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Utah MammothUTA 4–5 Final Carolina HurricanesCAR

Thursday, January 29, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Utah MammothUTA 031 4 25
Carolina HurricanesCAR 113 5 33

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:04 CAR Andrei Svechnikov (19) Unassisted · snap xG 0.25 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:10 UTA Kailer Yamamoto (6) Jack McBain (12) · snap xG 0.12 1–1 ▶
8:24 UTA Kailer Yamamoto (7) Nick DeSimone (3), Michael Carcone (10) · wrist xG 0.34 2–1 ▶
17:36 CAR Shayne Gostisbehere (7)PP Andrei Svechnikov (26), Seth Jarvis (17) · slap xG 0.04 2–2 ▶
17:55 UTA JJ Peterka (19) Barrett Hayton (11) · snap xG 0.05 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
7:11 UTA Michael Carcone (11) Jack McBain (13), Kailer Yamamoto (7) · wrist xG 0.18 4–2 ▶
18:01 CAR Andrei Svechnikov (20)PP Shayne Gostisbehere (27), Nikolaj Ehlers (27) · snap xG 0.16 4–3 ▶
18:33 CAR Shayne Gostisbehere (8) Jackson Blake (16), Jaccob Slavin (3) · snap xG 0.08 4–4 ▶
19:30 CAR Jordan Staal (12) Jordan Martinook (10), Jalen Chatfield (12) · tip-in xG 0.46 4–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

UTA 35%Deserve to win65% CAR
UTACAR
2.88Expected goals3.84
4Goals (no shootout)5
2.66Expected goals, 5 on 52.78
43Shot attempts70
35Unblocked attempts51
25Shots on goal33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
17:22 CAR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Bussi, down 4–2
With 2:38 left; CAR scored at 18:01 of the 3rd (4–3)

Shot map

UTA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CAR shoots
Sebastian Aho: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:25) Daniil But: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:36) Brandon Tanev: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:40) Jalen Chatfield: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 3:02) Daniil But: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:11) Daniil But: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:13) Jordan Martinook: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:47) Jesperi Kotkaniemi: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 5:24) Logan Stankoven: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 5:44) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:41) Seth Jarvis: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 6:46) Ian Cole: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 6:58) Sean Walker: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:37) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:58) Barrett Hayton: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:14) Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:28) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 86 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:32) Shayne Gostisbehere: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:22) Barrett Hayton: deflected, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:20) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 17:47) Kailer Yamamoto: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:17) Kailer Yamamoto: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:33) Jack McBain: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:45) Michael Carcone: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:46) Sebastian Aho: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 0:10) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 1:10) Shayne Gostisbehere: snap, 136 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:27) Ian Cole: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:26) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:18) Seth Jarvis: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:46) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:56) Kevin Stenlund: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 4:49) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:04) Lawson Crouse: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 5:06) Clayton Keller: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:30) Lawson Crouse: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:45) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:03) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:26) Logan Stankoven: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 7:20) Nick DeSimone: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 8:22) Clayton Keller: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:49) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:45) Liam O'Brien: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:23) Jaccob Slavin: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:36) Sebastian Aho: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:45) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 14:19) Taylor Hall: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 15:53) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:50) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 75 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 17:24) William Carrier: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 18:03) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:10) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:05) Jalen Chatfield: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:59) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 6:00) Kailer Yamamoto: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 6:17) Kailer Yamamoto: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:31) Alexander Nikishin: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:55) Sean Walker: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:29) Jordan Staal: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 7:54) JJ Peterka: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 8:24) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:00) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:04) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:05) Barrett Hayton: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:55) Barrett Hayton: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.35 (P3 11:58) Jalen Chatfield: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:09) Shayne Gostisbehere: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:55) Seth Jarvis: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 15:17) Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 15:27) Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:50) Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:59) Jackson Blake: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:12) Jalen Chatfield: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:57) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 18:59) Jordan Martinook: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:28) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:46) Jalen Chatfield: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:55) Andrei Svechnikov: GOAL, snap, 18 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 3:04) Kailer Yamamoto: GOAL, snap, 37 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 4:10) Kailer Yamamoto: GOAL, wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.34 (P2 8:24) Shayne Gostisbehere: GOAL, slap, 52 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:36) JJ Peterka: GOAL, snap, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:55) Michael Carcone: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 7:11) Andrei Svechnikov: GOAL, snap, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 18:01) Shayne Gostisbehere: GOAL, snap, 57 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:33) Jordan Staal: GOAL, tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.46 (P3 19:30)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
67 Lawson Crouse 000 -2 20.22 7119:50
8 Nick Schmaltz 000 -1 30.21 1019:14
9 Clayton Keller 000 -2 30.07 0018:11
22 Jack McBain 022 +2 10.06 3117:21
82 Kevin Stenlund 000 -1 10.12 1116:10
10 JJ Peterka 101 +1 30.21 0015:43
27 Barrett Hayton 011 +1 50.54 0014:01
53 Michael Carcone 112 +2 20.22 4012:52
50 Daniil But 000 +1 40.08 1112:44
56 Kailer Yamamoto 213 +2 60.75 0011:25
38 Liam O'Brien 000 0 10.01 4010:50
13 Brandon Tanev 000 0 10.03 2207:25
Defense
98 Mikhail Sergachev 000 +1 50.07 0024:29
6 John Marino 000 -1 00.00 0221:42
88 Nate Schmidt 000 -1 10.00 4320:44
5 Sean Durzi 000 +1 20.00 1319:32
28 Ian Cole 000 +1 20.10 0317:57
57 Nick DeSimone 011 +1 10.19 0111:19
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Karel Vejmelka 33528 .848 3.84 -1.16

