hockeystats.io

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 2–5 Final Seattle KrakenSEA

Thursday, January 29, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 101 2 31
Seattle KrakenSEA 122 5 22

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:21 SEA Matty Beniers (14) Jared McCann (13), Jordan Eberle (18) · wrist xG 0.14 0–1 ▶
15:02 TOR Nick Robertson (12) Unassisted · slap xG 0.09 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
6:23 SEA Shane Wright (8) Jaden Schwartz (10), Adam Larsson (9) · backhand xG 0.07 1–2 ▶
6:54 SEA Brandon Montour (7) Frederick Gaudreau (11), Chandler Stephenson (19) · wrist xG 0.08 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
6:04 TOR Morgan Rielly (7)PP Max Domi (21) · wrist xG 0.03 2–3 ▶
8:32 SEA Shane Wright (9) Brandon Montour (15) · wrist xG 0.12 2–4 ▶
17:23 SEA Jared McCann (15)EN Jamie Oleksiak (6) · wrist xG 0.54 2–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 84%Deserve to win16% SEA
TORSEA
3.03Expected goals1.65
2Goals (no shootout)5
1.74Expected goals, 5 on 50.98
65Shot attempts38
50Unblocked attempts29
31Shots on goal22

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
4:20 SEA No shift No shift · Catton, 38:01 on the bench
No shift after 12:08 of the 1st; 4 shifts (3:12) before that
6:54 TOR Goalie Goalie · Stolarz −2.1 goals saved
3 goals on 0.85 xG, 15 shots on goal
19:30 TOR xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced SEA 1.07–0.00
In xG over 10 minutes, 10:00 of the 2nd to the end of the 2nd; neither team scored
3rd Period
16:00 TOR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Stolarz, down 4–2
With 4:00 left; SEA scored at 17:23 of the 3rd (2–5)

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SEA shoots
Berkly Catton: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 0:25) Steven Lorentz: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 2:23) Jake McCabe: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:34) Brandon Montour: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:24) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:35) Eeli Tolvanen: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:10) Brandon Montour: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:13) Auston Matthews: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:29) Matthew Knies: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 6:41) Auston Matthews: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:42) Frederick Gaudreau: wrist, 184 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:27) Nick Robertson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:17) Vince Dunn: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:06) Ryker Evans: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:28) Bobby McMann: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:25) Bobby McMann: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 11:28) Bobby McMann: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:29) Auston Matthews: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 11:43) Jake McCabe: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:25) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:34) Jaden Schwartz: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:49) Jaden Schwartz: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:50) Auston Matthews: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:18) Auston Matthews: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:27) Brandon Carlo: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:47) Ryan Winterton: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:23) Jamie Oleksiak: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:54) Chandler Stephenson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:05) Troy Stecher: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:01) Troy Stecher: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:03) Bobby McMann: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:13) Jacob Melanson: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:55) Ryan Winterton: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:56) Ryker Evans: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:55) Auston Matthews: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:41) Jaden Schwartz: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 6:21) Calle Jarnkrok: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:33) Eeli Tolvanen: wrist, 87 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:59) Matthew Knies: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:01) Jake McCabe: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:13) Jake McCabe: wrist, 159 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:54) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:32) Matias Maccelli: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 16:15) Nick Robertson: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:08) John Tavares: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 17:55) Matthew Knies: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 18:02) Max Domi: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:16) Matthew Knies: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 18:51) John Tavares: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 18:56) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:00) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:22) Jake McCabe: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:29) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:43) Bobby McMann: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:59) Eeli Tolvanen: tip-in, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:05) Adam Larsson: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:08) Brandon Carlo: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:25) Morgan Rielly: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:28) Calle Jarnkrok: tip-in, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:32) Nicolas Roy: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 4:49) Matthew Knies: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 5:49) John Tavares: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:50) Simon Benoit: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:00) Matty Beniers: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:35) Vince Dunn: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:06) Eeli Tolvanen: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:45) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:46) Nick Robertson: wrap-around, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:14) Jared McCann: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:48) Nick Robertson: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 16:11) John Tavares: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:50) Kaapo Kakko: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:54) Matty Beniers: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 1:21) Nick Robertson: GOAL, slap, 39 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 15:02) Shane Wright: GOAL, backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:23) Brandon Montour: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:54) Morgan Rielly: GOAL, wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:04) Shane Wright: GOAL, wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 8:32) Jared McCann: GOAL, wrist, 101 ft, xG 0.54 (P3 17:23)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 000 -1 80.33 0021:00
11 Max Domi 011 -1 30.06 0019:51
74 Bobby McMann 000 -1 60.40 2016:56
10 Nicolas Roy 000 -1 20.10 2016:52
14 Nick Robertson 101 0 70.28 1016:12
89 Matthew Knies 000 -4 60.68 0016:04
91 John Tavares 000 -3 40.40 1015:32
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 +1 20.08 0015:20
21 Scott Laughton 000 0 00.00 3012:53
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 10.10 0011:53
63 Matias Maccelli 000 -3 50.24 0011:10
53 Easton Cowan 000 -1 00.00 0009:44
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 000 0 60.06 1122:55
44 Morgan Rielly 101 -1 50.04 0222:53
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 -2 30.04 3022:36
25 Brandon Carlo 000 -2 30.06 3117:58
44 Simon Benoit 000 -1 10.04 3314:01
28 Troy Stecher 000 -1 30.13 1213:36
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Anthony Stolarz 21417 .810 1.12 -2.88

