| Final/OT | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 21 | |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 35 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 6:17 | Jonathan Huberdeau (9) Mikael Backlund (20), Matt Coronato (14) · wrist xG 0.28 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 7:56 | Hunter Brzustewicz (1) Adam Klapka (7), Joel Farabee (10) · wrist xG 0.03 | 0–2 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 3:22 | Beckett Sennecke (16) Alex Killorn (10), Mikael Granlund (13) · snap xG 0.17 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 12:41 | Beckett Sennecke (17) Mikael Granlund (14), Alex Killorn (11) · wrist xG 0.11 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 4:50 | Matt Coronato (14)PP Matvei Gridin (2), Nazem Kadri (26) · wrist xG 0.17 | 2–3 ▶ | |
| 13:08 | Chris Kreider (17) Ryan Poehling (14), Cutter Gauthier (23) · snap xG 0.14 | 3–3 ▶ | |
| Overtime | |||
| 2:54 | Beckett Sennecke (18) Jackson LaCombe (27) · wrist xG 0.11 | 4–3 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| ANA | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.35 | Expected goals | 3.40 |
| 4 | Goals (no shootout) | 3 |
| 1.63 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.14 |
| 59 | Shot attempts | 68 |
| 41 | Unblocked attempts | 50 |
| 21 | Shots on goal | 35 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 3rd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:20 | CGY | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced ANA 1.14–0.12
In xG over 10 minutes, 17:20 of the 2nd to 7:20 of the 3rd; goals 1–0 |
| 15:40 | ANA | No shift | No shift · Helleson, 14:23 on the bench
No shift after 3:37 of the 3rd; 17 shifts (11:01) before that |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 45 | Beckett Sennecke | 3 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 5 | 0.50 | 1 | 1 | 19:32 |
| 61 | Cutter Gauthier | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.13 | 1 | 0 | 18:49 |
| 17 | Alex Killorn | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 0.30 | 1 | 0 | 18:21 |
| 64 | Mikael Granlund | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 1 | 18:18 |
| 25 | Ryan Poehling | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.16 | 2 | 1 | 16:31 |
| 22 | Chris Kreider | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 0.75 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 |
| 10 | Jansen Harkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 1 | 0 | 15:19 |
| 25 | Jeffrey Viel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.04 | 4 | 2 | 15:05 |
| 22 | Ryan Strome | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.07 | 2 | 0 | 14:35 |
| 42 | Tim Washe | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.05 | 4 | 1 | 12:01 |
| 49 | Ross Johnston | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.08 | 6 | 0 | 11:21 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 65 | Jacob Trouba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.02 | 1 | 2 | 24:54 |
| 2 | Jackson LaCombe | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0 | 1 | 24:38 |
| 6 | Radko Gudas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.05 | 1 | 3 | 22:13 |
| 98 | Pavel Mintyukov | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.02 | 1 | 1 | 20:34 |
| 8 | Olen Zellweger | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.00 | 0 | 3 | 17:37 |
| 14 | Drew Helleson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 |
| 3 | Ian Moore | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal | 35 | 3 | 32 | .914 | 3.40 | +0.40 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 11 | Mikael Backlund | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 |
| 17 | Yegor Sharangovich | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.23 | 1 | 0 | 18:25 |
| 91 | Nazem Kadri | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 0.54 | 0 | 0 | 18:18 |
| 27 | Matt Coronato | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 0.40 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 |
| 47 | Connor Zary | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 0 | 16:27 |
| 10 | Jonathan Huberdeau | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 0.69 | 0 | 1 | 15:18 |
| 86 | Joel Farabee | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 |
| 92 | Matvei Gridin | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 5 | 0.09 | 0 | 2 | 13:39 |
| 76 | Martin Pospisil | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.03 | 9 | 0 | 13:29 |
| 16 | Morgan Frost | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 12:28 |
| 43 | Adam Klapka | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 7 | 1 | 12:08 |
| 28 | Justin Kirkland | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.25 | 2 | 2 | 12:02 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 7 | Kevin Bahl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 25:41 |
