hockeystats.io

Dallas StarsDAL 4–3 Final St. Louis BluesSTL

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Dallas StarsDAL 031 4 24
St. Louis BluesSTL 003 3 26

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
3:20 DAL Matt Duchene (6)PP Mikko Rantanen (45), Jason Robertson (31) · tip-in xG 0.11 1–0 ▶
4:00 DAL Matt Duchene (7) Thomas Harley (17), Sam Steel (13) · backhand xG 0.03 2–0 ▶
18:06 DAL Roope Hintz (15)PP Jason Robertson (32), Miro Heiskanen (34) · slap xG 0.15 3–0 ▶
3rd Period
3:15 STL Robby Fabbri (1) Justin Faulk (14), Tyler Tucker (8) · wrist xG 0.15 3–1 ▶
6:22 STL Brayden Schenn (11) Jimmy Snuggerud (10), Dalibor Dvorsky (5) · wrist xG 0.07 3–2 ▶
15:50 STL Brayden Schenn (12) Jimmy Snuggerud (11) · wrist xG 0.11 3–3 ▶
18:53 DAL Thomas Harley (3) Wyatt Johnston (30) · wrist xG 0.03 4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DAL 64%Deserve to win36% STL
DALSTL
2.87Expected goals2.09
4Goals (no shootout)3
1.72Expected goals, 5 on 52.05
58Shot attempts57
41Unblocked attempts35
24Shots on goal26

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
16:00 DAL Deserve to win Deserve to win · DAL takes the lead, 65–35%
STL had led since 10:02 of the 1st, by as much as 66%
2nd Period
10:50 STL No shift No shift · Neighbours, 33:20 on the bench
No shift after 19:37 of the 1st; 7 shifts (5:19) before that
3rd Period
12:40 STL No shift No shift · Kyrou, 16:15 on the bench
No shift after the end of the 2nd; 13 shifts (11:21) before that
18:53 STL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Binnington, down 4–3
With 1:07 left; DAL scored at 18:53 of the 3rd (4–3)

Shot map

DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ STL shoots
Nils Lundkvist: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:15) Jake Neighbours: wrist, 3 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 0:40) Sam Steel: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 1:39) Jake Neighbours: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:44) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:08) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:46) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:21) Justin Faulk: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:00) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 9:51) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 10:02) Jonatan Berggren: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:29) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:15) Dalibor Dvorsky: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:18) Sam Steel: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:27) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:16) Nils Lundkvist: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:23) Thomas Harley: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:48) Radek Faksa: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:04) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:14) Roope Hintz: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 14:28) Roope Hintz: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 14:45) Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:56) Jason Robertson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:35) Jason Robertson: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 15:47) Jason Robertson: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 16:00) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 17:00) Wyatt Johnston: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:27) Roope Hintz: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:45) Kyle Capobianco: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:30) Nils Lundkvist: wrist, 145 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 6:12) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:40) Colin Blackwell: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:45) Colin Blackwell: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:53) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 8:07) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 9:31) Jason Robertson: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:26) Nick Bjugstad: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:51) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:03) Jonatan Berggren: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:45) Sam Steel: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 15:33) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:13) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:22) Colton Parayko: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:30) Alexander Petrovic: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:04) Colin Blackwell: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 18:55) Colin Blackwell: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:57) Sam Steel: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 19:15) Thomas Harley: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:20) Colton Parayko: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:56) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:21) Colton Parayko: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:11) Matt Duchene: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:29) Robby Fabbri: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 2:49) Mathieu Joseph: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:41) Matt Duchene: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 10:54) Sam Steel: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:55) Colton Parayko: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:34) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 11:42) Jason Robertson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:15) Mavrik Bourque: between-legs, 8 ft, xG 0.28 (P3 12:18) Cam Fowler: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:48) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:55) Alexey Toropchenko: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:47) Mikko Rantanen: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:14) Justin Hryckowian: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:15) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:23) Nick Bjugstad: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 16:32) Colton Parayko: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:24) Roope Hintz: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 17:58) Matt Duchene: GOAL, tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 3:20) Matt Duchene: GOAL, backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:00) Roope Hintz: GOAL, slap, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 18:06) Robby Fabbri: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 3:15) Brayden Schenn: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:22) Brayden Schenn: GOAL, wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 15:50) Thomas Harley: GOAL, wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:53)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
96 Mikko Rantanen 011 0 30.10 1119:44
21 Jason Robertson 022 -1 90.48 1019:29
53 Wyatt Johnston 011 +1 50.25 0218:40
22 Mavrik Bourque 000 0 10.28 1316:29
24 Roope Hintz 101 -1 50.50 1016:07
49 Justin Hryckowian 000 +1 10.02 0014:52
18 Sam Steel 011 +1 50.46 1014:10
95 Matt Duchene 202 +1 50.38 0013:32
12 Radek Faksa 000 -2 10.01 1211:51
10 Oskar Bäck 000 -2 00.00 0011:14
14 Jamie Benn 000 +1 00.00 0011:04
15 Colin Blackwell 000 -2 40.21 4110:08
Defense
4 Miro Heiskanen 011 +1 30.07 1127:10
23 Esa Lindell 000 0 40.00 0226:31
55 Thomas Harley 112 0 40.07 1322:11
5 Nils Lundkvist 000 0 30.01 0118:07
36 Alexander Petrovic 000 -1 30.01 0212:25
20 Kyle Capobianco 000 -2 20.02 0210:25
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Oettinger 26323 .885 2.09 -0.91

