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Dallas StarsDAL 5–4 Final/SO Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

Thursday, January 29, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Dallas StarsDAL 13002 5 27
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 01300 4 21

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:37 DAL Matt Duchene (8) Sam Steel (14), Jamie Benn (8) · wrist xG 0.04 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
4:07 VGK Keegan Kolesar (5) Mitch Marner (41) · wrist xG 0.20 1–1 ▶
8:46 DAL Mavrik Bourque (9) Roope Hintz (27), Jason Robertson (33) · snap xG 0.21 2–1 ▶
14:16 DAL Mavrik Bourque (10) Jamie Benn (9), Sam Steel (15) · snap xG 0.12 3–1 ▶
16:43 DAL Wyatt Johnston (28) Mikko Rantanen (46) · snap xG 0.33 4–1 ▶
3rd Period
4:04 VGK Reilly Smith (9)SH Keegan Kolesar (9) · wrist xG 0.18 4–2 ▶
13:54 VGK Ivan Barbashev (13) Rasmus Andersson (22), Mark Stone (33) · wrist xG 0.09 4–3 ▶
19:11 VGK Mitch Marner (13) Tomas Hertl (25) · snap xG 0.05 4–4 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
DAL Jason Robertson vs Adin Hill Goal
VGK Pavel Dorofeyev vs Jake Oettinger Saved
DAL Matt Duchene vs Adin Hill Missed
VGK Jack Eichel vs Jake Oettinger Saved
DAL Mikko Rantanen vs Adin Hill Goal

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DAL 64%Deserve to win36% VGK
DALVGK
3.75Expected goals2.52
4Goals (no shootout)4
2.62Expected goals, 5 on 51.81
56Shot attempts61
43Unblocked attempts37
27Shots on goal21

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
10:57 DAL Deserve to win Deserve to win · DAL takes the lead, 60–40%
VGK had led since 0:48 of the 1st, by as much as 65%
3rd Period
18:16 VGK Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Hill, down 4–3
With 1:44 left; VGK scored at 19:11 of the 3rd (4–4)

Shot map

DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VGK shoots
Braeden Bowman: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 0:48) Jamie Benn: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 1:51) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:07) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 4:55) Sam Steel: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:34) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:48) Ivan Barbashev: backhand, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:53) Ivan Barbashev: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 6:02) Keegan Kolesar: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:31) Thomas Harley: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 8:03) Roope Hintz: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:04) Roope Hintz: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:17) Mavrik Bourque: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:45) Kyle Capobianco: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:00) Sam Steel: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:20) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 17:19) Mitch Marner: tip-in, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:24) Ben Hutton: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:36) Reilly Smith: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:01) Thomas Harley: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:20) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:53) Esa Lindell: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 19:12) Roope Hintz: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:15) Reilly Smith: wrist, 95 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:57) Justin Hryckowian: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 0:44) Esa Lindell: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:11) Mitch Marner: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:27) Rasmus Andersson: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:43) Ben Hutton: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:08) Ivan Barbashev: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:11) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:24) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:33) Jason Robertson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:55) Miro Heiskanen: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:14) Esa Lindell: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:32) Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:42) Justin Hryckowian: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 6:47) Jason Robertson: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:11) Jason Robertson: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 10:57) Jeremy Lauzon: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 12:19) Mark Stone: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:27) Radek Faksa: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:07) Jamie Benn: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 14:09) Jack Eichel: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 14:42) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:49) Nils Lundkvist: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:37) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:40) Noah Hanifin: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:57) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 0:14) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:23) Keegan Kolesar: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:38) Reilly Smith: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:44) Radek Faksa: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:50) Esa Lindell: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:54) Braeden Bowman: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:10) Justin Hryckowian: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:31) Mark Stone: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:51) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:13) Kyle Capobianco: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:54) Shea Theodore: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:12) Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 16:06) Mikko Rantanen: bat, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:07) Rasmus Andersson: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:22) Esa Lindell: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:19) Jason Robertson: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:55) Pavel Dorofeyev: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 18:37) Matt Duchene: wrist, 117 ft, xG 0.43 (P3 19:03) Sam Steel: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 0:17) Mitch Marner: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 1:30) Jason Robertson: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.20 (OT 1:57) Mavrik Bourque: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (OT 3:28) Mark Stone: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.21 (OT 4:39) Matt Duchene: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:37) Keegan Kolesar: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 4:07) Mavrik Bourque: GOAL, snap, 17 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 8:46) Mavrik Bourque: GOAL, snap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 14:16) Wyatt Johnston: GOAL, snap, 21 ft, xG 0.33 (P2 16:43) Reilly Smith: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 4:04) Ivan Barbashev: GOAL, wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 13:54) Mitch Marner: GOAL, snap, 62 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:11)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
96 Mikko Rantanen 011 -1 40.17 0122:11
53 Wyatt Johnston 101 -1 50.48 3120:39
21 Jason Robertson 011 -1 50.48 1018:48
95 Matt Duchene 101 0 30.47 1017:26
22 Mavrik Bourque 202 +1 50.48 1017:09
18 Sam Steel 022 +1 30.14 1116:15
24 Roope Hintz 011 -1 30.10 2015:20
49 Justin Hryckowian 000 0 30.40 5015:03
14 Jamie Benn 022 +1 20.38 1213:00
12 Radek Faksa 000 0 20.07 2112:14
10 Oskar Bäck 000 0 00.00 1012:01
73 Adam Erne 000 0 00.00 7010:43
Defense
4 Miro Heiskanen 000 -2 40.04 0126:50
55 Thomas Harley 000 0 40.14 1626:12
23 Esa Lindell 000 -3 50.34 1323:51
5 Nils Lundkvist 000 +2 20.05 1219:33
36 Alexander Petrovic 000 +2 00.00 1313:25
20 Kyle Capobianco 000 +2 60.01 0212:20
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Oettinger 21417 .810 2.52 -1.48