| 52 | MacKenzie Weegar | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 6 | 0.06 | 1 | 5 | 24:27 |
| 28 | Zach Whitecloud | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.10 | 4 | 2 | 23:56 |
| 37 | Yan Kuznetsov | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.27 | 0 | 3 | 19:07 |
| 44 | Joel Hanley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 |
| 48 | Hunter Brzustewicz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.03 | 1 | 1 | 13:14 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf | 21 | 4 | 17 | .810 | 2.35 | -1.65 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 Beckett Sennecke R | +2.58 | +2.25 | +0.33 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 19:32 |
| 17 Alex Killorn L | +1.38 | +1.25 | +0.19 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.04 | — | 18:21 |
| 20 Chris Kreider L | +1.24 | +0.75 | +0.49 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 16:10 |
| 64 Mikael Granlund C | +1.22 | +1.25 | +0.08 | -0.09 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.01 | — | 18:18 |
| 25 Ryan Poehling C | +1.10 | +0.70 | +0.11 | +0.27 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | — | 16:31 |
| 61 Cutter Gauthier L | +0.74 | +0.55 | +0.08 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.04 | — | 18:49 |
| 2 Jackson LaCombe D | +0.42 | +0.70 | +0.02 | -0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 24:38 |
| 1 Lukas Dostal G | +0.40 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.40 | 62:54 |
| 98 Pavel Mintyukov D | +0.33 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 20:34 |
| 51 Olen Zellweger D | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 17:37 |
| 24 Jansen Harkins C | +0.05 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.27 | +0.30 | -0.03 | +0.02 | — | 15:19 |
| 28 Jeffrey Viel L | -0.02 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 15:05 |
| 65 Jacob Trouba D | -0.16 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 24:54 |
| 74 Ian Moore D | -0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 10:30 |
| 7 Radko Gudas D | -0.18 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 22:13 |
| 14 Drew Helleson D | -0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.08 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:01 |
| 42 Tim Washe C | -0.26 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 12:01 |
| 44 Ross Johnston L | -0.27 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.31 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 11:21 |
| 16 Ryan Strome C | -0.36 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.40 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 14:35 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Matt Coronato R | +2.49 | +1.30 | +0.26 | +0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 17:02 |
| 10 Jonathan Huberdeau L | +1.82 | +0.75 | +0.45 | +0.42 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 15:18 |
| 11 Mikael Backlund C | +1.71 | +0.70 | +0.20 | +0.82 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.04 | — | 19:20 |
| 48 Hunter Brzustewicz D | +1.02 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 13:14 |
| 86 Joel Farabee L | +0.83 | +0.55 | +0.12 | +0.14 | 0.00 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 14:16 |
| 43 Adam Klapka R | +0.77 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.10 | — | 12:08 |
| 91 Nazem Kadri C | +0.70 | +0.55 | +0.35 | -0.19 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 18:18 |
| 52 MacKenzie Weegar D | +0.54 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.25 | — | 24:27 |
| 37 Yan Kuznetsov D | +0.45 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.31 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.11 | — | 19:07 |
| 92 Matvei Gridin R | +0.37 | +0.70 | +0.06 | -0.48 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.10 | — | 13:39 |
| 23 Justin Kirkland C | +0.28 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.26 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 12:02 |
| 7 Kevin Bahl D | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 25:41 |
| 17 Yegor Sharangovich C | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.15 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 18:25 |
| 44 Joel Hanley D | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:25 |
| 76 Martin Pospisil C | +0.02 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 13:29 |
| 28 Zach Whitecloud D | +0.01 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | — | 23:56 |
| 47 Connor Zary C | +0.01 | 0.00 | +0.14 | -0.10 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.04 | — | 16:27 |
| 16 Morgan Frost C | -0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.48 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.04 | — | 12:28 |
| 32 Dustin Wolf G | -1.65 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -1.65 | 62:54 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.