Colorado AvalancheCOL 4–1 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Sunday, January 25, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL	2	1	1	4	37
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	0	0	1	1	33

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
6:19	COL	Brock Nelson (25) Cale Makar (41) · wrist xG 0.07	1–0 ▶
7:31	COL	Brock Nelson (26) Artturi Lehkonen (21), Valeri Nichushkin (17) · wrist xG 0.05	2–0 ▶
2nd Period
18:53	COL	Jack Drury (8) Parker Kelly (9), Joel Kiviranta (4) · wrist xG 0.08	3–0 ▶
3rd Period
17:41	COL	Brock Nelson (27)EN Nathan MacKinnon (50) · wrist xG 0.61	4–0 ▶
18:58	TOR	Max Domi (7)PP Bobby McMann (11), Easton Cowan (10) · wrist xG 0.40	4–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 59%Deserve to win41% TOR

COL		TOR
4.83	Expected goals	3.17
4	Goals (no shootout)	1
2.88	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.81
70	Shot attempts	61
51	Unblocked attempts	51
37	Shots on goal	33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
17:50	COL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.59–0.09 In xG over 10 minutes, 13:50 of the 2nd to 3:50 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
18:50	TOR	No shift	No shift · Quillan, 14:41 on the bench No shift from 6:49 of the 2nd to 3:31 of the 3rd; 6 shifts (3:19) before that
3rd Period
11:05	COL	Goalie	Goalie · Blackwood +2.0 goals saved 0 goals on 2.02 xG, 24 shots on goal
14:14	TOR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Woll, down 3–0 With 5:46 left; COL scored at 17:41 of the 3rd (4–0)
19:00	TOR	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced COL 1.35–0.01 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:00 to 19:00 of the 3rd; goals 1–1

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
29	Nathan MacKinnon	0	1	1	+2	7	0.38	1	0	23:18
88	Martin Necas	0	0	0	+1	5	0.36	1	0	20:57
11	Brock Nelson	3	0	3	+3	7	1.32	0	0	20:37
95	Victor Olofsson	0	0	0	+1	4	0.48	0	0	18:12
43	Valeri Nichushkin	0	1	1	+1	5	0.78	1	0	17:04
62	Artturi Lehkonen	0	1	1	+1	4	0.20	0	0	16:07
18	Jack Drury	1	0	1	+1	2	0.08	0	0	15:22
17	Parker Kelly	0	1	1	+1	3	0.36	3	1	11:29
54	Gavin Brindley	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	0	0	10:32
16	Taylor Makar	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	1	0	09:56
22	Joel Kiviranta	0	1	1	+1	2	0.06	2	0	08:53
93	Zakhar Bardakov	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	06:50
Defense
8	Cale Makar	0	1	1	+2	12	0.21	0	2	23:28
70	Sam Malinski	0	0	0	+1	5	0.26	0	0	21:09
84	Brent Burns	0	0	0	+1	2	0.00	0	0	20:50
42	Josh Manson	0	0	0	+2	4	0.09	4	4	20:19
49	Samuel Girard	0	0	0	+2	1	0.02	0	0	19:38
47	Jack Ahcan	0	0	0	0	3	0.03	0	1	10:46

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood	33	1	32	.970	3.17	+2.17

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
34	Auston Matthews	0	0	0	-1	11	0.75	0	2	19:42
91	John Tavares	0	0	0	-2	4	0.15	1	0	19:04
11	Max Domi	1	0	1	-1	1	0.40	0	0	18:10
74	Bobby McMann	0	1	1	-3	4	0.18	5	0	18:01
63	Matias Maccelli	0	0	0	-1	6	0.30	1	0	17:48
89	Matthew Knies	0	0	0	-1	3	0.23	2	1	16:52
21	Scott Laughton	0	0	0	-2	8	0.35	3	0	16:36
10	Nicolas Roy	0	0	0	-1	4	0.18	1	1	15:40
18	Steven Lorentz	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	3	13:13
14	Nick Robertson	0	0	0	-1	2	0.08	0	0	13:13
53	Easton Cowan	0	1	1	-1	3	0.19	0	0	11:44
26	Jacob Quillan	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	06:12
Defense
44	Morgan Rielly	0	0	0	0	5	0.09	0	3	22:00
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	0	0	0	-3	1	0.08	2	2	20:03
28	Troy Stecher	0	0	0	-2	4	0.16	1	0	18:45
22	Jake McCabe	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	4	1	18:43
25	Brandon Carlo	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	2	2	17:26
44	Simon Benoit	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	3	1	16:15