Seattle Kraken

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Frederick Gaudreau 011 +1 10.00 0220:11
9 Chandler Stephenson 011 +1 20.06 0019:40
17 Eeli Tolvanen 000 +1 70.14 1118:41
10 Matty Beniers 101 +1 40.15 0016:37
19 Jared McCann 112 +1 20.56 0116:12
51 Shane Wright 202 +2 20.19 0115:41
7 Jordan Eberle 011 +1 00.00 1014:48
84 Kaapo Kakko 000 +2 10.02 2014:34
26 Ryan Winterton 000 0 20.09 0013:32
63 Jacob Melanson 000 0 20.06 7013:01
71 Jaden Schwartz 011 +2 40.09 0012:28
27 Berkly Catton 000 0 10.05 0003:12
Defense
62 Brandon Montour 112 +4 40.11 2221:39
55 Ryan Lindgren 000 -1 00.00 0220:05
4 Jamie Oleksiak 011 +3 10.07 0220:01
29 Vince Dunn 000 +1 20.03 0019:14
6 Adam Larsson 011 +1 10.01 0018:33
41 Ryker Evans 000 0 20.04 0116:44
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joey Daccord 31229 .935 3.03 +1.03

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
89 Nick Robertson L +1.46 +0.75 +0.18 +0.40 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:12
11 Max Domi C +1.23 +0.70 +0.04 +0.50 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 19:51
74 Bobby McMann C +1.08 0.00 +0.26 +0.65 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 16:56
22 Jake McCabe D +1.07 0.00 +0.04 +0.96 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 22:55
44 Morgan Rielly D +1.01 +0.75 +0.03 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 22:53
34 Auston Matthews C +0.86 0.00 +0.22 +0.66 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:00
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.81 0.00 +0.03 +0.82 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:36
19 Calle Jarnkrok C +0.59 0.00 +0.05 +0.55 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 15:20
55 Nicolas Roy C +0.57 0.00 +0.07 +0.41 +0.15 -0.05 0.00 — 16:52
24 Scott Laughton C +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.09 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 12:53
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.03 0.00 +0.06 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:53
53 Easton Cowan R -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 9:44
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.23 0.00 +0.04 -0.15 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 17:58
2 Simon Benoit D -0.26 0.00 +0.03 -0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 14:01
28 Troy Stecher D -0.29 0.00 +0.09 -0.29 -0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 13:36
23 Matthew Knies L -0.47 0.00 +0.44 -0.86 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 16:04
63 Matias Maccelli L -0.52 0.00 +0.16 -0.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:10
91 John Tavares C -0.56 0.00 +0.26 -0.76 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 15:32
41 Anthony Stolarz G -2.88 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.88 58:34

Seattle Kraken

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
62 Brandon Montour D +2.20 +1.45 +0.07 +0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:39
51 Shane Wright C +1.82 +1.50 +0.12 +0.34 -0.15 -0.02 +0.03 — 15:41
19 Jared McCann L +1.33 +1.45 +0.37 -0.55 0.00 +0.03 +0.03 — 16:12
24 Jamie Oleksiak D +1.21 +0.70 +0.04 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:01
17 Jaden Schwartz L +1.06 +0.70 +0.06 +0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:28
35 Joey Daccord G +1.03 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.03 60:00
89 Frederick Gaudreau C +0.96 +0.70 0.00 +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 20:11
84 Kaapo Kakko R +0.38 0.00 +0.01 +0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:34
10 Matty Beniers C +0.30 +0.75 +0.10 -0.61 0.00 +0.04 +0.02 — 16:37
9 Chandler Stephenson C +0.28 +0.55 +0.04 -0.34 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 19:40
26 Ryan Winterton C +0.25 0.00 +0.06 +0.05 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:32
20 Eeli Tolvanen R +0.10 0.00 +0.09 -0.16 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 18:41
63 Jacob Melanson R +0.06 0.00 +0.04 +0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:01
6 Adam Larsson D +0.02 +0.55 +0.01 -0.32 -0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 18:33
7 Jordan Eberle R -0.06 +0.55 0.00 -0.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:48
41 Ryker Evans D -0.25 0.00 +0.02 -0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:44
27 Berkly Catton C -0.34 0.00 +0.03 -0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 3:12
55 Ryan Lindgren D -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 20:05
29 Vince Dunn D -0.62 0.00 +0.02 -0.49 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:14

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.