San Jose SharksSJS 2–3 Final Calgary FlamesCGY

Saturday, January 31, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
San Jose SharksSJS	1	1	0	2	25
Calgary FlamesCGY	1	1	1	3	42

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:11	SJS	Will Smith (16)PP Alexander Wennberg (26) · snap xG 0.19	1–0 ▶
14:44	CGY	Morgan Frost (12)PP Matt Coronato (15), Jonathan Huberdeau (15) · snap xG 0.41	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:21	SJS	Adam Gaudette (13) William Eklund (23), Michael Misa (6) · wrist xG 0.36	2–1 ▶
6:59	CGY	Matvei Gridin (2) Morgan Frost (15), MacKenzie Weegar (14) · snap xG 0.19	2–2 ▶
3rd Period
6:53	CGY	Joel Farabee (11)SH Mikael Backlund (21), Kevin Bahl (10) · backhand xG 0.17	2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

SJS 34%Deserve to win66% CGY

SJS		CGY
3.48	Expected goals	4.84
2	Goals (no shootout)	3
1.82	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.79
53	Shot attempts	82
35	Unblocked attempts	62
25	Shots on goal	42

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
1:21	SJS	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · SJS takes the lead, 65–35% CGY had led since 14:44 of the 1st, by as much as 65%
4:50	SJS	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced CGY 1.60–0.01 In xG over 10 minutes, 15:00 of the 1st to 5:00 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
15:00	CGY	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced SJS 1.10–0.05 In xG over 10 minutes, 5:00 to 15:00 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
1:01	CGY	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · CGY takes the lead, 61–39% SJS had led since 1:21 of the 2nd, by as much as 73%
5:20	CGY	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced SJS 1.50–0.25 In xG over 10 minutes, 17:00 of the 2nd to 7:00 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
18:26	SJS	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Nedeljkovic, down 3–2 With 1:34 left

Shot map

SJS shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CGY shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

San Jose Sharks

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
21	Alexander Wennberg	0	1	1	-1	6	0.65	1	1	24:30
71	Macklin Celebrini	0	0	0	-1	7	0.49	2	0	23:40
51	Collin Graf	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	0	0	19:09
2	Will Smith	1	0	1	-1	6	0.64	1	1	19:03
73	Tyler Toffoli	0	0	0	0	3	0.56	0	2	18:08
27	William Eklund	0	1	1	0	2	0.18	1	1	14:35
96	Philipp Kurashev	0	0	0	0	3	0.14	1	2	13:32
63	Zack Ostapchuk	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	11:38
23	Barclay Goodrow	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	1	1	10:23
81	Adam Gaudette	1	0	1	0	4	0.52	0	0	10:09
77	Michael Misa	0	1	1	0	3	0.05	0	0	10:02
75	Ryan Reaves	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	06:33
Defense
38	Mario Ferraro	0	0	0	0	4	0.05	1	3	19:37
3	John Klingberg	0	0	0	-2	2	0.11	0	1	19:36
6	Sam Dickinson	0	0	0	+1	2	0.00	0	2	19:24
73	Vincent Desharnais	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	19:01
9	Dmitry Orlov	0	0	0	0	3	0.00	1	0	16:33
85	Shakir Mukhamadullin	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	1	5	15:02

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Alex Nedeljkovic	42	3	39	.929	4.58	+1.58

Calgary Flames

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
11	Mikael Backlund	0	1	1	+1	6	0.25	0	0	20:40
10	Jonathan Huberdeau	0	1	1	0	6	0.35	2	1	18:49
91	Nazem Kadri	0	0	0	0	8	0.62	0	0	18:07
16	Morgan Frost	1	1	2	+1	10	1.27	2	0	17:13
17	Yegor Sharangovich	0	0	0	-1	8	0.53	0	1	17:12
27	Matt Coronato	0	1	1	0	5	0.54	0	0	16:09
86	Joel Farabee	1	0	1	+1	3	0.30	0	1	15:35
92	Matvei Gridin	1	0	1	+1	6	0.25	0	1	15:20
43	Adam Klapka	0	0	0	0	3	0.16	4	0	13:23
47	Connor Zary	0	0	0	-1	1	0.15	0	1	12:54
94	Ryan Lomberg	0	0	0	0	3	0.05	1	1	09:15
76	Martin Pospisil	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	0	07:24
Defense
52	MacKenzie Weegar	0	1	1	0	10	0.09	1	4	26:17
7	Kevin Bahl	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	2	3	24:12
28	Zach Whitecloud	0	0	0	+1	3	0.17	1	1	20:01
37	Yan Kuznetsov	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	2	3	18:50
44	Joel Hanley	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	1	11:41
94	Brayden Pachal	0	0	0	0	5	0.04	4	0	10:34