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Joseph Woll	36	3	33	.917	3.71	+0.71

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
11 Brock Nelson C	+3.91	+2.25	+0.86	+0.83	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	20:37
8 Cale Makar D	+2.54	+0.70	+0.14	+1.43	+0.15	0.00	+0.12	—	23:28
39 Mackenzie Blackwood G	+2.17	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.17	60:00
29 Nathan MacKinnon C	+2.01	+0.70	+0.25	+1.09	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	23:18
13 Valeri Nichushkin R	+1.84	+0.55	+0.51	+0.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:04
62 Artturi Lehkonen L	+1.61	+0.70	+0.13	+0.97	-0.15	-0.01	-0.04	—	16:07
17 Parker Kelly C	+1.22	+0.70	+0.23	+0.33	0.00	-0.07	+0.03	—	11:29
88 Martin Necas C	+1.02	0.00	+0.23	+0.79	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	20:57
94 Joel Kiviranta L	+0.94	+0.55	+0.04	+0.33	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	8:53
42 Josh Manson D	+0.84	0.00	+0.06	+0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	20:19
18 Jack Drury C	+0.72	+0.75	+0.05	-0.10	0.00	+0.06	-0.04	—	15:22
84 Brent Burns D	+0.68	0.00	0.00	+0.72	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	20:50
95 Victor Olofsson L	+0.60	0.00	+0.31	+0.33	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	18:12
70 Sam Malinski D	+0.60	0.00	+0.17	+0.46	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	21:09
49 Samuel Girard D	+0.17	0.00	+0.01	+0.20	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	19:38
93 Zakhar Bardakov C	+0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.28	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	6:50
54 Gavin Brindley C	-0.08	0.00	+0.05	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	10:32
16 Taylor Makar L	-0.20	0.00	+0.07	-0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:56
15 Jack Ahcan D	-0.51	0.00	+0.02	-0.54	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	10:46

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
63 Matias Maccelli L	+0.74	0.00	+0.19	+0.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:48
60 Joseph Woll G	+0.71	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.71	56:33
11 Max Domi C	+0.56	+0.75	+0.26	-0.44	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	18:07
55 Nicolas Roy C	+0.46	0.00	+0.12	+0.33	0.00	-0.02	+0.03	—	15:40
53 Easton Cowan R	+0.30	+0.55	+0.13	-0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:41
34 Auston Matthews C	+0.27	0.00	+0.48	-0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	19:42
44 Morgan Rielly D	+0.24	0.00	+0.06	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	22:03
23 Matthew Knies L	+0.19	0.00	+0.15	-0.18	+0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	16:52
91 John Tavares C	+0.06	0.00	+0.10	-0.30	+0.15	+0.11	0.00	—	19:04
74 Bobby McMann C	-0.02	+0.70	+0.12	-0.84	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:58
28 Troy Stecher D	-0.04	0.00	+0.10	-0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.08	—	18:45
89 Nick Robertson L	-0.25	0.00	+0.05	-0.32	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	13:10
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	-0.71	0.00	+0.05	-0.80	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	20:00
24 Scott Laughton C	-0.73	0.00	+0.23	-0.94	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	16:39
22 Jake McCabe D	-0.76	0.00	0.00	-0.81	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:43
26 Jacob Quillan C	-0.77	0.00	0.00	-0.78	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	6:15
18 Steven Lorentz C	-0.83	0.00	0.00	-0.98	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	13:16
2 Simon Benoit D	-0.89	0.00	+0.01	-0.80	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	16:15
25 Brandon Carlo D	-1.16	0.00	+0.01	-1.12	-0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	17:29

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.