hockeystats.io

Florida PanthersFLA 4–5 Final St. Louis BluesSTL

Thursday, January 29, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 220 4 20
St. Louis BluesSTL 311 5 31

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:12 FLA A.J. Greer (11) Luke Kunin (2), Sandis Vilmanis (2) · wrist xG 0.38 1–0 ▶
4:46 STL Jake Neighbours (13) Pavel Buchnevich (20), Jordan Kyrou (14) · wrist xG 0.10 1–1 ▶
7:51 STL Jordan Kyrou (12) Philip Broberg (14) · wrist xG 0.19 1–2 ▶
9:22 FLA Sam Reinhart (27)PP Matthew Tkachuk (4), Uvis Balinskis (8) · wrist xG 0.48 2–2 ▶
14:27 STL Jonatan Berggren (6) Justin Faulk (15) · snap xG 0.15 2–3 ▶
2nd Period
0:41 STL Oskar Sundqvist (4) Justin Faulk (16) · slap xG 0.05 2–4 ▶
16:52 FLA Matthew Tkachuk (1) Eetu Luostarinen (17), Sam Bennett (23) · backhand xG 0.06 3–4 ▶
18:39 FLA Matthew Tkachuk (2)PP Sam Reinhart (25), Gustav Forsling (18) · wrist xG 0.15 4–4 ▶
3rd Period
19:51 STL Jimmy Snuggerud (8)PP Pavel Buchnevich (21), Jordan Kyrou (15) · snap xG 0.12 4–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 65%Deserve to win35% STL
FLASTL
3.50Expected goals2.59
4Goals (no shootout)5
1.25Expected goals, 5 on 51.38
58Shot attempts49
38Unblocked attempts41
20Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
14:27 FLA Goalie Goalie · Tarasov −2.2 goals saved
3 goals on 0.83 xG, 8 shots on goal
3rd Period
8:40 FLA No shift No shift · Marchand, 14:04 on the bench
No shift after 18:39 of the 2nd; 12 shifts (11:19) before that
19:51 FLA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Tarasov, down 5–4
With 0:09 left; STL scored at 19:51 of the 3rd (4–5)

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ STL shoots
Uvis Balinskis: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:31) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:42) Brad Marchand: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 2:35) A.J. Greer: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 3:09) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:58) Philip Broberg: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:01) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:10) Philip Broberg: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:36) Jeff Petry: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:43) Matthew Tkachuk: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 9:19) Cam Fowler: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:40) Colton Parayko: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 9:55) Uvis Balinskis: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:53) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 11:11) Cole Schwindt: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:30) Justin Faulk: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:52) Sam Bennett: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 15:14) Philip Broberg: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 16:51) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:59) Niko Mikkola: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:37) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:23) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 1:18) Brayden Schenn: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:20) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:23) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:43) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 4:07) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:53) Aaron Ekblad: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:02) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:34) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 7:06) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 7:24) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:36) Sam Reinhart: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 7:50) Justin Faulk: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 8:06) Justin Faulk: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:07) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:12) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 8:29) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:29) Matthew Tkachuk: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 8:40) Brad Marchand: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 8:55) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:10) Justin Faulk: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:57) Robby Fabbri: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:54) Justin Faulk: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:35) Uvis Balinskis: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:17) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:00) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:04) Colton Parayko: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 6:26) Alexey Toropchenko: backhand, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:26) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:30) Tyler Tucker: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:36) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:21) Uvis Balinskis: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:41) A.J. Greer: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:46) Justin Faulk: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:45) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 9:47) Luke Kunin: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 10:26) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 11:49) Cam Fowler: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 12:00) Robby Fabbri: wrist, 177 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:10) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:05) Logan Mailloux: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:49) A.J. Greer: wrist, 90 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:55) Justin Faulk: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:30) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:56) Colton Parayko: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:08) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:16) Carter Verhaeghe: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 17:55) Justin Faulk: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 18:30) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:00) A.J. Greer: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.38 (P1 3:12) Jake Neighbours: GOAL, wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 4:46) Jordan Kyrou: GOAL, wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 7:51) Sam Reinhart: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.48 (P1 9:22) Jonatan Berggren: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 14:27) Oskar Sundqvist: GOAL, slap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 0:41) Matthew Tkachuk: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:52) Matthew Tkachuk: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 18:39) Jimmy Snuggerud: GOAL, snap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 19:51)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
19 Matthew Tkachuk 213 0 90.59 0023:41
13 Sam Reinhart 112 -2 50.89 4222:52
9 Sam Bennett 011 -1 30.13 1022:09
17 Evan Rodrigues 000 -1 30.13 1018:41
23 Carter Verhaeghe 000 -2 20.07 0016:42
11 Mackie Samoskevich 000 0 60.30 1115:30
27 Eetu Luostarinen 011 0 20.05 1013:23
63 Brad Marchand 000 -1 20.27 0011:19
95 Sandis Vilmanis 011 +1 00.00 0008:32
71 Luke Kunin 011 +1 30.10 1008:21
18 A.J. Greer 101 +1 40.54 1007:27
79 Cole Schwindt 000 -1 10.11 0006:57
Defense
42 Gustav Forsling 011 -2 50.04 0226:58
5 Aaron Ekblad 000 -2 40.03 2123:10
26 Uvis Balinskis 011 -2 60.10 3120:43
77 Niko Mikkola 000 0 20.15 1118:57
2 Jeff Petry 000 +1 10.02 0011:41
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Daniil Tarasov 31526 .839 2.59 -2.41