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Sebastian Aho 000 +2 60.32 3021:15
37 Andrei Svechnikov 213 +1 50.56 2019:59
24 Seth Jarvis 011 +1 40.29 4019:50
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 011 +1 60.06 0017:56
53 Jackson Blake 011 -1 20.12 0115:46
11 Jordan Staal 101 +1 30.62 1015:35
22 Logan Stankoven 000 -2 40.40 1115:18
48 Jordan Martinook 011 0 40.29 1114:48
71 Taylor Hall 000 -1 20.17 1014:29
77 Mark Jankowski 000 -1 00.00 0010:39
28 William Carrier 000 -2 10.18 0009:56
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi 000 -1 20.14 2009:26
Defense
4 Shayne Gostisbehere 213 -1 70.33 0020:24
5 Jalen Chatfield 011 +1 100.24 1119:56
74 Jaccob Slavin 011 +2 10.01 0219:28
19 K'Andre Miller 000 -1 50.03 2018:34
26 Sean Walker 000 -1 40.03 2217:13
21 Alexander Nikishin 000 -2 40.04 3016:27
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Brandon Bussi 25421 .840 2.88 -1.12

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
56 Kailer Yamamoto R +3.22 +2.05 +0.49 +0.67 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 11:25
53 Michael Carcone L +1.75 +1.30 +0.14 +0.34 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 12:52
22 Jack McBain C +1.71 +1.40 +0.04 +0.23 0.00 +0.05 -0.01 — 17:21
27 Barrett Hayton C +1.59 +0.70 +0.35 +0.81 -0.30 +0.03 0.00 — 14:01
57 Nick DeSimone D +1.56 +0.70 +0.12 +0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:19
77 JJ Peterka R +0.99 +0.75 +0.14 -0.04 +0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 15:43
28 Ian Cole D +0.98 0.00 +0.06 +0.84 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 17:57
19 Daniil But L +0.47 0.00 +0.05 +0.45 0.00 -0.01 -0.03 — 12:44
50 Sean Durzi D +0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 19:32
13 Brandon Tanev L +0.05 0.00 +0.02 -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 7:25
9 Clayton Keller R -0.10 0.00 +0.05 -0.16 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 18:11
98 Mikhail Sergachev D -0.14 0.00 +0.04 0.00 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 24:29
38 Liam O'Brien C -0.15 0.00 +0.01 -0.13 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 10:50
88 Nate Schmidt D -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 20:44
82 Kevin Stenlund C -0.37 0.00 +0.08 -0.30 -0.15 -0.05 +0.05 — 16:10
6 John Marino D -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:42
67 Lawson Crouse L -0.51 0.00 +0.14 -0.82 +0.15 -0.01 +0.03 — 19:50
8 Nick Schmaltz C -0.63 0.00 +0.14 -0.57 -0.15 -0.05 0.00 — 19:14
70 Karel Vejmelka G -1.16 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.16 60:00

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
37 Andrei Svechnikov R +3.41 +2.20 +0.37 +0.99 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:59
5 Jalen Chatfield D +2.22 +0.55 +0.16 +1.49 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:56
74 Jaccob Slavin D +2.20 +0.55 +0.01 +1.53 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 19:28
24 Seth Jarvis C +1.67 +0.55 +0.19 +0.93 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 19:50
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D +1.55 +2.20 +0.21 -0.88 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 20:24
11 Jordan Staal C +1.47 +0.75 +0.40 +0.34 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 15:35
48 Jordan Martinook L +1.39 +0.70 +0.19 +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:48
20 Sebastian Aho C +1.35 0.00 +0.21 +0.93 +0.15 +0.09 -0.02 — 21:15
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +1.28 +0.55 +0.04 +0.41 +0.30 0.00 -0.02 — 17:56
53 Jackson Blake R -0.07 +0.70 +0.08 -0.86 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 15:46
22 Logan Stankoven C -0.25 0.00 +0.26 -0.74 +0.15 +0.01 +0.07 — 15:18
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C -0.51 0.00 +0.09 -0.70 +0.15 -0.01 -0.04 — 9:26
28 William Carrier L -0.52 0.00 +0.12 -0.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:56
26 Sean Walker D -0.63 0.00 +0.02 -0.60 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 17:13
77 Mark Jankowski L -0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.70 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 10:39
19 K'Andre Miller D -0.80 0.00 +0.02 -0.77 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:34
71 Taylor Hall L -0.85 0.00 +0.11 -0.94 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:29
32 Brandon Bussi G -1.12 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.12 59:01
21 Alexander Nikishin D -1.13 0.00 +0.03 -1.10 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 16:27

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.