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Buffalo SabresBUF 7–4 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF 313 7 31
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 211 4 23

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
7:44 TOR Matthew Knies (13) John Tavares (26), Matias Maccelli (14) · wrist xG 0.28 0–1 ▶
9:29 BUF Rasmus Dahlin (9) Ryan McLeod (24), Mattias Samuelsson (21) · wrist xG 0.07 1–1 ▶
10:49 TOR Auston Matthews (26) Max Domi (19), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (24) · backhand xG 0.21 1–2 ▶
13:16 BUF Josh Doan (16)PP Rasmus Dahlin (30) · wrist xG 0.07 2–2
18:05 BUF Tage Thompson (28) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.04 3–2 ▶
2nd Period
11:17 TOR Bobby McMann (17) Auston Matthews (18), Max Domi (20) · wrist xG 0.09 3–3 ▶
18:17 BUF Rasmus Dahlin (10) Mattias Samuelsson (22), Peyton Krebs (16) · tip-in xG 0.06 4–3 ▶
3rd Period
0:16 BUF Alex Tuch (19) Tage Thompson (27), Mattias Samuelsson (23) · wrist xG 0.05 5–3 ▶
11:33 BUF Jack Quinn (12) Rasmus Dahlin (31) · wrist xG 0.13 6–3 ▶
14:59 TOR Max Domi (8) Auston Matthews (19), Bobby McMann (12) · wrist xG 0.17 6–4 ▶
19:16 BUF Rasmus Dahlin (11)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.53 7–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 48%Deserve to win52% TOR
BUFTOR
3.45Expected goals3.04
7Goals (no shootout)4
2.55Expected goals, 5 on 52.76
59Shot attempts53
46Unblocked attempts33
31Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
12:14 BUF Goalie change Goalie change · Ellis in for Luukkonen
12:14 of the 1st; Luukkonen had allowed 2 goals on 5 shots (0.68 xG)
18:05 TOR Goalie Goalie · Woll −2.1 goals saved
3 goals on 0.87 xG, 10 shots on goal
2nd Period
4:36 BUF Deserve to win Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 66–34%
TOR had led since 7:44 of the 1st, by as much as 60%
9:10 TOR No shift No shift · Roy, 22:35 on the bench
No shift from 19:08 of the 1st to 1:43 of the 3rd; 6 shifts (6:03) before that
3rd Period
0:50 TOR No shift No shift · Cowan, 11:08 on the bench
No shift from 10:49 of the 2nd to 1:57 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (8:02) before that
17:24 TOR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Woll, down 6–4
With 2:36 left; BUF scored at 19:16 of the 3rd (7–4)
17:50 BUF No shift No shift · Metsa, 11:33 on the bench
No shift after 4:44 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (8:17) before that

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
John Tavares: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:16) Konsta Helenius: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 1:51) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:55) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:33) Matias Maccelli: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:42) Konsta Helenius: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:22) Bobby McMann: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:50) Bowen Byram: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 9:54) Max Domi: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 10:47) Jack Quinn: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 11:10) Noah Ostlund: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:08) Tage Thompson: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:09) Zach Metsa: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:42) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:14) Owen Power: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:37) Tage Thompson: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 17:57) Jason Zucker: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:16) Jack Quinn: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:52) Josh Doan: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:19) Konsta Helenius: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:55) Alex Tuch: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:15) Peyton Krebs: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:21) Jason Zucker: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 4:36) Max Domi: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:46) Josh Doan: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:26) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:02) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:56) Owen Power: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:16) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 12:35) Josh Doan: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:47) Michael Kesselring: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:37) Noah Ostlund: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:46) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:49) Jake McCabe: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 14:36) Auston Matthews: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 14:38) Jake McCabe: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:40) Steven Lorentz: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:03) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:45) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:59) Alex Tuch: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:09) Troy Stecher: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:53) Jason Zucker: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 19:12) Josh Doan: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 19:27) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 1:34) Peyton Krebs: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:47) Zach Benson: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:49) Bobby McMann: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 4:42) Max Domi: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:57) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:48) Easton Cowan: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:53) Calle Jarnkrok: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 6:46) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:41) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:57) Jason Zucker: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 8:20) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:30) Owen Power: wrist, 84 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:20) Bobby McMann: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:29) Jack Quinn: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 9:41) Michael Kesselring: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:45) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 12:38) Scott Laughton: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:39) Josh Doan: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 13:55) Matthew Knies: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 16:13) Auston Matthews: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 17:16) Auston Matthews: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 18:05) Max Domi: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:21) John Tavares: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:23) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:53) Matthew Knies: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.28 (P1 7:44) Rasmus Dahlin: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 9:29) Auston Matthews: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 10:49) Josh Doan: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:16) Tage Thompson: GOAL, wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:05) Bobby McMann: GOAL, wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:17) Rasmus Dahlin: GOAL, tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:17) Alex Tuch: GOAL, wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:16) Jack Quinn: GOAL, wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 11:33) Max Domi: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 14:59) Rasmus Dahlin: GOAL, wrist, 154 ft, xG 0.53 (P3 19:16)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
72 Tage Thompson 112 +1 30.18 1318:57
86 Noah Ostlund 000 0 20.12 1018:33
91 Josh Doan 101 0 80.39 0217:19
6 Zach Benson 000 +1 20.03 0117:02
94 Konsta Helenius 000 -1 30.15 0016:12
17 Jason Zucker 000 0 40.67 0015:55
89 Alex Tuch 101 +2 40.12 1115:44
22 Jack Quinn 101 0 50.46 0014:21
71 Ryan McLeod 011 0 10.00 1013:36
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 +1 00.00 1311:10
19 Peyton Krebs 011 +1 20.03 0111:03
48 Tyson Kozak 000 +1 00.00 6010:36
Defense
26 Rasmus Dahlin 325 +2 100.94 0126:24
25 Owen Power 000 -1 40.07 0123:02
24 Bowen Byram 000 0 10.20 0222:48
23 Mattias Samuelsson 033 +2 40.00 4320:57
7 Michael Kesselring 000 +1 50.08 1214:24
73 Zach Metsa 000 0 10.02 0008:17
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 523 .600 0.68 -1.32
Colten Ellis 18216 .889 2.35 +0.35