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Dustin Wolf	25	2	23	.920	3.48	+1.48

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

San Jose Sharks

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
21 Alexander Wennberg C	+1.65	+0.70	+0.42	+0.42	+0.08	-0.04	+0.07	—	24:30
33 Alex Nedeljkovic G	+1.58	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.58	57:38
73 Tyler Toffoli C	+1.04	0.00	+0.36	+0.42	+0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	18:08
81 Adam Gaudette R	+0.98	+0.75	+0.34	-0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:09
2 Will Smith C	+0.77	+0.75	+0.42	-0.44	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	19:03
96 Philipp Kurashev C	+0.53	0.00	+0.09	+0.37	0.00	-0.02	+0.08	—	13:33
72 William Eklund L	+0.46	+0.70	+0.12	-0.54	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	14:35
77 Michael Misa C	+0.42	+0.55	+0.03	-0.11	0.00	-0.06	0.00	—	10:02
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin D	+0.10	0.00	+0.01	-0.31	+0.15	0.00	+0.25	—	15:02
6 Sam Dickinson D	-0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.07	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	19:24
71 Macklin Celebrini C	-0.14	0.00	+0.32	-0.43	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	23:40
38 Mario Ferraro D	-0.29	0.00	+0.04	-0.41	-0.08	0.00	+0.15	—	19:37
5 Vincent Desharnais D	-0.31	0.00	0.00	-0.29	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:01
75 Ryan Reaves R	-0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	6:33
23 Barclay Goodrow C	-0.47	0.00	+0.01	-0.49	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	10:23
3 John Klingberg D	-0.65	0.00	+0.07	-0.58	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	19:36
63 Zack Ostapchuk C	-0.94	0.00	0.00	-0.68	-0.30	+0.04	0.00	—	11:38
9 Dmitry Orlov D	-0.96	0.00	0.00	-0.77	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	16:33
51 Collin Graf R	-1.08	0.00	+0.04	-1.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	19:09

Calgary Flames

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
16 Morgan Frost C	+4.07	+1.45	+0.82	+1.37	+0.30	+0.12	0.00	—	17:13
92 Matvei Gridin R	+1.93	+0.75	+0.16	+0.96	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	15:20
10 Jonathan Huberdeau L	+1.89	+0.55	+0.23	+1.09	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	18:49
32 Dustin Wolf G	+1.48	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.48	59:51
86 Joel Farabee L	+1.08	+0.75	+0.20	+0.09	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	15:35
44 Joel Hanley D	+1.07	0.00	+0.01	+1.01	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	11:41
52 MacKenzie Weegar D	+1.00	+0.55	+0.06	+0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.16	—	26:17
7 Kevin Bahl D	+0.92	+0.55	0.00	+0.09	+0.15	0.00	+0.13	—	24:12
91 Nazem Kadri C	+0.90	0.00	+0.40	+0.63	-0.15	+0.02	0.00	—	18:07
27 Matt Coronato R	+0.84	+0.70	+0.35	-0.20	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	16:09
11 Mikael Backlund C	+0.78	+0.70	+0.16	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	—	20:40
94 Brayden Pachal D	+0.67	0.00	+0.03	+0.79	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	10:34
43 Adam Klapka R	+0.66	0.00	+0.11	+0.54	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	13:23
37 Yan Kuznetsov D	+0.30	0.00	+0.01	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	18:50
28 Zach Whitecloud D	+0.07	0.00	+0.11	+0.06	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	20:01
70 Ryan Lomberg L	+0.04	0.00	+0.03	+0.03	-0.08	0.00	+0.05	—	9:15
17 Yegor Sharangovich C	-0.04	0.00	+0.34	-0.61	+0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	17:12
76 Martin Pospisil C	-0.18	0.00	+0.02	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	—	7:24
47 Connor Zary C	-0.40	0.00	+0.10	-0.70	+0.15	+0.01	+0.05	—	12:54

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.