Winnipeg JetsWPG 1–4 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Thursday, January 29, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Winnipeg JetsWPG 010 1 24
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 121 4 37

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
14:58 TBL Dominic James (5) Darren Raddysh (31), J.J. Moser (13) · snap xG 0.14 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:37 TBL Darren Raddysh (15) Yanni Gourde (13), Zemgus Girgensons (6) · slap xG 0.04 0–2 ▶
12:25 WPG Kyle Connor (24) Dylan Samberg (9), Mark Scheifele (38) · tip-in xG 0.04 1–2 ▶
15:17 TBL Yanni Gourde (7) Nikita Kucherov (55), Darren Raddysh (32) · deflected xG 0.10 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
18:52 TBL Nikita Kucherov (27)EN Yanni Gourde (14), Zemgus Girgensons (7) · wrist xG 0.91 1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WPG 37%Deserve to win63% TBL
WPGTBL
1.96Expected goals3.57
1Goals (no shootout)4
1.71Expected goals, 5 on 52.03
46Shot attempts61
37Unblocked attempts48
24Shots on goal37

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
0:50 TBL No shift No shift · Kucherov, 10:50 on the bench
No shift from 10:47 of the 1st to 1:37 of the 2nd; 3 shifts (1:54) before that
3rd Period
17:16 WPG Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Hellebuyck, down 3–1
With 2:44 left; TBL scored at 18:52 of the 3rd (1–4)

Shot map

WPG shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots
Elias Salomonsson: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:13) J.J. Moser: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 0:44) Pontus Holmberg: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 1:00) Elias Salomonsson: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 1:34) Declan Carlile: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:46) Declan Carlile: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:58) Zemgus Girgensons: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 3:03) Adam Lowry: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:26) Elias Salomonsson: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:34) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:05) Morgan Barron: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 5:24) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:51) Vladislav Namestnikov: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 6:43) Ryan McDonagh: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:32) Ryan McDonagh: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:43) Cole Perfetti: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:54) Kyle Connor: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:24) Josh Morrissey: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:30) Anthony Cirelli: backhand, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:59) Yanni Gourde: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:11) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:09) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:21) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 14:00) Adam Lowry: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 14:28) Tanner Pearson: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:32) Cole Koepke: bat, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:33) Cole Koepke: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:35) Adam Lowry: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:59) Logan Stanley: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:56) Dominic James: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 0:17) Ryan McDonagh: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:11) Elias Salomonsson: snap, 177 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:20) Darren Raddysh: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:47) Oliver Bjorkstrand: slap, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:48) Jake Guentzel: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 3:51) Kyle Connor: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 4:02) Erik Cernak: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:50) Elias Salomonsson: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:04) Max Crozier: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:06) Dylan Samberg: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:39) Morgan Barron: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:35) Nino Niederreiter: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 10:06) Kyle Connor: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:18) Ryan McDonagh: snap, 161 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:40) Darren Raddysh: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:53) Yanni Gourde: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:04) Declan Carlile: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:25) Max Crozier: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:31) Declan Carlile: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:41) Elias Salomonsson: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:58) Kyle Connor: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 19:06) Dominic James: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 0:17) Nick Paul: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:02) Cole Perfetti: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:34) Cole Koepke: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:39) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:25) Gage Goncalves: slap, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 4:14) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 175 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:41) Cole Perfetti: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 5:59) Kyle Connor: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:23) Nick Paul: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:33) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:34) Pontus Holmberg: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 9:55) Brandon Hagel: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 11:05) Gage Goncalves: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:26) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 175 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:36) J.J. Moser: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:49) J.J. Moser: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:53) Anthony Cirelli: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 13:59) Nick Paul: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:17) Declan Carlile: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:33) Erik Cernak: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:22) Dylan DeMelo: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:43) Darren Raddysh: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:58) Morgan Barron: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 16:07) Elias Salomonsson: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:10) Elias Salomonsson: snap, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:19) Pontus Holmberg: slap, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 16:56) Gabriel Vilardi: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 17:08) Kyle Connor: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 17:12) Dominic James: GOAL, snap, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 14:58) Darren Raddysh: GOAL, slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:37) Kyle Connor: GOAL, tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:25) Yanni Gourde: GOAL, deflected, 19 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:17) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.91 (P3 18:52)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
81 Kyle Connor 101 -1 70.55 0022:28
55 Mark Scheifele 011 -1 00.00 2121:20
13 Gabriel Vilardi 000 -1 10.22 1020:06
9 Alex Iafallo 000 -2 00.00 1015:55
19 Jonathan Toews 000 -2 00.00 0115:29
91 Cole Perfetti 000 -2 50.14 2215:14
17 Adam Lowry 000 0 30.21 2114:25
7 Vladislav Namestnikov 000 -1 10.09 2013:25
62 Nino Niederreiter 000 0 10.12 2013:00
36 Morgan Barron 000 0 40.28 1011:39
45 Cole Koepke 000 0 30.09 3109:20
70 Tanner Pearson 000 0 10.01 2009:09
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 000 0 50.06 0126:35
54 Dylan Samberg 011 0 20.00 0021:26
2 Dylan DeMelo 000 0 10.01 2119:59
57 Elias Salomonsson 000 -1 100.17 3119:40
8 Logan Stanley 000 -3 20.01 0216:38
2 Luke Schenn 000 -2 00.00 6211:48
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck 36333 .917 2.67 -0.33

