Zuccarello 011 -1 40.12 0022:46
14 Joel Eriksson Ek 101 +1 30.32 2018:14
38 Ryan Hartman 000 -1 20.16 2117:50
90 Marcus Johansson 000 0 20.16 0015:00
91 Vladimir Tarasenko 000 0 50.57 0114:10
17 Marcus Foligno 000 0 10.07 3013:42
22 Danila Yurov 000 0 10.00 0012:32
13 Yakov Trenin 000 0 00.00 4109:45
78 Nico Sturm 000 0 10.02 1008:51
18 Vinnie Hinostroza 000 0 00.00 0004:18
Defense
43 Quinn Hughes 011 -2 50.15 0231:16
7 Brock Faber 000 0 30.21 1127:44
46 Jared Spurgeon 000 0 10.00 0118:47
55 Jake Middleton 000 +1 20.00 0017:35
48 Daemon Hunt 000 0 00.00 2110:39
5 David Jiricek 000 0 10.00 0007:24
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Filip Gustavsson 34430 .882 3.65 -0.35

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
63 Brad Marchand L +3.20 +2.05 +0.53 +0.66 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:12
13 Sam Reinhart C +2.74 +1.45 +0.58 +0.70 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 26:22
23 Carter Verhaeghe C +2.40 +1.25 +0.24 +0.76 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:46
5 Aaron Ekblad D +1.90 +0.70 +0.02 +0.93 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 20:57
42 Gustav Forsling D +1.25 0.00 0.00 +1.00 0.00 0.00 +0.25 — 27:16
19 Matthew Tkachuk L +1.23 +1.25 +0.21 -0.36 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 20:06
27 Eetu Luostarinen C +0.85 0.00 +0.30 +0.58 -0.15 0.00 +0.12 — 14:42
15 Anton Lundell C +0.81 0.00 +0.15 +0.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:35
17 Evan Rodrigues C +0.71 0.00 +0.04 +0.67 0.00 -0.02 +0.02 — 14:35
9 Sam Bennett C +0.70 +0.75 +0.19 -0.28 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 25:11
2 Jeff Petry D +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 12:22
71 Luke Kunin C +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.05 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 7:02
95 Sandis Vilmanis L +0.09 0.00 +0.04 +0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 5:24
22 Tobias Bjornfot D +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 6:40
77 Niko Mikkola D -0.08 0.00 +0.02 -0.01 -0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 21:00
26 Uvis Balinskis D -0.13 0.00 +0.04 -0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 24:07
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G -0.16 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.16 63:00
10 A.J. Greer L -0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 9:03
11 Mackie Samoskevich R -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 10:36

Minnesota Wild

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
12 Matt Boldy L +2.18 +1.45 +0.42 +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 22:55
14 Joel Eriksson Ek C +1.31 +0.75 +0.21 +0.29 0.00 +0.06 0.00 — 18:14
97 Kirill Kaprizov L +1.22 +1.45 +0.26 -0.21 -0.30 0.00 +0.01 — 25:32
90 Marcus Johansson L +0.72 0.00 +0.10 +0.47 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:00
36 Mats Zuccarello R +0.41 +0.55 +0.08 -0.35 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 22:46
43 Quinn Hughes D +0.22 +0.55 +0.10 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 31:16
38 Ryan Hartman R +0.19 0.00 +0.10 -0.04 +0.15 -0.03 +0.01 — 17:50
48 Daemon Hunt D +0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:39
46 Jared Spurgeon D -0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.36 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 18:47
55 David Jiricek D -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 7:24
91 Vladimir Tarasenko R -0.19 0.00 +0.37 -0.76 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 14:10
18 Vinnie Hinostroza C -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 4:18
13 Yakov Trenin C -0.30 0.00 0.00 -0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:45
32 Filip Gustavsson G -0.35 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.35 62:22
7 Brock Faber D -0.39 0.00 +0.14 -0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 27:44
78 Nico Sturm C -0.39 0.00 +0.02 -0.23 -0.15 -0.03 0.00 — 8:51
5 Jake Middleton D -0.73 0.00 0.00 -0.52 -0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 17:35
17 Marcus Foligno L -0.97 0.00 +0.05 -0.83 -0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 13:42
22 Danila Yurov R -1.11 0.00 0.00 -1.06 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 12:32

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.