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Pavel Buchnevich 000 0 20.10 0420:55
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 022 +3 90.43 4020:32
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 011 +2 40.13 3019:22
29 Jonatan Berggren 000 -1 20.02 1019:21
10 Brayden Schenn 202 +2 50.27 6118:05
21 Robby Fabbri 101 +1 20.25 5016:30
21 Mathieu Joseph 000 -2 10.05 5113:39
72 Nick Bjugstad 000 -1 50.12 2012:50
26 Nathan Walker 000 0 00.00 4011:27
25 Jordan Kyrou 000 0 40.44 0011:21
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 -1 10.03 5211:16
63 Jake Neighbours 000 0 20.16 1105:19
Defense
6 Philip Broberg 000 +1 20.00 2224:54
55 Colton Parayko 000 0 70.06 3323:27
72 Justin Faulk 011 +2 10.01 0121:44
17 Cam Fowler 000 -1 50.01 1120:07
23 Logan Mailloux 000 -1 30.00 1014:16
75 Tyler Tucker 011 +1 20.00 2012:45
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jordan Binnington 24420 .833 2.87 -1.13

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
95 Matt Duchene C +1.89 +1.50 +0.24 +0.30 -0.15 +0.02 -0.02 — 13:32
53 Wyatt Johnston C +1.36 +0.70 +0.17 +0.13 +0.30 -0.03 +0.10 — 18:40
55 Thomas Harley D +1.23 +1.45 +0.04 -0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 22:11
21 Jason Robertson L +1.16 +1.25 +0.31 -0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 19:29
18 Sam Steel C +1.07 +0.55 +0.30 +0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:10
4 Miro Heiskanen D +0.93 +0.55 +0.04 +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 27:10
24 Roope Hintz C +0.88 +0.75 +0.33 -0.26 0.00 +0.06 0.00 — 16:07
96 Mikko Rantanen R +0.87 +0.70 +0.06 +0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 19:44
49 Justin Hryckowian C +0.22 0.00 +0.01 +0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:52
14 Jamie Benn L +0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:04
5 Nils Lundkvist D +0.04 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:07
15 Colin Blackwell C -0.05 0.00 +0.14 -0.35 +0.15 -0.03 +0.05 — 10:08
22 Mavrik Bourque C -0.13 0.00 +0.18 -0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 16:29
23 Esa Lindell D -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 26:31
28 Alexander Petrovic D -0.17 0.00 +0.01 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 12:25
20 Kyle Capobianco D -0.41 0.00 +0.01 -0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 10:25
10 Oskar Bäck C -0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:14
12 Radek Faksa C -0.57 0.00 +0.01 -0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 11:51
29 Jake Oettinger G -0.91 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.91 59:51

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R +2.34 +1.40 +0.28 +0.68 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:32
10 Brayden Schenn C +2.15 +1.50 +0.18 +0.43 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 18:05
72 Justin Faulk D +1.56 +0.70 +0.01 +0.84 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:44
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R +1.06 +0.55 +0.08 +0.57 -0.15 +0.02 -0.02 — 19:22
75 Tyler Tucker D +1.02 +0.55 0.00 +0.62 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:45
9 Robby Fabbri C +0.72 +0.75 +0.16 -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:30
25 Jordan Kyrou R +0.70 0.00 +0.28 +0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 11:21
63 Jake Neighbours L +0.40 0.00 +0.10 +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 5:19
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +0.28 0.00 +0.07 +0.04 0.00 -0.03 +0.20 — 20:55
23 Logan Mailloux D +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:16
26 Nathan Walker L +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.05 0.00 +0.02 +0.02 — 11:27
13 Alexey Toropchenko R +0.08 0.00 +0.02 -0.03 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 11:16
6 Philip Broberg D -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 24:54
17 Cam Fowler D -0.06 0.00 +0.01 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:07
29 Jonatan Berggren R -0.16 0.00 +0.01 -0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:21
77 Nick Bjugstad C -0.17 0.00 +0.08 -0.20 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 12:50
55 Colton Parayko D -0.19 0.00 +0.04 -0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 23:27
71 Mathieu Joseph R -0.26 0.00 +0.03 -0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:39
50 Jordan Binnington G -1.13 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.13 58:53

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.