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
38 Brandon Hagel 000 0 20.08 0120:48
37 Yanni Gourde 123 +2 30.13 4018:40
28 Zemgus Girgensons 022 +1 10.08 1216:51
71 Anthony Cirelli 000 0 30.23 1016:26
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 0 50.31 0015:53
86 Nikita Kucherov 112 +2 51.06 0115:22
59 Jake Guentzel 000 +2 50.25 0015:00
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 0 10.03 1012:58
20 Nick Paul 000 0 50.15 2012:04
17 Dominic James 101 +2 30.29 1011:30
93 Gage Goncalves 000 +1 20.26 1010:40
37 Jack Finley 000 0 00.00 2010:15
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 123 +3 60.18 0023:43
90 J.J. Moser 011 +3 30.14 0021:58
27 Ryan McDonagh 000 0 40.11 0320:37
24 Max Crozier 000 0 20.04 1018:43
81 Erik Cernak 000 0 40.09 3217:52
72 Declan Carlile 000 0 70.14 1015:13
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 24123 .958 1.96 +0.96

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
81 Kyle Connor L +1.22 +0.75 +0.36 +0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 22:28
55 Mark Scheifele C +0.81 +0.55 0.00 +0.08 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 21:20
36 Morgan Barron C +0.53 0.00 +0.18 +0.38 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 11:39
13 Gabriel Vilardi C +0.53 0.00 +0.14 +0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:06
44 Josh Morrissey D +0.42 0.00 +0.04 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 26:35
2 Dylan DeMelo D +0.36 0.00 +0.01 +0.50 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 19:59
54 Dylan Samberg D +0.25 +0.70 0.00 -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:26
17 Adam Lowry C +0.01 0.00 +0.13 -0.20 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 14:25
45 Cole Koepke L -0.02 0.00 +0.06 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:20
70 Tanner Pearson L -0.06 0.00 +0.01 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:09
7 Vladislav Namestnikov C -0.13 0.00 +0.06 -0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 13:25
91 Cole Perfetti C -0.14 0.00 +0.09 -0.30 0.00 -0.01 +0.08 — 15:14
62 Nino Niederreiter R -0.16 0.00 +0.08 -0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:00
57 Elias Salomonsson D -0.23 0.00 +0.11 -0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:40
64 Logan Stanley D -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 16:38
37 Connor Hellebuyck G -0.33 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.33 58:24
5 Luke Schenn D -0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 11:48
9 Alex Iafallo L -0.74 0.00 0.00 -0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:55
19 Jonathan Toews C -0.76 0.00 0.00 -0.78 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 15:29

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
43 Darren Raddysh D +2.20 +2.00 +0.11 +0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:43
86 Nikita Kucherov R +1.98 +1.45 +0.69 -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 15:22
17 Dominic James C +1.81 +0.75 +0.19 +0.93 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 11:30
37 Yanni Gourde C +1.79 +2.15 +0.08 -0.41 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 18:40
59 Jake Guentzel C +1.27 0.00 +0.16 +1.08 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 15:00
93 Gage Goncalves C +1.13 0.00 +0.17 +0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:40
28 Zemgus Girgensons C +0.97 +1.10 +0.05 -0.29 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 16:51
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G +0.96 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.96 59:27
90 J.J. Moser D +0.64 +0.55 +0.09 +0.17 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 21:58
67 Declan Carlile D +0.31 0.00 +0.09 +0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 15:13
27 Ryan McDonagh D +0.30 0.00 +0.07 +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 20:37
24 Max Crozier D +0.30 0.00 +0.03 +0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:43
81 Erik Cernak D +0.25 0.00 +0.06 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:52
38 Brandon Hagel L +0.25 0.00 +0.05 -0.01 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 20:48
71 Anthony Cirelli C +0.15 0.00 +0.15 -0.05 0.00 +0.03 +0.02 — 16:26
20 Nick Paul L +0.06 0.00 +0.10 -0.04 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 12:04
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R -0.09 0.00 +0.02 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:58
62 Jack Finley C -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 10:15
29 Pontus Holmberg R -0.23 0.00 +0.20 -0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:53

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.