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Pavel Buchnevich 022 +1 40.38 0021:57
25 Jordan Kyrou 123 +1 60.32 0117:51
63 Jake Neighbours 101 +2 10.10 2117:30
10 Brayden Schenn 000 0 20.11 3016:48
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 101 +1 70.38 0014:11
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 000 0 10.02 2113:31
70 Oskar Sundqvist 101 +1 10.05 1112:55
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 0 10.02 1111:52
26 Nathan Walker 000 +1 00.00 5011:33
29 Jonatan Berggren 101 0 10.15 1011:11
21 Robby Fabbri 000 -1 20.04 3108:51
72 Nick Bjugstad 000 -1 00.00 1007:39
Defense
72 Justin Faulk 022 -1 80.43 0225:11
6 Philip Broberg 011 +3 40.16 0223:52
55 Colton Parayko 000 +1 30.19 3321:41
17 Cam Fowler 000 0 20.15 0219:53
75 Tyler Tucker 000 0 30.06 2113:45
23 Logan Mailloux 000 +1 30.03 2112:06
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joel Hofer 20416 .800 3.50 -0.50

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
19 Matthew Tkachuk L +2.78 +2.20 +0.38 +0.04 +0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 23:41
10 A.J. Greer L +1.67 +0.75 +0.35 +0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:27
71 Luke Kunin C +1.28 +0.70 +0.07 +0.55 0.00 -0.04 0.00 — 8:21
13 Sam Reinhart C +1.27 +1.45 +0.58 -0.87 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 22:52
26 Uvis Balinskis D +1.11 +0.55 +0.06 +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:43
27 Eetu Luostarinen C +1.08 +0.70 +0.03 +0.18 +0.15 +0.02 0.00 — 13:23
95 Sandis Vilmanis L +1.06 +0.55 0.00 +0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:32
77 Niko Mikkola D +0.80 0.00 +0.10 +0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:57
9 Sam Bennett C +0.32 +0.55 +0.08 -0.16 -0.15 +0.05 -0.06 — 22:09
63 Brad Marchand L +0.13 0.00 +0.17 -0.20 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:19
22 Tobias Bjornfot D +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:28
79 Cole Schwindt R +0.08 0.00 +0.07 -0.13 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 6:57
11 Mackie Samoskevich R +0.03 0.00 +0.19 -0.04 -0.15 -0.01 +0.03 — 15:30
17 Evan Rodrigues C +0.02 0.00 +0.08 -0.55 +0.45 +0.02 +0.02 — 18:41
2 Jeff Petry D -0.07 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:41
42 Gustav Forsling D -0.41 +0.55 +0.02 -1.06 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 26:58
23 Carter Verhaeghe C -0.77 0.00 +0.05 -0.79 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:42
5 Aaron Ekblad D -0.88 0.00 +0.02 -0.80 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 23:10
40 Daniil Tarasov G -2.41 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.41 59:44

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
25 Jordan Kyrou R +3.00 +1.85 +0.21 +0.89 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:51
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +2.38 +1.40 +0.24 +0.78 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 21:57
6 Philip Broberg D +1.84 +0.70 +0.10 +0.96 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 23:52
63 Jake Neighbours L +1.82 +0.75 +0.06 +0.77 +0.15 -0.01 +0.09 — 17:30
55 Colton Parayko D +1.11 0.00 +0.12 +0.71 +0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 21:41
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R +1.03 +0.75 +0.24 -0.09 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:11
72 Justin Faulk D +0.95 +1.40 +0.28 -0.83 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 25:11
70 Oskar Sundqvist C +0.79 +0.75 +0.04 +0.15 -0.15 -0.04 +0.05 — 12:55
23 Logan Mailloux D +0.35 0.00 +0.02 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 12:06
29 Jonatan Berggren R +0.28 +0.75 +0.10 -0.54 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 11:11
13 Alexey Toropchenko R +0.08 0.00 +0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 11:52
26 Nathan Walker L +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.23 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 11:33
10 Brayden Schenn C +0.03 0.00 +0.07 +0.12 -0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 16:48
17 Cam Fowler D +0.01 0.00 +0.10 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:53
75 Tyler Tucker D -0.32 0.00 +0.04 -0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:45
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R -0.34 0.00 +0.01 -0.06 -0.30 0.00 +0.01 — 13:31
30 Joel Hofer G -0.35 0.00 — — +0.15 — — -0.50 60:00
9 Robby Fabbri C -0.55 0.00 +0.02 -0.62 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:51
77 Nick Bjugstad C -0.95 0.00 0.00 -0.69 -0.30 +0.04 0.00 — 7:39

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.