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Jack Eichel 000 +2 30.12 3022:48
93 Mitch Marner 112 0 50.14 1021:23
61 Mark Stone 011 +2 50.26 0120:09
49 Ivan Barbashev 101 0 60.35 3018:58
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 000 +1 10.10 0017:17
48 Tomas Hertl 011 -1 40.00 1015:17
55 Keegan Kolesar 112 -1 40.30 5114:38
19 Reilly Smith 101 -1 60.24 0014:24
10 Alexander Holtz 000 0 10.00 5013:11
42 Braeden Bowman 000 -1 30.43 0113:04
28 Tanner Laczynski 000 0 10.00 1109:43
29 Cole Reinhardt 000 0 00.00 3009:03
Defense
27 Shea Theodore 000 -1 20.02 0126:19
15 Noah Hanifin 000 +1 60.05 0123:51
4 Rasmus Andersson 011 0 70.20 0222:44
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 -1 30.26 3218:14
17 Ben Hutton 000 0 30.06 1015:50
6 Kaedan Korczak 000 0 10.00 0115:02
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Adin Hill 27423 .852 3.32 -0.68

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
22 Mavrik Bourque C +2.75 +1.50 +0.31 +0.92 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:09
18 Sam Steel C +2.01 +1.25 +0.09 +0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:15
14 Jamie Benn L +1.96 +1.25 +0.25 +0.39 0.00 +0.01 +0.06 — 13:00
96 Mikko Rantanen R +1.62 +0.70 +0.11 +0.48 +0.30 +0.01 +0.01 — 22:11
5 Nils Lundkvist D +1.50 0.00 +0.03 +1.37 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:33
53 Wyatt Johnston C +1.49 +0.75 +0.31 +0.35 0.00 -0.03 +0.11 — 20:39
55 Thomas Harley D +1.41 0.00 +0.09 +0.98 0.00 0.00 +0.34 — 26:12
95 Matt Duchene C +1.32 +0.75 +0.31 +0.27 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 17:26
24 Roope Hintz C +1.08 +0.70 +0.06 +0.30 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 15:20
21 Jason Robertson L +0.84 +0.55 +0.31 +0.17 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 18:48
28 Alexander Petrovic D +0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 13:25
20 Kyle Capobianco D +0.54 0.00 +0.01 +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 12:20
49 Justin Hryckowian C +0.49 0.00 +0.26 +0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:03
4 Miro Heiskanen D -0.10 0.00 +0.02 -0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 26:50
12 Radek Faksa C -0.10 0.00 +0.04 -0.12 0.00 -0.06 +0.03 — 12:14
10 Oskar Bäck C -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.12 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 12:01
73 Adam Erne L -0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:43
23 Esa Lindell D -0.22 0.00 +0.22 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 23:51
29 Jake Oettinger G -1.48 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.48 65:00

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
55 Keegan Kolesar R +1.32 +1.45 +0.19 -0.37 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 14:38
93 Mitch Marner R +1.11 +1.45 +0.09 -0.42 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 21:23
61 Mark Stone R +0.83 +0.55 +0.17 +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:09
6 Kaedan Korczak D +0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:02
4 Rasmus Andersson D +0.69 +0.70 +0.13 -0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 22:44
49 Ivan Barbashev L +0.64 +0.75 +0.23 -0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:58
17 Ben Hutton D +0.34 0.00 +0.04 +0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:50
19 Reilly Smith R +0.22 +0.75 +0.16 -0.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:24
15 Noah Hanifin D +0.20 0.00 +0.03 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:51
48 Tomas Hertl C +0.11 +0.70 0.00 -0.58 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 — 15:17
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +0.04 0.00 +0.07 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:17
42 Braeden Bowman R -0.16 0.00 +0.28 -0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:04
9 Jack Eichel C -0.18 0.00 +0.08 -0.08 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 22:48
23 Cole Reinhardt L -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:03
28 Tanner Laczynski C -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.32 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 9:43
26 Alexander Holtz R -0.52 0.00 0.00 -0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:11
33 Adin Hill G -0.68 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.68 64:05
5 Jeremy Lauzon D -0.96 0.00 +0.17 -1.20 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 18:14
27 Shea Theodore D -1.82 0.00 +0.01 -1.88 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 26:19

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.