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
91 John Tavares 011 -1 20.15 3119:58
34 Auston Matthews 123 0 70.74 1119:36
89 Matthew Knies 101 -1 30.39 3017:44
74 Bobby McMann 112 -1 50.32 2017:40
11 Max Domi 123 +1 60.31 1015:55
63 Matias Maccelli 011 -1 30.42 1015:36
21 Scott Laughton 000 -1 10.05 3114:21
14 Nick Robertson 000 -2 00.00 1013:17
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 30.12 5012:20
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 0 20.27 0111:15
53 Easton Cowan 000 0 10.02 1211:14
10 Nicolas Roy 000 -2 20.00 1009:44
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 000 0 40.18 5121:54
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 011 -3 30.04 0121:43
44 Morgan Rielly 000 0 20.01 0020:52
28 Troy Stecher 000 0 40.01 1219:03
25 Brandon Carlo 000 +1 20.00 1217:15
44 Simon Benoit 000 -1 30.00 3115:56
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 30624 .800 2.92 -3.08

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +4.42 +3.65 +0.61 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 26:24
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +1.72 +1.80 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 21:41
91 Josh Doan R +1.53 +0.75 +0.25 +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:19
8 Michael Kesselring D +1.25 0.00 +0.05 +1.12 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 15:08
22 Jack Quinn R +1.16 +0.75 +0.30 +0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:21
72 Tage Thompson C +1.06 +1.45 +0.12 -0.56 0.00 -0.10 +0.15 — 18:57
71 Ryan McLeod C +1.05 +0.70 0.00 +0.29 0.00 +0.04 +0.02 — 13:36
89 Alex Tuch R +0.85 +0.75 +0.08 +0.04 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 — 15:44
86 Noah Ostlund C +0.84 0.00 +0.08 +0.68 +0.15 -0.05 -0.02 — 18:33
17 Jason Zucker L +0.63 0.00 +0.44 +0.25 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 — 15:55
92 Colten Ellis G +0.35 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.35 47:46
94 Konsta Helenius C +0.34 0.00 +0.10 +0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:12
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.08 +0.55 +0.02 -0.50 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 11:47
4 Bowen Byram D +0.02 0.00 +0.13 -0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:48
6 Zach Benson L -0.16 0.00 +0.02 -0.38 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 17:02
73 Zach Metsa D -0.19 0.00 +0.01 -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:17
29 Beck Malenstyn L -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 11:54
48 Tyson Kozak C -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 11:20
25 Owen Power D -0.82 0.00 +0.05 -0.88 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 23:02
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G -1.32 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.32 12:14

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
34 Auston Matthews C +3.56 +2.15 +0.48 +0.75 0.00 +0.11 +0.07 — 19:36
11 Max Domi C +2.51 +2.00 +0.20 +0.32 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 15:55
74 Bobby McMann C +1.96 +1.30 +0.21 +0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:40
22 Jake McCabe D +1.43 0.00 +0.12 +1.26 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:54
23 Matthew Knies L +1.26 +0.75 +0.25 +0.27 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 17:44
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.97 +0.55 +0.03 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:43
63 Matias Maccelli L +0.84 +0.55 +0.27 +0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:36
25 Brandon Carlo D +0.71 0.00 0.00 +0.76 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 17:15
91 John Tavares C +0.59 +0.70 +0.09 -0.23 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 19:58
19 Calle Jarnkrok C +0.38 0.00 +0.17 +0.16 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 11:59
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.17 0.00 +0.08 +0.24 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:04
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.08 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:52
24 Scott Laughton C -0.01 0.00 +0.03 -0.11 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 15:05
53 Easton Cowan R -0.28 0.00 +0.01 -0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 11:14
89 Nick Robertson L -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.52 0.00 -0.01 +0.04 — 13:17
55 Nicolas Roy C -0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.59 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 9:44
28 Troy Stecher D -0.90 0.00 +0.01 -1.01 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:47
2 Simon Benoit D -1.39 0.00 0.00 -1.44 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:40
60 Joseph Woll G -3.08 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -3.08 58:08

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.